VivereCapital

🔮 2025 forecast: Heading towards major market top ⚠️ -📉$SPX: overall structure is up early in the year, 10%+ correction, then melt up into major top, followed by ~17% drop that kicks off a bear market: ⬆️ Up till ~Jan 17 (~6250) then 10%+ correction by end of Q1 (~5600 target) 🎁 Buy points ~Feb 26 and second half of Mar (ideal date is Mar 28). This is primary buy point for the year setting up final leg up for the cycle 🎁 Minor buy point ~June 27 ⚠️ Major top ~July 17, then Aug 22 ether lower high or double top/divergent high with 6500 min target I outlined a few times past 3 years & ~7000 upside target 🎯 🔽 Down into ~Oct 27 (seasonal low & nested cycle lows), then bounce which fails 📉 $SPX ends the year red setting up disastrous 2026. YE Target 🎯 5650 -🅱️ $BTC: Deep retest into March low, followed by 1 more run at the highs early summer; after which crypto starts multi year bear market. IMO high probability that next 4 year cycle (2026+) will be left translated and Saylor & $MSTR will be liquidated and $USDT #tether fraud will also likely be exposed, while almost all alts lose 99-100%. Right now it’s unclear if BTC will act more as a NASDAQ proxy or monetary hedge in the years ahead. Many alts have potentially peaked for the cycle but some like $ETH have more upside. -💲 $DXY: Dollar likely to remain in uptrend into 2025-26. There is a potential pullback early in the year helping risk assets to push higher, then a rally into spring (risk assets sell off). Then big correction in $USD into July-Aug low which should coincide with the market top -💶 $EUR: 18M low is due and likely falls ~March '25. The subsequent 18M cycle is likely left translated with a drop into 2026 4Y cycle low where targeting below par vs USD -💹 $JPY : I’m still looking for #yen to start a secular multi year uptrend which will results in trillions in capital to be pulled back from US back to Japan 🇯🇵 during years ahead -📈 $TNX: bonds remain in a secular bear market so any rally in bonds will be cyclical (growth scare/recession) followed by a big rates rally. There is a potential counter rally in bonds in Q1 2025 which will fail. $TNX technical target is 5.5% -💰 #Gold: given that 2022 was 8 year cycle low, we have bullish IT/LT bias. There is a potential low in spring with ~$2400 support, then push higher towards high $2800-$3000+ into 2026. CBs won’t stop buying as war cycle and geopol tensions intensify while governments debase currencies. -🪙 #Silver: post consolidation, next target is $38 next 6Qs -⚡️🛢️☢️ #Energy: all energy should be in uptrend next 6-8Qs; NatGas likely being the leader (new ATH in ‘26), oil 80s in spring and 100, then 150 in 2026, uranium back to 100+ in 2025, coal as well. My oil leading indicators and cycles suggest a big move next 2 years but exact timing of expansion is hard to pinpoint, potentially ~end of 2025 into 2026. -🏦 Macro: GDP growth ideal cycle top is mid-2025 while unemployment should continue rising into 2026 suggesting recession could come in early 2026 or even end of 2025. -💦 Liquidity 5Y cycle peaks ~mid-2025 and should roll over which will a major issue for historically overpriced equities and crypto. The big question is with RRP drained, if/when Fed will provide liquidity to support asset prices without real economic reason to. -Commentary below 👇