abxx
5.5K posts
abxx
@abdullah_717
•Gemini• too late to the party
United States Katılım Ocak 2011
1.2K Takip Edilen231 Takipçiler
Stock Market May Fall Up To 30% This Year, Warns Economist Gary Shilling
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@smartertrader Will open gap
Up what’s the use
EVEYRHING is always front ran
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@InsiderWire Then why did you guys let the market rally from 5,300? It wasn't clearly the bottom but you guys did it so that everybody misses the bottom on purpose. Actually the market makers are who are manipulating the market not the retail investors.
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#BREAKING: Warren Buffett says U.S. investors are in a “gambling mood” more than ever before.
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@VolSignals Since no gex master called out the 6,300 bottom to 7,200 xpx. To be honest I feel almost everyone is incompetent on X and not up to the mark. I guess there are some real ones out there but I guess they don't post on Twitter
Not pointing out to you you are good in general
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Bingo.
If you observe the market is systematically behaving one way, and you complain while losing money fighting it– instead of calibrate to riding the currents, you need to evaluate whether you’re mature enough to keep risking capital since you’re committing an obvious error
david@sdav1986
this is causing mediocre traders to go into conspiracy theories. Typical behavior, I have seen it many times, when they lose money they blame everyone else but themselves. No buddy, you just suck at trading… and even if there is market manipulation and you understand it then why on earth didn’t you use your understanding to make money out of it. not to be taken seriously.
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@myfirstmilpod No one cares. This market is rigged. Market makers just buy
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If you bought the S&P in late 2024 betting on 8-10% returns, you're about to lose a decade of your financial life.
Billionaire investor Howard Marks on the JP Morgan chart everyone's ignoring:
At the end of 2024, the S&P was at a P/E of 23. Historically, every single time the market hits a P/E of 23, the next 10 years returned between 2% and -2% annualized.
NO exceptions.
What this means: if you invested $100K at the end of 2024, by 2034 you'll have between $82K and $122K.
Best case (2% annualized): you barely beat inflation
Worst case (-2% annualized): you lose 18% of your money
Either way, high-yield savings beats your "aggressive" portfolio
This isn't a bearish prediction. It's a historical certainty based on the price you chose to pay.
@thesamparr @ShaanVP
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@JesseCohenInv This is the shit. They don't teach you in any books. No market maker, no gamma, theta can teach you this
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@Limitlesss1 @unusual_whales Why do you use SPI Flow instead of SPX Flow? Since spx is the queen, so why not just use the flow from the queen?
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📚Here's A Trading Tip: Learn the Price to Premium Theory
Separate video on How I Caught $SPY and SPX Put options today Using Price-to-Premium GAP (Unusual Whales Recap) via @unusual_whales Data
Checkout this RECAP of todayas action using a SEPERATE video form TODAY'S LIVE STREAM: I go over the price to premium gap that we traded afterward
This was a live SPY read using Unusual Whales data.
First hour, price was moving higher — but 0DTE traders were selling calls, buying puts, and net volume was negative.
So price looked strong, but participation underneath was bearish.
That’s where the disconnect shows up.
Net Call premium was pushing down while price was pushing up — while net puts getting bought on the move higher.
That’s a price to premium gap.
Net calls moving lower on the Y axis, price moving higher… price up near 712, net calls down near 710 — that separation is the signal.
Because according to my reformed approach using Unusual Whales, price and net call premium usually move together
If Net call Premium drop, price tends to drop to the level on the Y-axis that net calls dropped to.. If calls rise, price tends to rise to the level at which net call premium rises to. The price to premium theory.
But here, net call premium was falling while price was rising — clear misalignment between price and data.
That’s where the trade comes from.
Not chasing the move, but anticipating alignment during misalignment..
If net calls are positioned bearish below 710 while price is above 712, that gap doesn’t hold.
It fills.
And typically, in a bearish sentiment, price comes down to where premium is already positioned.
When price and data disagree, don’t follow price — follow positioning.
