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browndisaster

@abrowndisaster

$IREN for the long term, swing trader for everything else. PNW and Director of Product for Agentic AI. I also give moustache rides

Portland, OR Katılım Temmuz 2023
122 Takip Edilen89 Takipçiler
browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@Marketmakemkc @aleabitoreddit no I'm serious. I worked for a Swedish company in Halmstad for 10yrs. The CFO of that company just joined the board of SIVE. He was brought into my former company for strategic acquisitions as they scaled. Super-sharp guy and one of the more technical CFOs I had ever met.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Wait until you realize that this is actually NASDAQ liquidity required for the US listing/float. And proceeds are expected go to $SIVE M&A (they hired 2 acquisition related board members). For photonics TAM/Revenue expansion. Not only that, all the small companies they worked with from Celestial to Lightmatter ended up being swallowed up by Marvell or became independent billion dollar companies. So Sivers is by far the most knowledgable in what to acquire at the very start. Which is why I call $SIVE the Kingmaker for CPO. This is in fact extremely bullish for Sivers.
Micro Spy 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸@Roadstockz

@MacnBTC Depends how long it takes retail to realize that there is a 15% dilution proposal coming up mid june. lol

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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@CrypticTrades_ $IREN has proven that they execute better than anybody else. While others scramble to be first, $IREN focuses on being the best. I saw it when they overtook $CLSK, and I'm about to see it again.
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Cryptic Trades
Cryptic Trades@CrypticTrades_·
Might not be a popular take But $IREN is the next $NBIS
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franklee6924x
franklee6924x@franklee6924T·
AI Compute Is Approaching a Turning Point $NBIS’s current premium valuation is essentially a market prepayment on the narrative of a “future hyperscale AI cloud platform.” Wall Street is willing to assign it extremely high multiples mainly because of its explosive revenue growth and the credibility backing it receives from Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. From that perspective, it arguably deserves a higher valuation than $IREN. But what the market is pricing today is not a risk-adjusted path — it is the theoretical best-case outcome. Recent target price increases from Citi and Goldman Sachs have only reinforced expectations around this idealized success scenario. NBIS’s current business model follows a classic project-finance structure: first pre-sell long-term capacity, then finance against those contracts, then lease and build data centers, deploy GPUs, and finally deliver to customers. In the short term, this model provides financing capability, revenue visibility, and attractive backlog figures. But the tradeoff is that future profit elasticity becomes locked in, while strategic flexibility declines. As electricity prices rise and compute infrastructure architectures evolve, NBIS risks missing significant upside from both trends. Although NBIS emphasizes that “75% of contracted power has shifted to owned contracted capacity,” contracted does not mean energized, built, delivered, or operational. Much of this so-called capacity still exists only at the stage of land agreements, power intentions, or development contracts. The real risk in the neocloud industry is not lack of demand — it is execution and delivery. GPUs arriving does not mean they can immediately go online. Approved power does not mean actual grid connection. A completed data center does not mean liquid cooling has been fully commissioned. Signed customers do not automatically translate into recognized revenue. NBIS’s ramp guidance is extremely aggressive, targeting growth from roughly 170MW to 800MW–1GW within about a year. In the real infrastructure world, that pace is nearly anti-physical. Substations, cooling systems, high-voltage distribution, grid approvals, liquid-cooling stability, and supply-chain coordination can each become bottlenecks. Any delay could result in project slippage, contract penalties, idle GPUs, and deteriorating capital efficiency. If all of these systems were fully vertically controlled internally, the execution credibility would be much higher. But once multiple third parties are involved, it becomes difficult to ensure flawless coordination across the board. Yet NBIS’s valuation today largely assumes these problems will be solved smoothly. The risk is that the market is valuing NBIS like a future hyperscaler, while in reality it remains a highly leveraged AI infrastructure contractor with substantial construction risk and long-term margins that are still unproven. That gap represents an enormous valuation leap. NBIS’s rapid expansion, strong EBITDA, and growing backlog exist because it is not truly solving infrastructure constraints — it is financially routing around them. It resembles an asset assembler for the AI era, rapidly piecing together capacity through leased campuses, power agreements, third-party data centers, structured financing, and NVIDIA ecosystem support. The heavy work of self-built, self-controlled, long-cycle