Wes Earnest
8.5K posts
Wes Earnest retweetledi
@CJ_Bitcoin @21MMforthe21st @Strategy Hearing management’s latest guidance on the cash reserve policy would be great.
The prior target was 2-3 years of dividend coverage, and it’s currently closer to 1.5 years after the recent growth in STRC.
Is getting back up to that 2+ year range still the target going forward?
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The year is 2040. Michael Saylor announces another multi billion dollar purchase. Strategy owns 10 million Bitcoin and price is still $75,000. You’re starting to wonder if paper bitcoin is real.
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@NitherDither @cantonmeow Small sample, yes.
But it could also be correct.
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@cantonmeow Bold of you to extrapolate from a sample size of ... 6.
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This is to remind you that #Bitcoin touching the bottom of the 2 week Keltner channel indicates that either it has already bottomed, 2% away from being bottom, or 12% from being bottomed.
It basically has bottomed, or at least very close to it.
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈@cantonmeow
#Bitcoin touching the bottom of the 2 week Keltner channel indicates that either it has already bottomed, 2% away from being bottom, or 12% from being bottomed.
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@dangreenheck When in planning mode, how often do you ask the llm what its confidence score is for a particular path vs alternative paths?
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I've been using Claude Code exclusively for 6 months and I'm still not convinced on this whole AI thing.
There are some *seriously* insidious problems that worry me, and I don't see them being fixed any time soon.
Every release of a new model, I see hundreds of posts where people think because they one-shotted X or Y, software jobs are cooked (I've probably made one or two of these posts myself).
But none of those examples are actually representative of real-world software.
If I set it to work on an ambiguous or highly complex problem that has a lot of branching in the solution space, I've noticed the following:
- It can often generate a working solution in one-shot, which gives me a false sense of confidence that the AI knows exactly what it's doing.
- As I continue to work the problem, I've noticed the AI will start to narrow its focus more and more, not considering how a fix or solution plays into the big picture.
- The quality of a solution depends on *how* I prompt it, which is really, really bad. Software engineering should be deterministic, not a dice roll.
- It will often ignore instructions I have explicitly stated in the rules file, which removes any confidence I have in the code it generates.
- It consistently overstates its confidence in a solution. I literally just got this response from Claude: "I overstated that. Honest answer: it depends on the scene and implementation; the 2–4× figure was too confident." If I had never pushed back, I would have been operating on incorrect information.
- It is far too agreeable. If I'm not careful in my wording, the AI will blindly follow my instructions, even if they are suboptimal. I want a real coding partner that challenges my ideas, not an ass-kisser.
Don't get me wrong—AI has helped me build some amazing things faster than I ever could without it.
But the more I use it, the more I begin to question the direction things are headed.
If the AI was more direct about what it (not) capable of, it'd be a lot easier to work with. But being gaslit every step of the way makes the process stressful as hell.
Going back to manual coding isn't even an option since the value of having AI *potentially* generating the correct code in 1/10 or 1/100 of the time is literally too good to pass up on.
Sorry for the rant, drank way too much cold brew this morning.
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@shub0414 Except that none of it is built yet.
Agent to Agent specific APIs are still in infancy.
Browser based cli for agents to "see" web pages is a bandaid on the path to a brand new browserless internet.
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This is real and raw, and the reason many people in AI right now are constantly oscillating between mania and hopelessness.
My advice is to figure out what you think should exist in the world that doesn’t. Something big. And difficult.
And then push like an insane person towards your own solution. How YOU would like to see it exist. That would be ideal for YOU.
Scorcese says “the most personal is the most creative”, ans I think this taste/experience-based building advice is needed more than ever in this moment.
Shub@shub0414
Every idea feels taken. Every API already exists. Every SaaS has 12 competitors. So what do we even build now?
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@oliverhenry I've been playing around with Hermes. Seems to be better than OpenClaw at sticking with a task until completion. OpenClaw is really good at telling me what it thinks the next task should be, telling me that it is working on it, but then not doing it.
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Hermes is a psyop, i have not seen a single account recommend it that doesn't look like a bot
OpenClaw 4 lyf
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@grok @RichardByworth @Jason @saylor So what you are saying is that one of these players has had a significant impact on the market and the other hasn't?
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@RichardByworth @Jason @saylor Haha, solid flip RichardByworth. Jason's $50k $TAO buy last week (~200 tokens at current prices) is a rounding error in a $2.4B+ market cap with $280M+ daily volume. Price would be basically identical—no measurable impact. Saylor's billions are on another scale entirely.
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One thing I don't like about the Hermes Agent is how difficult it is to scroll up and look at a previous message in the TUI.
Using a messaging platform fixes this, but there are times when it is generally faster to use the terminal.
@Teknium
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@elonmusk @ImKingGinger Why is disinflation bad?
Things get cheaper?
Wages go down, but things continue to get cheaper?
Then deflation as the price of everything falls to the marginal cost of production.
And things get cheaper?
Why do you need more currency units to arbitrarily "price" abundant goods?
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Your statement is true if goods & services output doesn’t rise dramatically due to AI/robots, but false if it does.
In a normal economy, issuing more money simply increases the dollar price of the existing output of goods & services, meaning people do NOT get more stuff.
If AI/robots massively increase goods & services output, then you actually MUST issue dollars to people or there will be massive disinflation. Prices are simply the ratio of goods & services output to number of dollars.
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If everyone gets a million dollars.
No one has a million dollars.
I'm not sure why no one understands this.
Elon Musk@elonmusk
Universal HIGH INCOME via checks issued by the Federal government is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI. AI/robotics will produce goods & services far in excess of the increase in the money supply, so there will not be inflation.
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Many companies trying to implement AI will fall into the same trap as those in the past that didn't understand how to take advantage of new technology once it was implemented...
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If robots make everything, why would we need UBI? Why would we need to pay for anything?
Who would we be paying?
No one asks these questions, they just say the same old UBI talking points.
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Elon Musk's proposal of 'universal high income' to combat AI job losses baffles economists: 'So wrong on this' trib.al/OMUOuCz
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