XAT

$ASTS BlueBird convoy spotted at 8:29 AM CDT, about 17 miles east of Big Spring, TX. 📷 32.3252, -101.2019.

DEEPSEEK IS SAID TO PREPARE FOR IPO FILING AS SOON AS THIS YEAR - BLOOMBERG

$ASTS: AST just updated their website with a new MNO map . This is probably the most detailed when/where map they have published yet.

$SPCX If you’re lucky enough to get allocated SpaceX shares, have a plan before it starts trading. Getting shares in a hot IPO can be a great opportunity. But it does not mean you have to hold forever. Nothing against SpaceX. It’s one of the most important companies in the world, and I believe it will be a massive long term company. But the problem with hot IPOs is that by the time retail investors get excited, a lot of the good news may already be priced in. We’ve seen this before. For example Coinbase had huge hype when it went public. Robinhood had huge retail attention. Rivian was one of the hottest IPOs ever. Instacart popped on day one too. In many of these cases, the first few days looked exciting, then the stock cooled off hard after the initial hype faded. That doesn’t mean SpaceX can’t be different. It just means valuation, expectations, lockup periods, early profit taking, and hype all matter. So if you are allocated shares of SpaceX, you should not treat it like an automatic “hold forever” decision. You should treat it like an opportunity where taking profits early may make sense. And if you don’t get allocated shares, you should not be chasing the first-day excitement. It’s better to wait 6+ months or wait for the first major pullback than buy into maximum hype. SpaceX is an amazing company. But even amazing companies can be bad buys at the wrong price. Not financial advice.

$ASTS This supplement filed by AST in response to some requested information about their 900MHz STA is interesting. Interesting what IS and what ISN'T redacted in the submission. As a reminder, STA is for testing, evaluating, demonstrating radiolocation capabilities for SDA.

$ASTS Update First of all, no current position in the stock. My general thoughts are pretty consistent with what I've said previously. I think the price has gotten in-line with/ahead of its fundamental business value (not fundamental financials, because those are largely irrelevant). What do I think it's worth as a business? Scenario A — Company is not very successful, gets $500M–$1B/year in revenues either due to market competition/constraints/etc. Company worth $3–10B. Scenario B — Company attains most of its technical goals, gets $2–5B/year in revenues. Company worth $20–30B. Scenario C — Company does very well, $10B/year in revenues. Company worth $30–80B. Scenario D — Company exceeds expectations, $50B/year in revenues. Company worth $250–500B. I like the prospects of (B) or (C) happening, and I've thought that ever since the stock was $6. I read the real-time stream of spacemob tweets, and I can see the path to D slowly forming, but I have no confidence in MY ability to forecast whether the company has a 2% or 25% chance of making that happen. Considering the current fully diluted market cap is around $35B (use an average rolling price, since any given week it moves around 25%), and given that $10B+ of revenues is, in my opinion, at least 3 years away, I don't really know why I'd hold a significant position in the stock. A lot of unknowns still need to work out for B/C to happen, let alone D. Yes, you can play the game of "the multiple will obviously be higher," but that's not a game I play. Also consider that my personal strategy is to look for stuff that is contrarian in nature: overlooked, under-appreciated. Those aren't the characteristics of ASTS anymore. Plus, a common comment is that staying on top of ASTS's fundamental developments was a full-time job on its own. I agree with that sentiment, and I think my time is better spent following stuff that has less "action" than ASTS. Obviously this is not financial advice, and to be clear, this doesn't mean I don't like the company or stock. I barely have a position in Sphere anymore and that's been my darling for years. Sometimes you just gotta let the little ones grow up and fly the coop! I'll revisit if the stock price or fundamental developments change materially. Disclosure: No Position in ASTS Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds may hold positions in securities discussed. Views expressed are current opinions for informational educational only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link above for more important information.