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Zabe
@aagha
Tweet about finance/investing, politics, tech, startups & science.
SF Bay Area, CA, USA Katılım Nisan 2008
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THOMAS MASSIE: “It’s ironic that we control the House, Senate, Supreme Court, & the White House -- and we're yelling 'election fraud'? We won all the damn elections.
What are we doing with that? We’re bankrupting the country. We’re starting new wars. We’re violating the Constitution. We’re not cracking down on the fraud. The problem is not the elections. We won the damn elections. The problem is that we’re wasting the opportunity voters gave us."
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Professor is murdered. Squatters take over his house.
"the squatters reported their own burglary to establish occupancy in the house."
California Kafkaesque dysfunction.
dailycal.org/news/city/crim…
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Seeing the despicably cruel, heartless and abusive way that many people in UK and US have responded to the deaths of conservative politicians, Ann Widdecombe and Lindsey Graham, reminds me that the least kind people on earth are ironically those on the #BeKind woke left.
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@Mayhem4Markets > That is not a pricing strategy. That is panic.
Stop. The. AI. Slop.
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MiniMax raised $619M in January at a whopping $6.5B valuation.
Today the CEO is working for free and the stock has lost 80% of its value from peak to trough.
Here is what happened. And what it tells you about the Chinese AI market right now.
The IPO was a spectacle. HK$165 a share. Stock doubled on day one. By March it hit HK$1,330. Market cap touched $39B. Founder Yan Junjie was worth $12.6B on paper.
Then the models stopped landing.
M3 launched in June. It was a benchmaxxed model with subpar uptake. That was the problem. In AI right now, benchmaxxing is death. DeepSeek V4 and Zhipu GLM-5.2 pulled the attention away with vastly superior models. MiniMax halved its API price a week after launch. That is not a pricing strategy. That is panic.
The market noticed. JPMorgan downgraded MiniMax and upgraded Zhipu on the same day. Zhipu stock went up 1,300% this year. MiniMax slid.
Then the lock-up expired.
On July 8, roughly 153 million shares became tradable at once. Free float went from 4% to 50% overnight. The stock dropped 18% in a single session!
The next day MiniMax announced a $2B fundraise. At a discount. Same week. The stock dropped another 10%.
Zhipu raised $4B the same week at better terms. Investors lined up. Marc Andreessen called GLM-5.2 "the first Chinese AI model to match and often beat the American big lab public models."
The CEO of MiniMax sent an internal memo saying he will take no salary until the company achieves AGI. He pledged 5% of his personal stake to employees and open source.
That memo landed on the same day as the fundraise. Not a coincidence.
MiniMax has good technology. M3 is competitive on benchmarks. But competitive is not enough when your rival is pulling ahead on narrative, enterprise contracts, and government connections through Tsinghua University.
The stock now sits at HK$268. Down 80% from peak. The CEO is working for free. The company just diluted everyone who bought at HK$165 or higher.
The question is not whether MiniMax can build good models. It clearly has in the past. The question is whether the company can get back to its roots of producing high quality models that are small in size and pack a powerful punch.
Yan Junjie says he won't take a salary until AGI. The market is asking a shorter question: what have you shipped lately that's worth using?

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@MelvinInvests @_Investinq The productive calculable dollar impact that 1GW has?
Zero
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Most neoclouds will fail but Nebius will be the king of them all and it's on its way to becoming a trillion dollar company (Save this).
As Jensen Huang says that one gigawatt of AI compute generates $300 to $400 billion in intelligence and the cost to build that gigawatt data center was $50 billion when he first said it.
Then, months later, he revised it upward to $100 billion as next generation Blackwell architecture, denser power infrastructure and cooling complexity drove costs higher.
And that is exactly the filter that kills most neoclouds.
When a 1GW data center costs $100 billion to build, this is no longer a game that startups, lightly capitalized operators, or companies without iron clad customer contracts can play.
The neoclouds that survive will be the ones that locked in power at scale before the window closed, secured hyperscaler customers before the capacity came online, and built software layers deep enough that customers stay rather than churn to the next available GPU rack.
Most neoclouds have none of those three things simultaneously but Nebius has all of them.
The revenue growth alone is one of the most extraordinary numbers in public markets right now.
