MrOuzbek

@realroseceline Great insight, as always

What can $NFLX look like in 10 years? 500 to 700 million subscribers. Today, $NFLX has around 300 million paid subs. Reaching 500-700 million over the next decade is not guaranteed, but I think it is reasonable given international broadband growth, the password sharing crackdown, cheaper ad supported plans, and continued expansion in emerging markets. Advertising becomes a massive business. It could eventually generate tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue if management continues improving its targeting and measurement. If ARPU begins approaching what other major digital platforms earn, ads could become $NFLX highest margin business. Live programming expands significantly. I do not necessarily mean buying sports rights at any cost, but I expect more live events, comedy, reality competitions, awards shows, etc. Live content gives people a reason to open the app at a specific time, keeps subscribers engaged, and helps reduce churn. The ecosystem becomes much larger. I expect $NFLX to continue expanding into games, consumer products, experiences, licensing, interactive entertainment, and other businesses that may not even exist today. Not all of these opportunities will become enormous individually, but together they could diversify revenue and make the entire platform more valuable. Margins continue expanding because streaming has fantastic operating leverage. If revenue continues compounding while content spending grows more slowly, operating margins will grow well above current levels. Once the content platform is built, every additional dollar of revenue becomes increasingly profitable. Huge free cash flow is what excites me most. If $NFLX can eventually reach something like $80-$120 billion in revenue, operating margins above 40%, and moderate capital requirements, it could be producing tens of billions of dollars in free cash flow. At that point, management would have enormous flexibility to return capital to shareholders. I have said for many years that $NFLX will eventually become a buyback beast, which is already playing out. What makes this even more impressive is that $NFLX is positioned to do it with a strong balance sheet and without needing to pile on significant debt or dilution. That means a much larger portion of future free cash flow can go directly toward repurchasing shares instead of being consumed by interest payments. If the business keeps growing while the share count keeps shrinking, returns to long term shareholders could be significantly amplified. Perhaps much more so than what seems plausible today. Obviously, there are risks. Content quality could deteriorate, competition could intensify enough to drive content costs materially higher, advertising could underperform expectations, and subscriber growth could slow before monetization fully improves. None of this is guaranteed, and execution will matter enormously. Overall, I still think $NFLX has one of the clearest long term compounding stories in large cap tech. The question is not whether it survives because it almost certainly will. The question is how effectively it converts its global scale, brand, and content library into higher revenue per user and much larger free cash flow over the next decade. If management executes well, the business in 2036 could be meaningfully larger and substantially more profitable than it is today. 🌹

@LooneyStocks C'est la locomotive du secteur. Est ce qu'elle va pump le tout ou entrainer tout le monde vers le bas.. On va bien voir 😅

🛰️ SpaceX publiera ses résultats le 4 août. Je vais les suivre, étant exposé au secteur Space, je pense que c’est intéressant, bien qu’elle ne soit pas dans ma watchlist 😁

@EnergyMarketsFR Hâte de pouvoir lire votre premier thread

Les deux sujets seront traités mais nous vous laissons le choix de l'ordre de publication

premier sondage 1-Pourquoi l’Europe peine-t-elle autant à maintenir sa compétitivité industrielle face aux prix de l’énergie ? 2-Baseload vs Peak, France vs Allemagne : les bases essentielles pour comprendre les spreads et la formation des prix votes en dessous 🔽

@realroseceline @GabGrowth What do you think about the decrease of net margin and take rate ? They capture more and more TPV, and so the FCF rise up, so that's great, but I would like to have your opinion on this please.

@GabGrowth I agree with you, currently holding over 100k shares 🌹

$DLO is still one of the most asymmetric risk to reward stocks in the market, in my view. I also believe the consensus estimates for 2027 and 2028 in particular are on the low end. I’m projecting $1.19 and $1.68 for 2027/2028 EPS respectively.

