
Happy new ATH
Jay
3.4K posts


Happy new ATH







SPX forward returns and MAE when: - 4-week return 8% or higher - VIX down 10 handles or more from its 8-week high - VIX/VIX3M back below 1 (also interesting to note how a few of these align with the liquidity impulse washout signal I shared on March 30th: Apr 2020, Nov 2020 and Apr 2025)



The seeds of the next bull cycle in crypto are becoming clearer. If I had to guess, here's the sequence of events: 1. AI sucks all the air out of the room for 6+ months 2. CAPEX fears become pronounced going into summer 3. CLARITY quietly passes, GENIUS gets implemented 4. AI fears lead to lower rates, while stables explode 5. Persistently lower rates from AI deflation lead to vol 6. Trading of crypto assets take off 7. Weak coins left for dead, fewer winners emerge 8. Enterprises onchain become enormous trend We are most likely ~9 months out from this becoming consensus.


BTC after first VIX close above 29 in 3 months + plotted against 365d rolling VWAP:



My full market analysis is live. The main focus has been on my 2026 liquidity projection. The TLDR; Liquidity likely bottomed in February and the data is still tracking closer to my base case than the bear case as I previously posted. The biggest confirmation this week within the data is Treasury bill expansion. Bills outstanding have expanded by around $272B over the last 3 months, just above the historical top quartile threshold. Historically, that has been much better for $BTC over the next 3 to 6 months than periods where bills were contracting. GLI is rising. SLR is starting to show signs of helping. $ETH is leading the rotation system and has outperformed the other majors since the rotation. The bearish macro takes are not enough. There are still risks, especially Transmission and credit liquidity, but the liquidity thesis I laid out remains intact. Full report is on the dashboard. rjalpha.app/en/letters



We agree. Thank you @SecScottBessent for saying it. It's time to pass the Clarity Act. Grateful for all the bipartisan work among Senators and staff over the past several months to make this a strong bill.