Luke Cashmore

This was the most profound experience of my life. I am stunned beyond comprehension. This molecule is without peer. The 27mg dose opened up what felt like pure consciousness and intelligence. A majestic reveal of existence itself. In all its incomprehensible glory and majesty. It is impossible to explain with words. Whatever you imagine, multiply it by 1,000 and then add infinite width and depth and dimensions. But entrance was not granted without prerequisite. Existence demanded that I submit. That I say yes; without attachment and without condition. Yes to existence; yes to the dissolution of self; yes to release control; yes, to all. My ego registered the ask and panicked. It wanted control. It was desperate for control. It pleaded to escape from the torrent of light and essence that threatened to rip my sanity into chards. The urge to eject was overwhelming. Terror thundered throughout my mind and body. It took everything within me to release. I overcame and was treated with bliss that defies imagination. A euphoria colored with perfect harmony of all things. An orchestra of essence washed over me and swept me up in dance. It was home. The highest aspiration of intelligent life. For some reason, stored and tucked away as the ultimate prize. A single concept emerged in omnipresence: we cannot grok the preciousness of our existence. Yet it is everything we’ve ever wanted and more. The state we long for without knowing it exists. This caused me great pain and heartache. A swell of loyalty and devotion emerged inside me, pledging allegiance to existence. To become a warrior and caretaker of life on earth. To protect at any cost the candle of consciousness that has miraculously emerged in this part of the galaxy. What awaits will wipe all your tears, soothe all your sorrows, and infinitely exceed your wants.

A predictable anti-EV talking points is: “Sure, but wait until you need a new battery.” You don’t - they tend to outlast the car. But if you did, an avg 64 kWh battery in 2030, after 8 yrs warranty, would cost $5,449. That’s 1 yr of diesel for a Ford Ranger at current rates.

This has happened before. There’s a reason the EV transition feels familiar. Because we’ve seen this exact story play out before. 📸 Photography Back in the day, Kodak dominated the entire industry. They didn’t just lead it, they owned it. And here’s the crazy part… They actually invented the first digital camera in 1975. They saw the future coming. They had the patents. They had the technology. They had the head start. And what did they do? They hesitated. They believed digital wouldn’t replace film. They protected their existing business. They underestimated how quickly things would change. We all know how that ended. Film didn’t slowly decline. It collapsed. Now look at the car industry For years, the narrative has been: “EVs won’t take over.” “The infrastructure isn’t ready.” “They’re not practical.” “They’ll never replace petrol and diesel.” Sound familiar? Because it’s the exact same arguments used against digital photography. But here’s what matters This isn’t about opinions. It’s about behaviour. 👉 Over 90% of EV drivers stick with electric once they switch. 👉 Satisfaction rates are among the highest in the automotive world. 👉 Running costs are lower. 👉 Ownership is simpler for most. The shift isn’t being forced. It’s being chosen. Kodak didn’t fail because the technology didn’t exist. They failed because they didn’t believe it would win. The same mistake is being made again right now. It isn’t a question of if… It’s a question of when. And just like film cameras… One day people will look back and wonder why there was ever a debate at all.