If you are interested in e-commerce, food delivery, quick commerce within Southeast Asia, specifically how it relates to $SE $GRAB and TikTok Shop, I really highly recommend reading this piece from @the_zack_zhu and I. We made it freely available to all to read: gabgrowth.com/p/quick-commer…

In China's retail sector, the problem is not a lack of goods. It is an oversupply of mediocre goods and a shortage of truly high-quality ones. $COST $WMT - If you travel across China for a bit longer, one thing becomes obvious: the product mix looks very homogeneous from store to store and city to city. Quality supply feels noticeably scarce. This backdrop is why Walmart's Sam's Club has been able to become the biggest supermarket in China, even though it operates in only 67 stores around 30 cities. When I travel there, the No. 2 topic locals ask me about is food safety in Taiwan. Many people admire the quality of Taiwanese goods and look down on their own food system. They joke that Chinese food tastes good because of the “tech” (科技狠活) put into it. There is still a lack of regulation and enforcement in China's food sector. This is where Sam's Club comes into the picture. In China, Sam's Club has become a brand strongly associated with high-quality products, especially in food. Middle-class consumers believe they can trust Sam's Club's selection. - Unlike Costco $COST in Taiwan or in many other countries, where people mainly shop for low prices, Sam's Club in China is not primarily a price story. Its pricing is not necessarily competitive, and it clearly makes a lot of money from product sales. People in China's Sam's Club are paying for unique supply. Another interesting point is that Sam's Club China has a wider range of product category and a lower proportion of everyday essentials compared with Costco in other countries. The product-hunt element is stronger. Sam's Club in China feels less like a place for cheap, big-brand essentials and more like a machine that can constantly churn out unique, high-quality products. Another pillar of Sam's Club's success is how well it has integrated itself into China's e-commerce environment. Currently around half of it sales are from online! That is also a very interesting story, and there are many things worth discussing about retail in China. Stay tuned! - Note: The No. 1 question people ask me is usually political. I also personally think the quality of goods in Taiwan is still underdeveloped compared with other developed markets, such as Japan, and that Taiwan lacks many different retail business models. I think this is one of the main reasons Costco is so successful in Taiwan. Taiwan has 4 of Costco's top 10 stores. Note2: I know a lot of people shop in Costco for quality, but I think overall pricing is the most important factor. But in China’s Sam’s Club, quality is more important than pricing. Note3: I also know Sam’s Club in America wasn’t known for it’s quality, so is ALDI, but in China, they are already consider as the ones with very good quality.

@GabGrowth @the_zack_zhu You guys are the top 0,001% of X. Every time I read your analyses, I learn something new. Thank you very much for your excellent content. Always a pleasure to see a long thread with your name in my feed. 🙇‍♂️

@the_zack_zhu Cool! I’m still looking through interviews, should come across it soon!

$APP Adam Foroughi gets a lot of praise and the majority of attention when people discuss AppLovin, and he deserves it. But someone that I think is overlooked, is Giovanni Ge, their newly appointed CTO. Giovanni joined the company in Nov 2022, having worked as a ML engineer at $META, and at $UBER and $BLK previously. He studied at the University of Science and Technology of China before doing his PhD in Condensed Matter and Materials Physics at SISSA in Italy. Upon joining, he led the Axon 2 model development with Basil Shikin (previous CTO). In an interview with David Senra, Adam is explicit that Giovanni led it, built the team, and runs it. He described him as fresh blood with an insanely high IQ, one of the smartest people he’s ever met, and in his words, “much smarter than I am”. That is high praise. What was more interesting, was Adam revealing what Giovanni did for the culture of the company. Adam mentioned that Giovanni came in daily grilling him with uncomfortable questions like why does this person exist, why this team, why these processes, why is this VP above someone better. Adam says he faced a choice, either address those questions or lose a talent like Giovanni. That interrogation directly triggered the ~40% headcount reduction in 2023-24 (while revenue nearly doubled) and his shift to treating culture as something to re-derive continuously rather than preserve. Adam called Giovanni an A+ player with zero tolerance for non-A players, quick to cut anyone not at the required level, willing to fire on sight. He frames this impatience as the mechanism that lets him trust the org: put A+ leaders in key roles and they self-police quality below them. Since joining, Giovanni has had a rapid rise to the top. He was a part of the engineering and technical staff when joining but quickly rose to be the company’s Chief Product and Engineering Officer from November 2025 through July 2026 and has just taken over from Basil Shikin as CTO. Adam mentioned that this was simply a case of natural succession. Just as Shikin displaced co-founder John Krystynak as CTO in 2016 because the person underneath had become better, Shikin is now shifting roles and the person who built the new technology, Giovanni, has taken the CTO role. Adam’s stated principle is that the best person must hold the role at any moment, or that person will leave and start a new company. I think this speaks a lot to the competence of Giovanni, and also the humility and clear-mindedness of Adam. The combination of Adam and Giovanni, is not a team I would want to bet against. P.S. I am working on an $APP deep dive and will be aiming to hit publish in the coming week. Find it in the usual place!

