H Chan 🐼 🪂

حفرولو قبره... #عامل

Finally, the identity of the Palestinian fighter who changed the oil on a moving Merkava tank in Gaza has been revealed. His name is Karim Abu Arja.

@DrAllyLouks @FeiKhal Where can I buy

@FeiKhal What in the fresh hell?

Already reported it but this seems kinda fucked up right? Pretty obvious who this is trying to impersonate?

Not sure anyone read all of it yet. Does it have anything to do with us?

@bronzeageshawty Great in both

135 lbs → 105 lbs

Thoughts on the not strait Strait overnight Numbers now straight back to single figures with both blockades/control mechanisms now back in force. Looks like c.6 made it out last night under Irans control. A few more tried but turned around under US warning - not clear how many. Yesterday afternoon, four cruise liners escaped using deceptive AIS, heading for Oman’s inshore traffic zone (ITZ) and then hugging the Musandam Peninsula (Oman’s northern tip). UKMTO reports that one of them saw splashes nearby - possible strike attempt. This is absolutely not a commercial solution, in fact it’s madness really, but it does raise some interesting points: ➡️Iran’s SA in the strait is not watertight (it used to be) ➡️Hugging the coast like that makes missile targeting harder as their targeting radars and missile seeker heads (if relevant) get back-scatter from the rocks ➡️Having said that, Iran’s targeting and missile accuracy clearly v poor in this case. ➡️It would not be difficult to pre-position a few armed & disguised fast skiffs down there to prevent this from happening again ➡️The channel there is quite deep ➡️No mines (in the ITZ) ➡️Under normal conditions, Oman would spot you and call you up if you tried this. They were either aware (which will rile Iran) or worked it out and kept quiet. Overall, with IRGC leadership seemingly consolidating their leadership position, the likelihood of Iran releasing control of the Strait just now seems slim. It’s not yet clear if the US blockade is causing sufficient pain to become a decent negotiating lever. However…there are some major US ship movements to note: ➡️USS Ford strike group has transited Suez and now operating in the Red Sea again ➡️The USS George HW Bush strike group is heading to the GOO having routed round the Cape (not via Suez) ➡️The USS Boxer Amphibious Ready Group (with the 11th MEU embarked) continues to close the GOO. Potentially all three of these groups could arrive at the end of this month to join the Lincoln Strike Group and Tripoli ARG that are already there. This number of ships, destroyers, aircraft, marines and submarines all in the GOO would give CENTCOM significant escalation options come 22 Apr and the end of the ceasefire.

Scale test of the cable capture system that will be used at sea to attempt to recover the Long March 10B first stage. Via Vony7 on Weibo.

@AvidCommentator Doubt Tehran wants guaranteed no further attacks and nuke makes that much more certain

Considering that Iran has put limiting nuclear enrichment on the table numerous times over the years, that doesn't seem like it will be one of the final sticking points. The major one in my mind is security guarantees for Tehran to feel comfortable with making a deal with an enemy they deeply mistrust and for good reason.

1/17 It's a somewhat known fact that the soviet tanks had a problem of being very similiar in many regards but using different sizes of bolts, nuts, screws etc. and sometimes needing specialist tools. But rarely is it mentioned how severe the problem was, time for a short thread!

