goodalexander@goodalexander
Stuff I wish I knew when I was younger:
1. Doing something poorly and consistently is better than doing it in a world class manner occasionally
2. Other people tell you to take risks bc they want to see what happens or have a free option if you win not bc they think it’s a good idea
3. Most people don’t think about you at all. But some people think about you a lot. If someone who is a baller takes an interest in you for no particular reason just run with it. One trick to vastly improve your relationship outcomes is spend time w people who like you (not ppl who ignore you or treat you poorly).
4. Everything in your life you can categorize as 1) addictive 2) enjoyable. And if you do a bunch of non addictive enjoyable things it’s quite likely you’ll be happier. If you stop doing that basket you’ll burn out, predictably
5. It’s a lot easier to deal directly with negative thoughts than it is to deal with the life circumstances generating them and most of the time you can actually deal w the circumstances more effectively if you’re not tilted
6. Most of the economy is a cartel defined by proximity to central banks, the government, and a small elite. The reason “contrarian” ideas work isn’t because they’re good. It’s bc they’re “king made”. It’s decided in advance who is going to win. You need to decide if you’re going to play or not. There is no halfway
7. Being mad about the system being rigged is a waste of time it’s a lot better to just bet on it, or invest with that as an edge bc most people aren’t blackpilled enough.
8. Most studies - especially social science studies have criminally low r sq or poor methodology. Such that most things you read online don’t actually work. At the same time - your own response to things is fairly predictable. So if you find something that works - you can just go back to that - a lot more easily than optimizing something new
9. Life getting worse after 30 is a scam. Actually - it might genuinely get worse for most people. But it doesn’t have to. The people who most loudly tell you what you need to be happy are the least happy people
10. Over time your outcomes are mostly determined by the quality of your network, your investment rate of return and your tax rate. But every once in a while you can do something non linear that can be a home run. It’s best to do non linear things during asset bubbles or when you have a hot hand. It’s not a good idea to do non linear things when there isn’t strong investor appetite for risk taking
11. Your behaviors will tell you stuff you’re not dealing with. If you’re overeating or sleeping poorly it’s probably bc there’s something you haven’t acknowledged or faced or are putting off
12. As you move towards a singularity , accelerating progress or a purported societal shift the predictability decreases - rather than increasing. People are the most certain at maximum acceleration when the very nature of acceleration or complexity suggests they should do the opposite. If AGI is coming start thinking 1 week out not 3 years out