@LooneyStocks Avec une autorisation de rachat d'action de 20Mds de $, ça va permettre à la boite d'allouer un peu de capital 🤓

Qui est sur $NFLX et quelle est vortre lecture des resultats au Q2 ? Et vous lisez un print comment ? le cours ou les chiffres ? Si vous avez trouvé ca interessant, un petit like m'aiderait beaucoup pour la visiblité :) Prochaine ligne dont j'attend les earnings, et que j'ai en portefeuille, c'est $GOOG. RDV le 22/07/2026 😁

💫 Recap earnings $NFLX : Un trimestre qui bat la guidance sur la marge ET le bénéfice… et l'action se prend un gilfe hors market. Comment c'est possible ? Et pourquoi ça me fait ni chaud ni froid ? C'est très simple 👇

@fuckthedip Dure journée

pour l'instant cool 🖤🤞

@David_SLR_43 630 Milliards de RPO pour Microsoft et -2%

A quelques heures de l'open: $SPY +0.1% $GOOGL +6% $META -9% $MSFT -2% $AMZN +2%

@fuckthedip Avec la sortie de leur nouveau film Avengers cette année, y'a un truc à tenter.

Elle marche bien cette MM200 mensuelle sur Disney

@mathlonning What happened today ?

This is the fourth time this year alone algos do something completely retarded regarding $TMDX and I have an opportunity to make a profit. Every-time it appears too good to be true, but ends up playing exactly like it should. Thanks algos.

@fuckthedip Alors peut être, la M50... 🤡

Domino's Pizza envoie Mc Donald's sur la M30 mensuelle

@profpiscou @capitify Comme quoi, pas si deg' que ça.. 😂

@capitify Un peu deg pour $POET mais je vais attendre une respiration je pense

Voici ma Watchlist 2026 J’ai sélectionné ces valeurs : $LUNR, $FLY, $NVTS, $RDW, $SLNH et $POET. Elles s’inscrivent toutes dans le super cycle massif de l’espace (lancement, infrastructure lunaire, solutions spatiales) et de l’IA (semi-conducteurs de puissance, photonique, data centers haute performance et énergie renouvelable). Ce sont des entreprises complémentaires par rapport à ce que j’ai déjà dans mon portefeuille. Elles renforcent l’exposition sur les vrais moteurs de création de valeur des prochaines années. Je ne sais pas encore quelle action je vais intégrer en premier. Tout dépendra du marché et des opportunités de pondération. J’ai déjà une idée précise en tête Si vous avez des articles ou des infos concernant ces dossier, n’hésitez pas à m’en faire part

@IguanoDeLaBolsa @djambouille76 @LP_Actionnaire Vos revues sur IH puis Moning ont été un plaisir à lire pour moi pendant un long moment. Merci pour ce que vous avez pu apporter et à votre contribution actuelle 🙇‍♂️