"Will Iran Attempt to Break the Blockade? The key question centers on Iran's willingness to attempt a forceful breakthrough. The Islamic Republic's surface fleet is significantly inferior to the American fleet in terms of capabilities; consequently, Tehran will most likely rely on a strategy of asymmetric response. "Iran will employ Shahed-type 'kamikaze' drones to overwhelm the air defense systems of American warships. Alternatively, it may attempt to strike targets using shore-based anti-ship missile systems," added Dmitry Kornev. One must also not discount the threat posed by unmanned surface vessels and autonomous underwater drones packed with explosives. Such a threat would compel the US to keep its fleet as far as possible from the Iranian coastline to avoid exposing it to undue risk; experts note that even the damage of a single major warship—let alone its loss—would deal a severe blow to the American image. However, the question remains: how long and how successfully will Iran be able to sustain such attacks? It is capable of inflicting a one-off blow against the American squadron, but conducting a sustained operation to lift the blockade on the bay—given the United States' overwhelming technological superiority—would be extremely difficult. "At this moment, the likelihood of successfully breaking the blockade by force appears low, although the risk of direct combat engagements remains significant," concluded Dmitry Kornev. **Why the US Is Imposing a Blockade** The decision by US Central Command to initiate a naval blockade of Iran serves as a classic example of a "symmetrical response" in geopolitics. Washington's primary objective here is crystal clear: to compel Tehran to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, according to Middle East expert Kirill Semenov. "The situation is unfolding according to the 'mirror principle.' Iran blocked a key transport artery—the Strait of Hormuz—and in response, the US is attempting to completely paralyze Iranian shipping and port operations. In effect, Washington is saying: 'Your ships won't move an inch until you reopen the strait to the global community,'" he explained. The Strait of Hormuz displayed on a mobile phone screen. Photo: IZVESTIA / Sergey Lantyukhov According to the expert, this maneuver reflects several strategic calculations on the part of the Trump administration. The first is to avoid direct military escalation. At this stage, a blockade of the ports appears to be an attempt to resolve the issue without resorting to full-scale airstrikes or an invasion. The US is attempting to fight Iran using its own weapon: creating a logistical and economic impasse. "The second objective is the diplomatic isolation of Iran," suggests Kirill Semenov. "If Tehran decides to respond to the blockade by attacking American bases in the region—or the ports of Arab states in the Persian Gulf—global perceptions of the conflict will shift." In this scenario, the Iranian side risks losing even minimal international support, as it would appear to be the instigator of a "hot" phase of the war. It is evident that a blockade will not yield immediate results. However, after a certain period—and this timeframe is unlikely to be short—the economic pressure could prove critical. The strategy relies on the premise that mounting domestic problems will compel Iran's leadership to back down, Semenov noted. Other nations would also suffer from a blockade of the strait, experts point out. "For China—the United States' primary geopolitical rival—this is not particularly alarming. Its oil reserves are sufficient to last for nearly 300 days," observed Yuri Knutov. India and a number of Southeast Asian nations that have not built up strategic reserves would face the greatest difficulties in this situation; there, many experts believe, serious fuel shortages could arise." Izvestiya-Rus, 13Apr

@kvwviiju Beautiful 😍

had to log off for a few days because this actually made my TL go crazy but if i can wax poetic for a moment, i find it kind of beautiful that when i took the doomer girl pic i was 19 going through a 4 year bout of severe depression (10 years if im being real but the last 4 were quite serious) i don’t like to talk about tht kinda thing online because i feel I’d just be asking for trouble, but i got into a very dark place that i didn’t think I could get out of. now im 26, this ancient relic of a selfie has been uncovered, and im a bloomer who’s the happiest and healthiest she’s ever been in her entire life. just think there’s something quite lovely about that

Bunch of people have asked so to answer directly: these Hormuz offset numbers are entirely bunk. Absolutely fair to be optimistic about the war ending and Hormuz reopening, but it’s fundamentally flawed to say we’re offset the Hormuz supply loss and irresponsible to clam it’s not a serious ongoing crisis. Bad estimates (the reality below) 🇸🇦 7M: Saudi Reroute (That’s total East -West pipeline capacity, already had 2-2.5 on the line so remaining “swing” from Gulf to Red Sea is 4.5-5.0 MMbpd) 📈 4.25M: Pre-War Surplus (We did have a pre-war surplus, but it was closer to 2 MMbpd, and even that remains disputed—I was on the bearish side of the debate) 🇨🇳 2M: China Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) 🇦🇪 1.5M: UAE ADCOP reroute (Again, this is the pipe capacity—swing is more like 0.5-0.7) 🇮🇷 1M: Iran Jask Bypass (This is silly, Jask never demonstrated that capacity but more fundamentally Iran Hormuz flows actually remain higher than that at 1.5+ MMbpd) 🇮🇳 400k: India Safe-Passage (There is no steady cleared safe passage) In reality, we have ~13 MMbpd of upstream Gulf production offline, with no sustainable offset—SPRs, etc. are only a temporary help. Today’s Trump blockade would raise that to more than 15 MMbpd.

