Winston941

THIS IS INSANE 🇺🇸 Out of 45 U.S. presidents in history, President Trump is now solely responsible for 27.7% of the national debt.

The most demoralizing chart you will see today

An MIT study shows 95% of companies that instituted AI say it is a failure. AI is a boondoggle. No one likes it. No one likes Waymo’s. No one likes help calls answered by bots. No one wants their finances, legal or medical handled by bots. AI will crash and burn. Shut it off!

Revenue: +16% ✅ Cash flow from operations: +25% ✅ Free cash flow: –32% 🚨 This is Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle. Combined. The most profitable companies in human history. And their free cash flow just turned sharply negative. Because AI CapEx is consuming everything they earn — and more. The AI CapEx cycle is front-loading accounting profits across the entire S&P 500 supply chain. When the spending slows — and it always does — the earnings revision cycle hits hard. The market is staring at the revenue line. The smart money is watching free cash flow. These two lines are telling completely different stories right now. Which one is telling the truth? You know which one…

I think $USDJPY and $SMH are directly correlated - liquidity is abundant, and at moment's notice market can rug pull late participants. In July - September 2024 period, I recall $USDJPY carry trade blowing up and taking $SMH down with it ~20%.

Here’s a look at stock market concentrations during historical bubbles.

NEVER in history has the Heavy Truck Index 2-year rate of change fallen below -25% without a recession following. Have market dynamics really changed, or is it just a matter of time?

This isn’t fear or trepidation. It’s full blown euphoria. Call volume has reached moronic levels. Good luck to anyone who even tries telling me that this time is different. It’s not. And frankly, it’s difficult to even have a rational conversation about what we’re witnessing.

I would like to highlight something rather important yet incredibly ignored: despite the 10$ crash in oil futures prices since last week, the JPY hasn’t moved an inch. I read this as a sign long term macro investors aren’t seeing any real improvement and a oil spike crashing Japan is still a scenario they are positioned for

Per Slok, 87% of VC funding is directed at AI, 49% of investment grade bond issuance is AI, and 38% of high yield bond issuance is linked to AI. During the internet boom, in 1999, less than 40% of VC funding was linked to internet companies. Broadening to the wider tech-media-telecom (TMT) bubble, in 1999, VC funding for TMT hit 80% of all funding. TMT bonds were 40-50% of the high yield bond issuance in 2000 and 25-30% of total investment grade bond issuance. Over $100B investment grade debt issued in 1999-2000 became junk by 2002. High yield debt at 38% today vs 40%-50% back then belies the idea that today’s AI debt issuance is cleaner, backed by more profitable companies today.

BREAKING: Two sources close to Trump's negotiation team say Trump is now completely backing away from the US-Iran deal, under "extreme internal pressure from Israel and its US domestic allies," urging him not to accept Iran‘s terms. After this, Trump posted an image of Mark 84 bomb on a fighter jet, with his signature "Thank you for your attention to this matter" catchphrase stenciled directly on the bomb, on Truth Social. Iran earlier warned already that the agreement "will be completely cancelled" due to ongoing US obstruction on key clauses. The deal that never existed is now publicly collapsing.

🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE. Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon. This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop. But how it works ? A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers. Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI. When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer. The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale. This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop. Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time. This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit. In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain. While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers. This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone. This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales. Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt. The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules. This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.

@BullBear_Beacon If TLT hits $120 we will be in a severe recession. Not good for stocks at all.

$TLT large call spread add for 1/21/28 and some extra calls. $15.6M in 105C $4.6M in 120C sold This position was started on May 20th with around 35k contract. Yesterday's activity increases it by 200%. $3.3M in 100C for 5/21/27 If these realize it would be very bullish stocks.

BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump's claim that Hormuz "will be opened" as part of a "largely negotiated" agreement he just posted on Truth Social, saying Trump's claim is "far from the truth" and that Hormuz "will remain under Iranian management" with Iran retaining exclusive permanent authority over route, timing, method, and permits, per Fars. Iran also confirms the nuclear file has not been discussed and that American officials themselves have told Iran in multiple messages that "Trump's tweets are primarily for domestic American propaganda and media consumption" and "should be disregarded." The "largely negotiated" deal claim therefore has no basis.

AI energy, materials and water needs might be the catalyst for the 4th turning kicking into high gear. Might turn out that human workers will be cheaper than AI, given resource limitations. Imagine that!

The AI bubble math doesn't add up. Anthropic spends $3 to make $1 and that’s before you include any and all other costs like staff or electricity. Microsoft dumped $300B in capex, made ~$18B in AI revenue. OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up 43-54% of Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle's entire revenue backlogs. Enterprises are burning through annual AI budgets in 4 months with zero measurable ROI. This is the most expensive science experiment in history, funded by your SaaS subscriptions.

@charliebilello Stock market falls 10% and it will reverse very quick.

Jan 1: bond market pricing in 2 Fed rate CUTS in 2026. Today: bond market pricing in 1 Fed rate HIKE in 2026. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=pJGsJO…

"The wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when the odds are in their favor. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple." — Charlie Munger.

Exit Financing: They want to dump these shares into your 401k (S&P 500): Valuation SpaceX: $1.5T Anthropic: $1.1T OpenAI: $852B Combined total today: $3.5T One year ago SpaceX: $400B Anthropic: $61.B OpenAI: $300B Combined total: $762B cnbc.com/video/2026/05/…

Every. Single. Time.