@djambouille76 @LP_Actionnaire Moi j'ai prévu de racheter la boîte, je renforce tous les jours 👍

Il y a presque 10 ans j'avais un 2ème boulot 2-3 nuits par semaine pour pouvoir commencer à placer un peu de thune ... À 25 balais j'avais la nyak pour enchaîner ce genre de rythme 💪 Mais surtout je m'étais vite rendu compte qu'en étant quasiment à l'€ près chaque mois ce serait compliqué d'avancer ... surtout quand on ne veut pas dépendre d'un état toujours plus déficitaire Donc oui aujourd'hui c'est plaisant de voir le chemin parcouru 😊 Pas encore de quoi me mettre au vert, mais la base est là, je n'ai pas encore 40 ans, et surtout c'est une progression exponentielle avec le temps 🚀 Donc les amis, peu importe la stratégie qui vous convient le +, le principal c'est d'être à l'aise, et surtout de ne pas lâcher sur la durée ⏳️ Et merci à tout ceux qui ont fait le plein et pris l'autoroute 😁

There is also a limit that most people ignore. Every business eventually runs out of high return opportunities, ie $BRK. At the beginning, it can deploy a lot of capital at great returns. Over time, that gets harder due to the law of large numbers. The question is not just whether ROIC is high today. It’s how long it can stay high as the business scales in the future. That’s where the real money is made. This also connects directly to dilution, which most people completely misunderstand (see my previous post on dilution). A company can grow earnings and still make you poorer. If it issues shares and reinvests at low returns, your ownership shrinks and the capital is wasted. Now you’re getting hit twice because you own less and what you own earns less. In my humble opinion this is one of the biggest traps in investing. ROIC is not random, it comes from something within the business. High returns usually mean the company has an advantage like pricing power, switching costs, network effects, brand, whatever. Low returns usually mean competition is taking that value away. As companies scale, this becomes harder to maintain. The best businesses hold high returns for a long time or see a slow decline. Average businesses see returns fall quickly as they chase growth. This is the big question intelligent investors should ask themselves about businesses like the so called “neo clouds” which are very popular today. Every dollar a company generates has a choice. Reinvest it, acquire something, buy back stock, or return it. ROIC is what that tells you if those decisions are actually good and ultimately determined the quality of management. This is why two companies with identical growth can lead to completely different outcomes. One is compounding at high returns, the other is just recycling capital at lower returns. The surface looks the same, but the outcome is not, in fact it’s hugely different, planets apart. If you learn one thing for me, remember this: the market doesn’t reward growth, it rewards returns on capital. Growth gets a huge amount of attention but ROIC decides your outcome. Only an ignorant fool looks at growth without immediately considering the ROIC to produce that growth. Most investors chase what is visible, but best investors focus on what actually drives value. Bad and average businesses grow, but great businesses compound and ROIC is the difference, the so called “secret sauce”. How often do you see posts on X saying look at the growth, and how often do you see anyone saying look at the ROIC? It’s like bragging about how fast a car is going without ever popping the hood to see what kind of engine is actually inside. So before you invest, don’t just ask how fast the company is growing. Ask what its ROIC actually is, how is it calculated, whether it is improving or declining, and most importantly what it’s going to look like in the future many years out. Ask what the incremental returns look like and how much capital can still be deployed at those levels. 🌹

@j_wang_feel ASTS réagit surtout au fait que le lancement de BB7 soit décalé et et le fait que Amazon rachète un ' concurrent ' dans le domaine.

@StantsTrades Why not just buy them ?

Amzn trying to copy $ASTS thoughts?

@FrugalisteFutee 50% cash, des minis achats, mais ce n'est pas encore l'heure de déployer.

0,9% de cash en réserve.

@fuckthedip Palo Alto commence à faire de l'oeil

Pensais pas que cela aurait été aussi rapide