In Q1 2025, Nebius generated $50.9 million in revenue. In Q1 2026, it generated $399 million, a 684% increase in twelve months and the management is guiding for $7 to $9 billion in annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026, implying 540% growth within a single calendar year.
Behind that trajectory is a power buildout that has no real peer outside the hyperscalers.
As Nebius Founder says, how many companies today provide hundreds of thousands of GPUs in a publicly available cloud? The three hyperscalers, and Nebius and that's the list.
The contracted power capacity tells the full story.
Nebius entered 2025 targeting 1 GW of contracted power by year-end 2026 and by Q4 2025 that target had been revised to 2.5 GW.
By Q1 2026 earnings, contracted power had reached 3.5 GW already above the prior target with guidance raised again to over 4 GW by year-end.
A new gigawatt-scale campus in Pennsylvania was announced in June 2026, targeting 1.2 GW at full completion, with 250 to 350 MW available by end of 2027 and owned facilities across five sites, New Jersey, Finland, the UK, France, and Israel will deliver 3 GW total.
The customer base is the other reason survival is not in question.
Nebius has signed contracts worth over $46 billion with Meta and Microsoft dedicated AI data center capacity commitments running through 2031.
The $17.4 billion Microsoft deal alone covers dedicated GPU capacity for a new center in Ireland starting this year.
These are five year take or pay agreements with the two largest technology companies on earth, signed before the facilities even opened and then there is the software layer, the part that most investors still haven't priced in.
Nebius has been acquiring rapidly to build a full inference and agentic AI platform, picking up Tavily, Eigen AI, and Clarifai to deepen its managed inference capabilities and AI orchestration stack.
Customers can run inference, build AI agents, develop custom models, and access the full software stack without leaving the platform and that software layer, stacked on top of GPU rental revenue, is already beginning to move overall margins structurally higher.
Extremely bullish on Nebius and make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests for more AI infrastructure ideas.
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New: Joe Rogan is shocked when Perplexity AI CEO Aravind Srinivas explains how Bill Gates tricked all of America into becoming office workers:
SRINIVAS: “Microsoft built this concept of the office worker because they wanted to sell office software.”
ROGAN: “Wow. This type of lifestyle is a very recent thing that we’ve just now accepted as normal.”
SRINIVAS: “It was the mission of Bill Gates to put a PC on every desk and get people glued to them.”
ROGAN: “What a freaking wizard. Boy did they nail that one.”
SRINIVAS: “It wasn’t about making computing beautiful like the vision Steve Jobs had.
All they cared about was selling computers so they could sell software. When you sell more software that’s when you become rich.”
ROGAN: “They’re so sneaky man.”
SRINIVAS: “That’s why we all got trained into using Microsoft Word and Excel.
Once you learned that then you could work for a company that has a PC on their desk who’s paying Microsoft money to use software.”
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Gods have signaled the best years are to come.
After a pullback.
RT@RT_com
NYC sky turns blood red at 250th anniversary celebration in 'bad omen'
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@Legacygolf2026 @CAgovernor But aren't they still leech States? In that they take more from the federal government than they give?
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@CAgovernor That’s like 5% per year. It is growth, just not sure that is worth bragging about. Kansas grew just a bit more than California at 45% . Nevada grew at 60% same period. Texas comes in at 74% same period.
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Meta burns $2.65B a year on AI tokens. at $300K for a Meta engineer, that's enough to pay ~9,000 engineers for a full year.
now ask yourself: since the layoffs, has Meta shipped anything that feels like 9,000 engineers’ worth of output?
Valuetainment@valuetainment
NEW: Meta employees consumed 73.7 trillion AI tokens in a single month. Which costs roughly $221 million a month and around $2.65 billion a year.
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this is f*cking gold
Andrej Karpathy joined Anthropic five weeks ago.
A friend on his team just showed me the exact LOOPS.md file he actually uses.
I dropped it into my setup. The very first response was different.
Not slightly different. Completely different.
Claude stopped giving generic answers and started working exactly the way I think.
You don't talk to the model anymore. You build the system that talks to the model for you.
Bookmark it before it gets lost in your feed.
Read it now, then check the article below.

Khairallah AL-Awady@eng_khairallah1
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