infrastructure simply takes time. It is understandable why capital markets reward this type of short-term efficiency, but genuinely scarce resources are difficult to sustain through asset assembly alone. The bottleneck is gradually shifting away from GPUs and toward power, time, grid interconnection, scalable campuses, and high-density liquid-cooling infrastructure. Whoever controls these assets will ultimately possess the real pricing power. This is precisely the fundamental strategic difference between IREN and companies like NBIS and CRWV. CRWV pioneered the model of using contracts to drive financing and financing to drive expansion, and NBIS followed that path. Neocloud is still a newly formed category, and the market’s valuation framework has largely been shaped around CRWV’s approach: whoever can monetize GPUs into revenue the fastest wins. That is why the market capitalizations of CRWV, NBIS, and IREN have correlated almost perfectly with total contracted capacity. IREN effectively stopped after the Microsoft deal and no longer appeared eager to aggressively pre-sell capacity, despite arguably being one of the most qualified companies to do so. Instead, it placed “bringing compute online” as the top priority and shifted its strategic focus toward transforming scarce secured resources into fully operational AI factories as quickly as possible. The market is rewarding whoever monetizes GPUs the fastest — not whoever brings real compute infrastructure online the fastest. Capital’s choice is practical: the benefits of the former appear immediately, while the latter takes time and includes many variables that are difficult to measure today. Whether investors can recognize that difference is becoming an important test. If you believe the future will continue to be dominated primarily by standalone GPUs, then the current market valuation framework is probably correct. But if you believe the future will instead be defined by the integration of GPUs with power infrastructure, grid interconnection, high-voltage distribution, liquid-cooling stability, cluster orchestration, network topology, and uptime, then the market’s current valuation direction may ultimately prove to be a trap. IREN’s agreement with Microsoft was not just about validating capability. The larger purpose was to prepare and validate the large-scale deployment of high-density racks and highly efficient liquid cooling systems, positioning itself ahead of the industry’s biggest upcoming transition. Why has IREN seemingly pursued “No deal” afterward? I believe the answer is gradually becoming clear: AI compute is transitioning away from a world where the GPU chip alone is the central character and toward an integrated AI factory model. In this new paradigm, the moat is no longer simply GPUs — it becomes GPUs combined with power, land, grid access, high-voltage distribution, liquid-cooling stability, cluster orchestration, network topology, and uptime. The barrier becomes much higher and the moat becomes much wider. NVIDIA is positioning itself to dominate the foundational layer of the AI industry through this transition. If this direction becomes dominant, then the valuation foundation currently supporting CRWV and NBIS — maximizing near-term GPU monetization — will fundamentally change. The entire underlying logic of AI compute development will shift. Dell’s integration capabilities, IREN’s more advanced AI factory capabilities, and the DSX intelligent factory systems they are building together with NVIDIA could become the center of AI industry development for years to come. NVIDIA has now delivered two consecutive earnings reports far above expectations while the stock price reaction remained relatively muted. My guess is that Wall Street still does not fully see the future form of compute infrastructure. Standalone GPU performance may be approaching its practical ceiling around the VERA RUBIN generation, so the next layer of compute evolution likely shifts toward large-scale integration. If NVIDIA confirms this direction in future earnings commentary, then the valuation frameworks of all companies involved in this transition could be completely rewritten. CRWV and NBIS were key enablers during the era when standalone NVIDIA GPUs were the core protagonist of AI compute. In the coming era of integrated AI factories and intelligent infrastructure, they will still play important roles — but the logic behind how they are valued may change dramatically.
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@DNV99999 Agreed, $120 is a solid conservative price target 1yr from now. I think we're going past $200 this year with market froth though.
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@BitcoinAIGuy first it was block by block, now it's watt by watt. people really forget that IREN ran from $5 to $75 over the course of 6 months while the first part of the story was still being digested. looking forward to folks digesting the sovereign hyperscaler story this time around...
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BitcoinAIGuy
BitcoinAIGuy@BitcoinAIGuy·
Only reply to this if you think $IREN will outperform $NBIS
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@Comedyorwat 100%, and... Jackie's lessons are gold and well worth the price of admission. You have access to practiced knowledge across many indicators. RSI, MAs, and fibs are all I use. You'll develop your own style with time and learn TA = risk management, not predicting the future.
