William

How A $100M+ Trader Actually Reads The Market 🚨 Lance Breitstein breaks down the framework behind one of the best trades of his career and why sentiment extremes create the biggest opportunities. Full episode 👇

What is going on with $ONDS price action lately? Why is $ONDS short interest so high despite all the good news? Do yourself a favor and read this entire post if you want the real answer. First, you have to understand the $1B offering the company closed in January. The deal included 2 warrants per share with a strike price of $28. They don’t expire until 2033. Those are long-dated upside bets. The investor only generates meaningful returns if $ONDS is well above $28. So why does short interest look elevated? Because investors who own warrants often short stock to hedge their exposure. They can’t afford to leave their massive long position unprotected. It’s a common strategy in structured deals like this. Which means much of the short interest people see comes from hedging, NOT bearish bets. Importantly, the downward pressure this puts on the stock is often temporary. As the company continues executing and the stock trends higher over time: • warrants gain value • hedge positions get reduced • short shares get bought back This turns the downward pressure into fuel for an explosive upward move. Meanwhile the business execution has been extremely strong: • Guidance being raised • Contracts coming in bi-weekly • Revenue growth accelerating And for additional context: All 8 analysts covering $ONDS rate the stock a Buy, with a median price target ~70% above current levels. A lot of investors say they’ll wait until the “warrant overhang” clears. But markets rarely wait for the structure to fully resolve. Sometimes the bigger risk isn’t owning too early. It’s realizing what the setup meant after the temporary pressure was gone.

I don’t really care what the $ONDS fanboys are saying, the daily chart is flirting with disaster here. Price faked everyone out yesterday with a nasty upper wick rejection right at the top of the daily cloud, which technically marked a lower high on the higher timeframe. Now it’s already back below the cloud just a day later. That’s not a bullish look, folks. Meanwhile the daily RSI is rolling back over and looks ready to continue pressing lower in what has been a pretty clear bearish momentum trend. I'm in the camp this is going much lower.