Get access to Unusual Whales data here: unusualwhales.com
Scholar@Limitlesss1
💡Live Video: Learn How I traded SPX put options today for 50% ROI $SPY This morning I traded SPX puts live and locked in over a 50% return on investment within minutes — and this wasn’t luck, it was a fully data-backed setup using Unusual Whales. Here’s the breakdown in a way you can actually apply: First, I identified the environment. I was looking at market maker periscope exposure, which showed that market makers were mostly short gamma, with several negative gamma pockets right around where price was trading. That matters because in negative gamma, price tends to move more aggressively — it’s not stable. Then I flipped over to the daily market tide to understand positioning: Net Call Premium (calls bought – calls sold) was negative Net Put Premium (puts bought – puts sold) was positive So what does that mean? ➡️ Traders were buying puts and selling calls — overall bearish positioning. On top of that, participation confirmed it: Net volume was overwhelmingly negative Traders were net short options So now I know — the environment is bearish and aggressive. Next, I zoomed in. On the 0DTE market tide (this is KEY if you're trading same-day expiration), I saw: Net flow hitting a new low of the day Net call premium also hitting a new low of the day Quick tip: 👉 If you’re trading SPY/SPX 0DTE, you NEED to watch the 0DTE market tide — it tells you the real-time lean of positioning. Now here’s where the trade came alive… I spotted a price-to-premium gap. Price was moving higher… But net call premium was making new lows. That’s a disconnect. According to my price-to-premium gap theory: 👉 Price and premium (especially net call premium) should move together 👉 If they don’t, they will eventually reunite And most of the time? ➡️ Price catches up to premium. In this case: Premium was pushing down Price was still moving up That told me price was likely going to drop to match the bearish premium. So I took the put trade. Even through a -10% drawdown, I didn’t panic — because this wasn’t hope. This was data-backed conviction. And within minutes, price aligned with the data… locking in +50% ROI. ⚠️ Final takeaway: This wasn’t guessing. This wasn’t emotion. This was understanding positioning, trusting the data, and executing with discipline. If you want to see it all play out live — check the video below where I walk through every step in real time. Get access to all the tools I use on @unusual_whales here:unusualwhales.com/flow/overview
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If Jane Street is making so much money, why isn't anyone coming in to compete thus reducing their revenue? Technological barriers to entry?
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@NEVERDOOMPRO Then life shuts you down, then at 30 you just can't wait to die
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Correct positions + hedging knowledge
feels like a having a crystal ball sometimes 🎯
VolSignals@VolSignals
Looks like vol goes up tomorrow, not down
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@spotgamma No gex platform, no market maker buddy, no one ever tells you the market has high probability to just rip today. No one ever tells any kind of alpha. All the alpha remains with hedge funds.
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@Mr_Derivatives Heis today is the day LMT finish in the green, mark it!
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The last time I said buy $META leaps, it 3x’ed in less than a month.
I’m saying again, there’s an opportunity soon to reload those same leaps here…
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives
There’s $NFLX and chill. There’s $VOO and chill. And now there is $META leaps and chill. Come back to me in 12 months. I’m 90% sure you will be ok.
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Crazy what AI agents can do right now.
I turned TradingView into an autonomous strategy research pipeline.
Before this, testing one idea meant writing Pine Script, copy pasting errors, fixing it with ChatGPT, running the backtest, screenshotting the equity curve, then doing it again for every symbol and timeframe.
Now i describe the strategy in plain English.
Claude writes the Pine code, injects it into TradingView Desktop, compiles it, reads the errors, fixes them, runs the strategy tester, pulls the metrics, and compares ES, NQ, YM and GC without me touching the keyboard.
All props to Trades Don’t Lie for the open source tool.
This is not about one strategy.
It’s about turning research into a factory.
The traders still manually copy pasting code into ChatGPT are going to get left behind.
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@StockOptionCole Well
This rally only exist because hedge funds and big market players knew the pain trade would have been not to give a chance to buy the dip
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@hughesanalytics Most of the hedge fund are just MANIPULATING markets , insider trading , influencing through politics and calling it trading LOL
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I see a new batch of quant and algorithmic trading experts in my feed. They all know how Jane Street works.
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Jane Street made ~$40B in 2025 with 3,500 employees, a ~2x from the year before.
At ~65-70% profit margin, that's $8M profit / employee, the highest for a 1000+ ppl company. High-frequency trading continues to be the most efficient money making engine.
I want to share an old story about my Jane Street interview in 2014. Jane Street was known for hiring a lot of math, physics and CS olympiad winners from top universities and putting them through many rounds - including, for trading roles, a gauntlet of mental math. It was my 6th interview and my final round and I recall being asked "What is the next day after today in DD/MM/YYYY where all the digits are unique?" They'd toy with you and say "You can use a pencil and paper, if you want" but you knew that was an instant no. Painstakingly and as quickly as I could, I came to an answer. "How confident are you that this is correct on a 0-1 probability scale?" the interviewer said. "0.95", I blurted out, not fully knowing how to answer that. "Are you sure?" After thinking harder for a few more seconds, I realized I could've flipped the digits around to get a closer date. I gave the interviewer my answer. It was correct. "0.95 huh?" he chuckled. That's when I knew I failed.
Note: fwiw, other companies that come close in efficiency are
- Tether ($90M+ profit/emp)
- Hyperliquid ($80M+ profit/emp)
and on revenue:
- Valve ($50M/emp)
- OnlyFans ($37M/emp)
- Craigslist ($14M/emp)
- Anthropic ($12M/emp, run rate)
- OpenAI ($8M/emp, run rate)
For comparison, Nvidia is very efficient at scale and is $4.4M/emp.
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