What Scotland Thinks

NEW: Survation Holyrood MRP Survation’s final Holyrood poll indicates that the SNP is almost certain to form the next government, albeit without an overall majority. Our MRP estimates that the SNP are likely to win 59 seats - six short of the 65 needed for a majority, with a tight race for second place between Reform UK and Labour. survation.com/final-survatio…

Find Out Now Scottish Parliament voting intention Constituency: 🟨 SNP: 41% 🟦 Reform UK: 17% 🔴 Labour: 15% 🟠 Lib Dems: 12% 🔵 Conservatives: 10% 🟢 Greens: 1% Regional: 🟨 SNP: 26% 🟦 Reform UK: 18% 🟢 Greens: 17% 🔴 Labour: 12% 🟠 Lib Dems: 11% 🔵 Conservatives: 11%

Final Holyrood voting intention on the eve of the election. SNP still lead but their vote share has dipped in the final week of the campaign - and Labour making last-minute gains. Fieldwork: 30 April - 4 May

NEW Holyrood voting intention from @IpsosScotland and @STVNews 🟡The SNP are comfortably ahead on 35%, -4 from 26-31 March 🔴Second place is too close to call: Labour on 20% (+5), Reform UK close behind on 18% (+3) while Conservatives trail on 11% (N/C) tied with Lib Dems (+1)

Seat projections, based on MRP model and poll of 6,543 Scots: 🟡SNP 62 (-2 vs 2021} ➡️Reform UK 19 (+19) 🔴 Labour 17 (-5) 🟢Green 16 (+8) 🟠LibDem 8 (+4) 🔵Con 7 (-24) Full write up ⬇️

Implied vote shares as below: Constituency: 🟡 SNP 35% (-13) ➡️ Reform UK 19% (+19) 🔴Labour 17% (-5) 🔶 Liberal Democrats 13% (+6) 🔵 Conservatives 13% (-9) 💚 Greens 2% (+1) List 🟡 SNP 26% (-14) ➡️ Reform UK 22% (+22) 🔴Labour 15% (-3) 🔶 Liberal Democrats 12% (+7) 🔵 Conservatives 11% (-13) 💚 Greens 11% (+3) Change with 2021

Join us on Thursday 4 June, in London or online, for the launch of two BSA chapters on: 1️⃣ Attitudes towards higher education 2️⃣ What drives Reform voters? Register here: natcen.ac.uk/events/british… 🎤 Speakers include: ➡️Sir John Curtice @whatukthinks – Senior Research Fellow, NatCen ➡️Alex Scholes @AlexScholes6 – Research Director, NatCen ➡️Professor Diana Beech, Director of the Finsbury Institute, City St George's ➡️Annabel Denham @AnnabelDenham1, Columnist and Senior Political Commentator, The Telegraph ➡️Sara Rajeswaran, Trustee, NatCen #BritishSocialAttitudes #BSA43 #UKPolitics #HigherEducation #SocialResearch

On the potential impact of tactical voting in #SP26. scotsman.com/news/opinion/c…

SNP set to win but fall short of a majority in Holyrood election #Echobox=1777741268" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">thetimes.com/uk/scotland/ar…

Holyrood Voting Intention: Constituency: SNP: 38% (+3) RFM: 20% (=) LAB: 18% (-2) CON: 12% (-1) LDM: 10% (=) GRN: 2% (+1) Regional: SNP: 29% (=) RFM: 19% (=) LAB: 17% (=) CON: 12% (-1) GRN: 12% (+1) LDM: 9% (+1) Via @Survation, 17–23 Apr. Changes w/ 14–21 Apr.

On the #sp26 campaign polls to date. bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

NEW: Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Constituency Vote) SNP 35% RFM 20% LAB 20% CON 13% LD 10% GRN 1% F/w 14th-21st April 2026. Read more: survation.com/snp-tracking-t… 🧵1/4

EXCLUSIVE SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: SNP and Greens on course to win nearly TWO-THIRDS of Holyrood seats and a pro-independence SUPERMAJORITY - SNP overall majority still a possibility - Labour slump to dismal FIFTH place in the seats projection: scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2026/04/exclus…

🧵Our First Holyrood MRP, out today estimates the balance of power on a knife edge between pro independence & pro unionist majority. With the Scottish Greens winning their first constituency seats, Reform UK breaking through in Scotland and many constituency seats on a knife edge

NEW 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Holyrood voting intention. SNP lead by 13 points but their constituency share is down 15 since the 2021 SPE - set to lose nearly a third of their 2021 support, and potentially the lowest vote share for a winning Scottish party since devolution. (24/03 - 10/04) N = 1,046

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿The SNP is on track for a majority – and a fresh referendum on breaking up the UK in the May elections Read more about The Telegraph's exclusive poll⬇️ telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/…

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP are on course for a small majority SNP: 67 (+3 from 2021) Ref: 20 (+20) Lab: 15 (-7) Grn: 11 (+3) LD: 9 (+5) Con: 7 (-24)

NEW Scottish Political Monitor from @IpsosScotland and @STVNews 🟡SNP remain ahead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 39% of the constituency vote share, +3 from Ipsos’ poll taken 19 – 25 February. 🔴Scottish Labour fall to 15%, (-5). 🔵Reform UK are at 15%, (-1).

Our new MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for the @ScotNational predicts a narrow outright majority for the SNP in the Holyrood elections. Predicted results SNP: 67 LAB: 17 Reform: 14 Green: 14 CON: 9 LIB: 8 Full data and tables here ⬇️ electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_scotm…

NEW: We commissioned a major MRP poll - it predicts the result of every single constituency in the Scottish election PLUS who would win on the regional lists The poll, from Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, predicts an SNP majority and 14 Green seats thenational.scot/news/25998625.…