Man of the Vig

3.4K posts

Man of the Vig

Man of the Vig

@VigPolice

you can fade me but you cant fade the exchange endgame | business: [email protected]

Katılım Mart 2024
479 Takip Edilen2.9K Takipçiler
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
With prediction markets taking over the timeline en mass last week I thought it may be time to break out my longform cap. Wrote a little on where we are, where we’re going, and the hilarious delusion that is prediction markets twitter at the moment. open.substack.com/pub/manofthevi…
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Plus EV Analytics
Plus EV Analytics@PlusEVAnalytics·
Yes it's just a marketing example but if it's any indication, don't expect anything close to fair payouts on uncorrelated parlays. 10 / (.37*.48*.46) = 122.40
Plus EV Analytics tweet media
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
American Gaming Association and Victor Rocha fighting over who can make more bad faith arguments to defend their archaic monopolies instead of trying to compete
GIF
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
@musharbash_b Impossible to draw the conclusion of what is a false discount though. Raising markup and discounting more broadly ≠ false discounting.
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Basel Musharbash
Basel Musharbash@musharbash_b·
@VigPolice It only became rampant in the last decade due to no enforcement. But false discounting is, in fact, illegal.
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
@BigJohn043 Not sure how the DIP lenders thought the SPV & ABL Lenders (all of whom are likely underwater post admin/pro fees) fighting over existing WC assets and future cash payments wouldn’t crash this thing before exit. Literally impossible to ensure adequate protection.
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
L.O.L. Really buried the lead here that the bet was executed ~at a randomly higher amount~ and not just worse odds
Prediction Watch@PMwatchUS

🧵Live RFQ’s on @kalshi are problematic at the moment, with the ramifications endured exclusively by retail users. Video below. NO/TB line selected in the RFQ was 43.5. The actual request (and execution) was done at 49.5. Far more egregious, the quoted price of (cont’d ⬇️)

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Man of the Vig retweetledi
storm
storm@storm_pig·
First order of business: tell all your people with badges to stop tweeting such ridiculous shit
Elisabeth Diana@ediyork

I've joined @Kalshi as its new head of communications. Kalshi is like the stock market, but for real-world events: Will it rain tomorrow in NYC? Will Olivia Dean win the Best New Artist Grammy? The beauty of Kalshi is that everyone is an expert at something. Love music? There's a market for that. Obsessed with politics? There's a market for that. And because there's money on the line, people trade on what they think will happen vs. what they want to have happen. It's a more accurate indicator of what's happening in the world. So whether you want to trade on your expertise, or get a better understanding of what's going on in the world, check out Kalshi. (I'm still refining my pitch, but I figured this is my shot). kalshi.com/markets/kxgram…