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JACKIE LE' TITS 👑🌈
JACKIE LE' TITS 👑🌈@Comedyorwat·
Why are so many of you afraid of learning? Betting on yourself is the single greatest accomplishment you can achieve in your lifetime
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@cantonmeow people are spoiled with up-only. bullish backtests are the price to pay for the big moves.
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Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈@cantonmeow·
Judging by the comments, this stock still has a lot higher to go
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Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈@cantonmeow·
$IREN has broken out of the bullish descending wedge, which favors bullish continuation, but it's currently stuck in a range. If it holds the bottom of the range, it'd be a higher low on a renewed bull trend.
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈 tweet media
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@foliotrail·
@mcF_dan Absolutely. But in terms of total capacity 60MW is "only" 12% of the 5GW portfolio.
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@foliotrail·
No big deal announced for $IREN - disappointing? yes. Patience. I know Dan is trying to ink the right deal for us. From our side it feels like forever, but long term we want to avoid being bullied by Hyperscalers/AI lab. Otherwise the capital flywheel breaks.
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Jake Wujastyk
Jake Wujastyk@Jake__Wujastyk·
I anticipate a RoaringKitty post (doesn’t matter what, could be of his gooch) by Thursday at 12:01 AM. If that happens. $5k more given away. 2 people, $2,500 each. Comment “HELLO” to be eligible for the giveaway.
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@BitcoinAIGuy Sadly for them it'll be their liquidity (them selling) which will fuel us up to $200+.
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BitcoinAIGuy
BitcoinAIGuy@BitcoinAIGuy·
I’m hearing some anxious $IREN bulls already talking about rotating out of $IREN into the “next play” Too soon. $IREN hasn’t even overtaken $NBIS or $CRWV yet… I’m happy to entertain other opportunities once something actually happens in the big leagues. $200 first.
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@BoBbyPleWniaK @pbrat2000 I'm a safe driver and had never gotten a speeding ticket. Until I drove in WA... they're ruthless and it's a real revenue-generator for them.
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Bobby Plewniak
Bobby Plewniak@BoBbyPleWniaK·
Bobby driving 17 years = resulted in 2 tickets. Bobby using FSD 2 years = 2 speeding tickets.
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browndisaster retweetledi
Daniel Roberts
Daniel Roberts@danroberts0101·
Feels like we’re still early in the compute cycle. Supply isn’t easy, real-world constraints are everywhere. And every step forward in AI just seems to create more demand for compute.
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@BitcoinAIGuy Been waiting for Q2'2026 for a while, no way I'm going anywhere now.
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BitcoinAIGuy
BitcoinAIGuy@BitcoinAIGuy·
REMOVING INACTIVE MEMBERS THIS WEEKEND REPLY IF YOU ARE STILL BULLISH 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 THE BULLS ARE BACK!
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@kevinxu $10M in the 401k, ladder that into the Roth little by little, let each tranche season for 5yrs, withdraw and enjoy life.
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Kevin Xu
Kevin Xu@kevinxu·
would you rather have: - $10M in a 401k - $5M in a Roth
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@Comedyorwat The psychological component. I can notice that I'm impatient with my entries, and patients with my exits (whether they're stops or profit targets). I know that I need to be patient with entries and impatient with stops and targets, but it takes practice/effort.
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@BitcoinAIGuy Never easy, but literally nothing had happened yet. Just stay the course and be patient.
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BitcoinAIGuy
BitcoinAIGuy@BitcoinAIGuy·
Reply if you’re holding strong 💼 💎 🙌
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@TheTechInvest Pure speculation, but that's what you might say when they're in the pipeline. But if that's true, there's a chance that $IREN might not want OpenAI as a customer (for numerous reasons) and are still talking to Anthropic to ink a deal. I'm rooting for that outcome.
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The Tech Investor
The Tech Investor@TheTechInvest·
Is $OpenAI a partner? Dan: Can’t comment 🤷‍♂️
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browndisaster
browndisaster@abrowndisaster·
@BitcoinAIGuy AI compute constraints haven't gone away (5hr window anybody?), Jevon's paradox has barely kicked in, and folks are simultaneously calling agents/LLMs a bubble while trying to slow down the pace of innovation. $160 is still on deck this year, easily.
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BitcoinAIGuy
BitcoinAIGuy@BitcoinAIGuy·
reply if u didn't panic sell
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