@des_mansfield @mr_james_c People annoyed at the RP measure seem to be confusing the concept / threshold with simply being in the bottom 40 percentiles of the income distribution.
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Zack Grant
225 posts
Zack Grant
@ZackG_Politics
Postdoctoral Researcher at the Nuffield Politics Research Centre (University of Oxford). I research public opinion and party competition in Europe.
Oxford (UK) Katılım Temmuz 2021
659 Takip Edilen339 Takipçiler
@mr_james_c It’s not mathematically impossible. It may be economically or socially undesirable but it’s perfectly possible.
See the following distribution:
£30k £30k £36k £49k £235k
No relative poverty (60% of median)
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Relative Poverty measures are a scam peddled by ideologues.
It's an example of the unseriousness of our institutions that relative poverty measures have been allowed to be accepted to mean "poverty".
Tom Harwood@tomhfh
When we talk about 'child poverty' what we are referring to is a child living in a family earning less than 60% of the current national median income. This is a relative measure. It means that 'child poverty' can never be abolished. Moreover it means that if one cohort becomes richer relative to another, we define greater poverty in the latter cohort, even if it is no worse off on an absolute basis. For example, as pensioner incomes rose relative to families with children, child poverty has risen. Many more pensioners now take home lots more money thanks to the triple lock. Pensioner poverty has fallen markedly. At the same time child benefit has risen less quickly, ergo more children are defined as living in poverty, even if on an absolute basis they are not.
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Zack Grant retweetledi
NEW -
Family Matters: How Concerns about the Financial Wellbeing of Young Relatives Shape the Political Preferences of Older Adults - cup.org/3EBXUDO
- @ZackG_Politics, @ProfJaneGreen & Geoffrey Evans (all @NuffieldCollege)
#OpenAccess
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@LukeTryl I know small samples and margins of error and all that, but surprised not to see an education gradient for the Greens!
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Striking illustration from Ed of the importance of the graduate/non graduate divide in shaping British politics now .
In our current voting intention combined Conservative/Reform vote among non-graduates is 55% among graduates it is over 20 points lower at 34%.
Ed Hodgson@edhodgsoned
And in our current voting intention the difference is stark - Reform is leading among Britons with no degree, but in fourth place for those with a degree
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Zack Grant retweetledi
📢Special issue and workshop on "The Politics of AI: Citizen Perceptions, Preferences, and Priorities" 📢
We aim to bring together cutting-edge research on the political ramifications of AI for a workshop in Oxford and a special issue in a leading political science journal.(1/2)
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Zack Grant retweetledi
I've started a substack 😨
The first is segmentation analysis using @BESResearch with economic, social, populism & efficacy scales on 2024 data
Shows
- Valence 💯
- Conservatives are screwed
- Reform's high ceiling
- Labour's precarity
- Anti-populist campaigns are rubbish
👇
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Great work by James on this. Useful rebuke to people who believe (hope?) that cultural issues don't matter. Not all politics is marginal tax rates and wheely bins.
James Breckwoldt@jamesbreckwoldt
TLDR Culture wars not all-encompassing or irrelevant – they are additional issue group voters care about. BUT importance of culture war was asymmetric. Liberal-left voters don't prioritize it... But everyone else did (to varying extent & depend on specific issue) This works 👇
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just catching up on the “americans don’t understand Robbie Williams” discourse and i have to know: is there an American equivalent. A household name, utterly woven into your pop culture history who we absolutely can’t fathom and don’t care to
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Zack Grant retweetledi
The macroeconomy is strong--high growth, low unemployment, falling inflation--the best of any advanced economy.
But there was a reluctance to present/understand how families were still not out of the deep inflation hole. And too much masked by cherrypicking/misleading stats.
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Zack Grant retweetledi
I don't study politics, but I do study culture, and here are some of the signs that a cultural shift has been brewing for years in America that most of the professional political analysts just completely missed.
Some of these may seem absurd, but hear me out. 🧵
We'll start with this one:
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@LukeTryl Also speaks to an unhelpful trend of immediately importing US slogans and talking points wholesale to Britain without regard for context (see also 'Defund the Police' and 'Drain the Swamp').
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@robfordmancs Danish Social Democrats? Tough borders approach also probably didn't hurt.
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Is there any incumbent, anywhere in the world, who hasn’t suffered a major voter repudiation if standing for election since the post-COVID inflation surge?
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@jamesbreckwoldt Will be interesting to see the Dearborn/WC count!
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@ZackG_Politics Her vote might not even be the difference!
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Will be interesting to see who Dem elites coalesce their blame around (spoiler: they won't blame themselves)
My guess it will be in order: Biden, all men generally, Musk, "misinformation", Black/Latino men specifically, Gaza, media "sane-washing", podcasters...
Any more?
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Zack Grant retweetledi
Zack Grant retweetledi
Reflections from @BESResearch team on 60th Year Anniversary of the BES youtu.be/aRzpVQjrfVk?si… @ProfJaneGreen @jon_mellon @caprosser @PoliSciJack @OfficialUoM @NuffieldCollege @NuffieldLibrary @UniofOxford @Politics_Oxford @oxsocsci @NPRCOxford
YouTube
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In the paper, we also discuss the trade-offs involved in including a DK option in survey questions and when researchers may want to do so. The paper is open access, so please have a look! 11/11
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Running a survey? Wondering if you should include a “don’t know” response option in your policy preference questions? In our new @PSRMJournal paper, @CBWlezien and me examine the consequences of the DK option for (various) estimates of public opinion #article" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">cambridge.org/core/journals/… 1/n
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Are there any good reads on how #Manchester has been able to develop so quickly this past decade vs. London and other southern cities? Just there for a conf. and construction is everywhere. Big contrast to other places. #yimby Google Maps before/after shots really ram this home:
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Zack Grant retweetledi
Can you think of examples of films or TV shows from the last 5-10 years that wouldn't get made today because norms have shifted?
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@MarkDee85 @mrianleslie Sure, it goes back through to Animal House and beyond; however, I can't think of any contemporary equivalent. The most obvious would seem to be
Sex Education, but that is notably co-ed and v. 'message-driven' /normative, rather than descriptive of how teenage boys actually are.
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@ZackG_Politics @mrianleslie I don’t think so. The jokes might look a little different but teenage boys being teenage boys is a premise that will keep getting made. (See Kevin and Perry, Superbad, American Pie, and so on)
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