4lex

Ken Griffin says short-term alpha from calling the quarter with alt data is dying, and the next era of stock-picking belongs to those with a long-term horizon. "I think there'll be more focus and emphasis on those who have really good vision about what companies are actually creating transformative products that will change society. The market will reward that far more intensely in the future than will a company beat this quarter's earnings or not. I think the question of will a company beat this quarter's earnings has gotten far more difficult over the last 10 years because, for example, the rise of alternative data. I have access to the credit cards of millions of Americans. What are they spending money on? What's that mean for Starbucks revenues this quarter? What's it mean for McDonald's this quarter? This is a decade-old transformation, but the here and now is just becoming far more transparent, far more readily understood and triaged by the combination of really bright people and really good AI technology. Where this will leave us is those who are able to see what is unfolding over years to come will be in a very valued position on a relative basis."

I’ve known Phoebe Gates online since she was a teen, so I might be biased but nothing in the Bloomberg reporting shows she personally engaged in wrongdoing. Phia’s browser extension opening background tabs and inserting affiliate codes comes from technical implementation choices made by engineers, not from Phoebe herself. She isn’t a software developer, she didn’t write the extension, and there is no evidence she directed anyone to override other affiliates or manipulate commissions. What happened is exactly the kind of over‑aggressive optimization that crops up in early‑stage tech products, especially in the messy world of affiliate tracking where scripts, libraries, and automated logic can behave in ways founders never intended. The reporting makes clear that independent researchers discovered the issue, Capital One Shopping flagged similar behavior, and Phia acknowledged the violation and fixed it. That sequence is consistent with a technical mistake, not a deliberate scheme. If Phoebe had intended to deceive, the company wouldn’t have immediately admitted the problem and patched the code. It’s far more plausible that she learned about the issue at the same moment the public did, then ensured her team corrected it. Her broader behavior reinforces this interpretation. She runs Phia like a normal startup founder—negotiating frugally with influencers, declining inflated rates, and trying to build a sustainable business rather than exploiting systems. Nothing about her conduct suggests someone orchestrating a covert affiliate‑fraud operation. The allegation is about code, not character, and the code was fixed as soon as the problem surfaced. The fairest conclusion is that Phoebe Gates did nothing wrong. A technical misconfiguration occurred, it was corrected, and there is no evidence she knew about it, intended it, or benefited from it in any deliberate way. If you want, I can also expand this into a more forceful version or reshape it into a legal‑style defense.

I published a note today that I've been thinking about for months.. About how the US stock market has arguably become too big and too imp to fail.. It's basically America's retirement fund now and poss even the savior of social security which is expected to run out of money in less than 10yrs -Curr 55% of ppl own stocks, by far most in world. And w/ Trump Accounts bringing in 28 million add'l americans into stock ownership the vast majority of ppl (incl Top 1% (who own HALF of stock mkt), middle class and lower income) will have financial interest in the health of stock mkt and they're all voters = the political pressure to keep stocks out of a prolonged bear market is going to be very powerful. -As such I think there's good chance the Fed will buy equity ETFs in the next major downturn to support market and it will be common practice going fwd. China and Japan already do this. They may even target certain sectors or Capex cos with the purchases. -This is a massive variable that I feel like is a blind spot among the experts out there and why the bears get run over time and time again altho I think investors are onto it as evidenced by the persistent flows into ETFs during pullbacks as well as a survey of 1000 ppl showing 3/4 of them are confident the Fed will bail out markets in next crisis. -This is just one byproduct of the 'Nothing Stops This Train' monetary supply explosion and debt extravaganza sweeping the world but esp in US which at this point feels irreversable.. Thoughts? lol

Breaking: Trump says ceasefire with Iran is officially “over” 🚨 Trump says Iran asked to continue “talks” and has agreed to 🚨

mossad is on modafinil. another modafinil W, this time coming straight from the capital. can't make this shit up. perhaps modafinil is the secret they've been keeping from us all along?