Phil Kessel

There is a v real question if #Lahaina will ever be able to fully come back from this. Client-side insurance adjuster friend on his way out there tonight explained the stark reality. 1 - Reconstruction costs in Maui will likely be 2x what they normally would due to surge cost / pricing. With CA wildfires it can get as bad 30%+ cost surge due to excess reconstruction demand and not enough supply (contractors, etc). It will easily double in Maui. 2 - Ins cos will already fight to not pay max amounts in settlements. This makes an average long-term property owner rebuilding not just challenging but near impossible as those policies won’t cover it all. Likely outcome: property sale for long term small parcel owners. Say you had a 1M policy. You finally get paid 750k after 1-2 years and rebuilding costs 2M due to surge. 3 - It could EASILY take 2-3 years to get something rebuilt. If you owned a small surf shop business. You cant wait 2 years to reopen business so you will find something else to do to make money (e.g. leave, etc). For those commercial building owners - say with 3 of these small businesses that had been in them for years. Your tenants will be gone / hard to find by the time you rebuild. 4 - Big developers will come in and see the opportunity to buy distressed properties at a discount. If local officials let that get too out of hand all leverage will go to giant developers who will start scooping parcels bit by bit. This is the most likely outcome. US govt support or funds will only do so much when it comes to the future rebuilding and recommercialization of this special place. In short, it will be challenging to thread the needle and bring back the quaint and lovely community of Lahaina. A more likely outcome is a super developed and commercialized version some years from now. My friend has said he will do all he can to help those who lost it all to get the most they can from ins cos to increase chances of rebuilding.