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Robot James 🤖🏖
Robot James 🤖🏖@therobotjames·
stop trying to beat djokovic at tennis. the first fundamental problem traders run up against is that there's no beginners' market. you gotta compete for good prices with the best in the market. this is a problem. there are a lot of people better at markets than you.
Robot James 🤖🏖 tweet media
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Chris Fargis
Chris Fargis@cfargis·
I’m hiring a prediction markets expert to work with our product and operations teams and monitor our market offering and liquidity. Fun role, right in the middle of everything we’re doing. DMs are open - tell me one thing we should add or change to improve our offering.
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Louie
Louie@LMastro99·
@Flupnolide @DeRosa_Antonino it’s not the only way but you can incentivize a single side with promos, there’s a lot of room to play with when you’re taking +10 each way
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Antonino De Rosa
Antonino De Rosa@DeRosa_Antonino·
There is alot of chatter on twitter that sportsbooks can and will use prediction markets to offload risk. That imo will never happen, A sportsbook can move their line and offload risk at way better pricing. If a bookie does this mise as well change profession
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Kirk Evans
Kirk Evans@KirkEvans0·
@VigPolice Plaxico Burress Super Bowl winning catch like moment?
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
In honor of missing almost a month of substack posts I’ve decided to drop a week-long series on a range of topics. The first in that series releases tomorrow, and covers why the introduction of igaming to CFTC-governed markets would be a Plaxico Burress moment for the industry
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
@Nostroah @canzhi @eightyhi @ShipTheJustice This isn’t adhi’s point though. He’s arguing that comparable sportsbooks would see outperformance by those who hedge through deeper liquidity and tighter spreads. It’s the equivalent of arguing selling goods at wholesale allows retailers to expand margins.
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Noah Zingler-Sternig
Noah Zingler-Sternig@Nostroah·
They might not be able to stomach $10m in downside if they are a smaller book, but would prefer to continue offering the prop to their users instead of imposing limits or moving lines in a way that makes them inferior to their competitors. We don’t have to agree on this. Underdog is doing it, and that’s enough evidence for this being a valid use case. If I ran a book and started hitting risk maximums for a certain prop, I’d rather continue offering it (capture some vig and retain users) before I remove the prop from my platform. It’s not the optimal way to do things, but it’s better than pulling an offering completely. TLDR: Shouldn’t be necessary often, but is a good risk mitigation tool if you have certain internal constraints and risk management.
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Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
Adhi Rajaprabhakaran@eightyhi·
sportsbooks themselves are going to be the biggest whales on sports prediction markets. the counter I hear about this is that "sportsbooks don't want to hedge, they want the risk". that's true, but you can scale your risk-taking operation far more when you have the ability to delta-hedge. DraftKings is essentially just a really convoluted hedge fund that takes on massive PnL volatility. it is something that equities investors have lived with for now because it was the best (only) way to access the sports-betting fish. going forward, capital will be allocated to the trading strategies that scale with durable risk management and high Sharpe ratios. think Jane Street instead of DraftKings. you simply can't do that without deep, global liquidity pools. I think this is perhaps the most underrated aspect of prediction markets - they'll completely revolutionize the business model of sports events risk-takers.
Luana Lopes Lara@luanalopeslara

yes. ingame.com/underdog-kalsh…

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Noah Zingler-Sternig
Noah Zingler-Sternig@Nostroah·
@VigPolice @eightyhi @canzhi @ShipTheJustice I don’t expect sports books to try and hedge every bet they take on (that would be unreasonable and crush their margins). When a book has $10m on one side of a Super Bowl player prop… it makes sense to offload some risk.
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
Sportsbooks are a bank derivative btw, thanks for coming to my ted talk.
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
@eightyhi @canzhi @ShipTheJustice Sportsbook investors (as with bank investors) desire the deployment of capital to the extent it does not pose undue risk, that’s is the thesis. All books trade at a multiple of future earnings, which includes expected return. Less risk = less future returns = lower share price
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
@ShipTheJustice @eightyhi Great point (as usual). Imo if shareholders realized the bleed from accidental negative hold markets they’d riot… now imagine that reaction if they found out they were taking a haircut to smooth some volatility that wouldn’t have an operational impact.
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The Shipper
The Shipper@ShipTheJustice·
the true area where vol actually hurts you is when it is a singular point of failure if books really want to get off liability you want to do it in a way that provides multiple points of value. give your vips some boost to play back against your giga whale to in order to smooth out the value, and then that retains the $ inside of the ecosystem 1 giga whale giving $ to 10 whales is an example where smoothing out vol is actually valuable
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Man of the Vig
Man of the Vig@VigPolice·
@ShipTheJustice @eightyhi The argument for laying off risk implies a limited capital base to absorb losses, which shouldn’t really be an issue for anyone of size. Imagine where banks would trade if they sold off all risk for a scalp instead of taking advantage of their deposit base.
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The Shipper
The Shipper@ShipTheJustice·
@eightyhi i didnt really pay much attention in finance school but did pay enough attention to understand that you should be compensated for risk this matters where the margins are really fine. the margins are not fine here at all these books should almost never hedge
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Keşfet

@PlusEVAnalytics @musharbash_b @BigJohn043 @therobotjames @eightyhi @shwin_m @cfargis @LMastro99