Israeli_Harry

$ODD just announced their earnings will be June 2nd This is a full month later than it has typically been. It wouldn't surprise me that they are extending it as far as possible in order to buy time to find good news to report (an ad campaign that works for example). So far, there has been no recovery in Google Trends for $ODD's IL Makiage. It is seasonally worse than any previous May since 2020. The Try Before You Buy Program is gone from their website. As a DTC company, nearly all of their ads were for TBYB since it launched in 2019. They guided for essentially no new customer revenue in Q1. They can only live so long off of subscription revenue which will churn over time. It is risky to own this stock going into earnings, as we know nothing about their future unit economics. For B2C products, distribution is a key pillar and where moats are made. We don't know if they have any distribution channels at scale that can generate profit off of advertising costs anymore. They don't know either (they are hopeful, but what else would they say?). Valuing a business that lost its new cohort engine based on cash is also risky, as they will burn that cash in order to fix the company, not return it to shareholders. As they burn it overtime, generally stocks will re-rate downward to reflect this. When you are dealing with this level of uncertainty, and still want to be bullish, allocation size is key. Best of luck to Oddity shareholders. FYI - I share my thoughts on Odd occasionally because Meta and Meta ads are in my circle of competence.

תנועת המלקחיים של AI + שער הדולר על עובדי ההייטק הישראלי, היא אירוע דרמטי שאנחנו רואים רק את ההתחלה שלו. מצד אחד צריך פחות מפתחים כי בינה, ומצד שני יש פחות כסף בקופה, והפיתוי להעסיק בעולם צמוד דולר חסר תנודתיות, הולך וגדל. זה הולך כמובן להשפיע ישירות על הביקוש לנדל״ן בישראל.

$NICE #נייס מפתיעה לרעה בינתים אבל.. פספסתי כאן תמיכה משמעותית נוספת באזור 90$. בנוסף יש כאן פוטנציאל לסטייה שורית אם הנייר יעלה מעל אזור 95-96$. שימו לב למתנד RSI שעולה לעומת המניה שממשיכה לרדת. ולכן לאור הסיבות שציינתי, הכפלתי כמות כאן באזור 90$ (ממוצע חדש סביב 94$) וחורג מאחד מכללי הברזל שלי ומוריד סטופ לאזור 83$. הצלחות!

Holy $SEDG and $ENPH. I didn't get nearly enough on.