Some random thoughts on the hard rock pegmatites as I sip my morning coffee. Nobody seems to be talking about the price of Tantalum which has just reached its highest price in 20 years. A lot of hard rock lithium companies produce Tantalum as a by-product. It’s a relatively rare metal that occurs in small quantities in pegmatites. Most deposits have an average grade of around ~130ppm Ta. It’s quite easy to concentrate given just how heavy it is compared to spodumene and the typical pegmatite associated deleterious elements. Tantalite a specific gravity of ~8 whereas spodumene comes in at ~3.1. However, its worth noting, like all metals and minerals, some deposits will have higher recovery rates and better metallurgy than others. As you can see on the diagram below, given just how heavy it is, and also that it generally contains iron, it can be removed before the flotation step with gravity and magnetic separation. The recoveries are generally quite low (I note LTR’s came in at 38% in their DFS - not sure what they are in operation). Whilst it’s low, it’s not bad for a by-product and such a simple and relatively low cost process (magnetic and gravity separation after SAG). I’d imagine it would be relatively straight forward to increase the recovery rates. For example the grind size is optimised to suit the spodumene as it’s the main game. If the tantalum price increases enough I’m wondering if there’s a sweet spot where you’d ideally tweak the grind to suit the tantalum recoveries a bit. Although I’m not sure what tantalum price you’d need to warrant that. Companies generally list it as a credit against the operating costs. In LTR’s DFS for example, they were estimating a US$48 credit per tonne thanks to tantalum concentrate sales. Which equates to a tantalum price somewhere around the ~US$84/lb CIF China mark. The current price of >30% Ta2O5 concentrate is $US260/lb (this is per contained Ta2O5). So to run through an example, last half yearly, LTR produced around 591dmt of Tantalum concentrate, which equates to 1,302,930 pounds. However, this would come out as a 12% graded product as stated in their DFS and is further upgraded offsite for a 4% loss. So total contained Ta2O5 would be 1,302,930 * 12% * (0.96) = 150,098 lbs of Ta2O5 per half year. So if you crunch the math, 150,098 x ~$US230(rough realised price) x 1.43(US to AUD) x 2 = ~$A98.7 million annually. It starts to become quite a significant credit, especially if you take into account the simplicity of concentrating it. I'm not sure of the offsite concentrating costs and its not listed anywhere. I'd imagine its still largely magnetic and gravity based so shouldn't be overly high relatively speaking compared to other processes. If the price of Tantalum continues to increase, you would think companies would start to implement/tweak processing to increase recoveries given how low they are. 38% is quite low if you ask me (using LTR as an example) and I'm sure there would be ways to increase this without hurting the spodumene output. Just a benefit hard rock mining has over brines! Maybe some of the smaller lithium players could look to implement a small scale WHIMS, etc. and start concentrating tantalum to raise early stage cash? If the price of spodumene holds above US$2000, and you throw in a juicy tantalum credit, you’re going to see some pretty decent quarters for lithium producers I'd say! Thanks for reading!

Some random thoughts on the hard rock pegmatites as I sip my morning coffee. Nobody seems to be talking about the price of Tantalum which has just reached its highest price in 20 years. A lot of hard rock lithium companies produce Tantalum as a by-product. It’s a relatively rare metal that occurs in small quantities in pegmatites. Most deposits have an average grade of around ~130ppm Ta. It’s quite easy to concentrate given just how heavy it is compared to spodumene and the typical pegmatite associated deleterious elements. Tantalite a specific gravity of ~8 whereas spodumene comes in at ~3.1. However, its worth noting, like all metals and minerals, some deposits will have higher recovery rates and better metallurgy than others. As you can see on the diagram below, given just how heavy it is, and also that it generally contains iron, it can be removed before the flotation step with gravity and magnetic separation. The recoveries are generally quite low (I note LTR’s came in at 38% in their DFS - not sure what they are in operation). Whilst it’s low, it’s not bad for a by-product and such a simple and relatively low cost process (magnetic and gravity separation after SAG). I’d imagine it would be relatively straight forward to increase the recovery rates. For example the grind size is optimised to suit the spodumene as it’s the main game. If the tantalum price increases enough I’m wondering if there’s a sweet spot where you’d ideally tweak the grind to suit the tantalum recoveries a bit. Although I’m not sure what tantalum price you’d need to warrant that. Companies generally list it as a credit against the operating costs. In LTR’s DFS for example, they were estimating a US$48 credit per tonne thanks to tantalum concentrate sales. Which equates to a tantalum price somewhere around the ~US$84/lb CIF China mark. The current price of >30% Ta2O5 concentrate is $US260/lb (this is per contained Ta2O5). So to run through an example, last half yearly, LTR produced around 591dmt of Tantalum concentrate, which equates to 1,302,930 pounds. However, this would come out as a 12% graded product as stated in their DFS and is further upgraded offsite for a 4% loss. So total contained Ta2O5 would be 1,302,930 * 12% * (0.96) = 150,098 lbs of Ta2O5 per half year. So if you crunch the math, 150,098 x ~$US230(rough realised price) x 1.43(US to AUD) x 2 = ~$A98.7 million annually. It starts to become quite a significant credit, especially if you take into account the simplicity of concentrating it. I'm not sure of the offsite concentrating costs and its not listed anywhere. I'd imagine its still largely magnetic and gravity based so shouldn't be overly high relatively speaking compared to other processes. If the price of Tantalum continues to increase, you would think companies would start to implement/tweak processing to increase recoveries given how low they are. 38% is quite low if you ask me (using LTR as an example) and I'm sure there would be ways to increase this without hurting the spodumene output. Just a benefit hard rock mining has over brines! Maybe some of the smaller lithium players could look to implement a small scale WHIMS, etc. and start concentrating tantalum to raise early stage cash? If the price of spodumene holds above US$2000, and you throw in a juicy tantalum credit, you’re going to see some pretty decent quarters for lithium producers I'd say! Thanks for reading!