In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war. But when just inches away from "Islamabad MoU", we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade. Zero lessons earned Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.

@Ploidness @specialopsmag Wat a sook his mates ratted him out

@specialopsmag If Obi-Wan was an Australian SAS, the government would be going after him for war crimes over this.

Christian Craighead. British Special Air Service (SAS). The man known as Obi-Wan Nairobi, his actions on January 15, 2019 became legend. Christian was in Kenya training local forces when five al-Shabaab terrorists launched a coordinated attack using explosives, arson, and mass shooting. Off duty and out shopping, Craighead kitted up from the back of his car, raced to the scene, organized Kenyan police and military units, and then went in alone. He repeatedly entered the building, engaging terrorists and pulling out hostages floor by floor. By the end he was credited with helping save over 700 civilian lives. He was awarded the Conspicuous Gallantry Cross, the second highest military decoration in the United Kingdom. Then the same government that decorated him tried to stop him from ever telling the story.

Guess who made it through two years of genocide and tomorrow sits her last final exam in 4th year med school in Gaza.

They're right abt the azn guys liking only azn girls though. I went to a super azn high school and college and trying to date the azn twinks felt like pulling nails -_- They mostly want to date super mid super boring super blasé azn chicks. idek how I managed to pull off three hot azn husbands (two divorced now, I dont have a harem ok!) And oh my god the moment you actually get a bit notorious for dating mostly azn men as a white girl, the boring azn chicks GET SO MAD. I had whole forum threads dedicated to what a bad person I was. like no, I'm just being smart, I want my daughters to have naturally hairless legs, naturally no body odor, and naturally small noses and chinbones. Oh and good skin that doesnt raisin. Of course I'd interbreed white & azn a bunch it makes the highest-tier babies?? duh also azn twinks best twinks. stay so young and pretty :3

@lylegoldstein @RnaudBertrand I admire your logic and desire for peace But US/DC desire for democracy in tw is a cover for keeping it separate from mainland for geopolitics right DC would not support peaceful unification despite saying so

Really important events today in Beijing, as KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met with China's senior leadership, including both Wang Huning and also Cai Qi. Despite what Washington's myriad hawks are saying, this is not a major setback for the U.S. position in Asia. To the contrary, this is profoundly good news for U.S. national security. Americans are more safe if there is peace across the Taiwan Strait and American service members are in considerably less danger. Let's all hope these important steps represent the beginning of the end of the Chinese Civil War (finally). U.S. leaders might even come to realize that Ms. Cheng is doing them a favor in seeking reconciliation. I was at an event yesterday at Brown with a senior U.S. Senator who described Taiwan as a country no less than 3X -- ugh. DC leaders really need to get educated. Meanwhile, Cheng is actually deserving of the Nobel Peace Price -- much more than Ms. Machado of Venezuela fame. Remember the prize is for those making peace not for those promoting democracy -- an important distinction.

Wow Trump does stuff Israel doesn't like, and a deluge of Epstein stuff comes out within days. Surely a coincidence since Israeli intel running a pedo ring that ensnared the US political establishment for decades is a little too much for most people to contemplate.

@mercoglianos @EvansRyan202 @marcthiessen No one's really follows rules any.ore, have you not noticed?

1. Neither is Iran a signatory, but UNCLOS is the recognized law of the sea and based on past agreements. 2. No. No one has the right to levy a toll through an international strait. This is not a canal. 3. Territorial waters does not exclude international passage for nations like Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the UAE. Plus, the Iranians have allegedly mined Omani waters, where the traffic seperation scheme is located.

1. The U.S. is not a party to the Law of the Sea treaty 2. Any U.S. toll or tariff would be an “escort fee” paid to reimburse cost of U.S. military protection, which is perfectly legitimate 3. There are no international waters in the Strait. The strait is 21 miles wide. Territorial waters are 12 miles from the coasts.