Andrew Busch

A cautionary reminder for those supporting the SAVE act. Passports and birth certificates required. usatoday.com/story/news/pol…

@ilangoldenberg 2 is wrong, see 2018 documents Israel took from Iran showing they cheated on the agreement and created secret areas of nuclear development.

This article is compelling and smart. I’ve seen it forwarded around a lot. Let’s walk through why it’s wrong.  1. The author argues that Iran’s military infrastructure especially its drones and missiles are being systematically taken apart.  True. But in the aftermath who is going to keep it that way? After the 12 day war Israel and Trump declared Iran’s capacity to make war “obliterated” and set back for a generation. Less than a year later they went back to war because of how quickly Iran was rebuilding. This campaign is much more comprehensive, but the same problem still applies. How to avoid being stuck in the aftermath in a “mow the lawn” scenario where the US has to expend tremendous assets that could be directed elsewhere in the world - especially towards the Indopacific. And where the region operates at a new unstable normal where all previous taboos on military action are off. 2.  He argues that the nuclear infrastructure had to be disassembled because one president after another had just let Iran’s nuclear program grow. Not true. Obama had managed to dramatically and verifiably reduce Iran’s nuclear capacity through the JCPOA. Trump killed that. 3. He argues Iran is self harming by stopping its own oil from going through the Strait of Hormuz. This was always an assumption before the war, but they’ve managed to shut down the Strait for everyone else while still exporting 1 million bbls per day of their own stuff.  That makes this much more sustainable.  4. He Argues that Iran’s proxy networks are dramatically weakened. True, but also as we’ve learned from previous conflicts they will regenerate and it’s impossible to root them out with a military strategy alone if there is no political follow up to create a better alternative. That is why Israel is on the verge of a major campaign in Lebanon only a year and a half after supposedly setting back Hezbollah for a generation. These fights are costly Pyrrhic victories that will just need to be fought again and again and again unless there is a political strategy to consolidate victory which both Israel and the US have failed at since October 7th.  5. Finally, the author argues that we need to ignore the President’s own words about regime change and the Iranian people rising up and focus on what the military is doing.  But that’s not how war works. War is fought to achieve a political objective. If there is no clear objective set out by the political leadership it’s impossible to translate battlefield victories into a consolidated win.  By setting the bar at regime change Trump has made it extraordinarily hard for the US to be perceived as winning even if the military executes the plans. Perception is a big part of the battle in war. And again the costs are incredibly high. And as the author argues, the only way this works is if there is a plan to contain and keep Iran down in the aftermath. Do we have any faith in Trump to do that? Again that is going to be incredibly expensive and require a presence like what the US left in the Middle East after the first Gulf War to contain Saddam.  That’s something we could afford in 1991 when the US was a unipolar power. But not in 2026 when we have a real competitor in China that we need to manage.  aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2…

Is it just me or is this like the scene out of Jaws where in the movie Mayor Larry Vaughn walks around beach telling people to go swimming? wsj.com/livecoverage/u…

Iranian War demonstrates the difficulty of waging war without clear goals. Goals matter, dominoes fall & outcomes cascade out further than one can imagine. SoH closure, oil/gasoline/diesel prices spiking, inflation will rise, interest rates rising, stock market lower, risk of Russia & China assisting Iran...And the list goes on. None are good for US economy or jobs. You can say what you want about MAGA supporters, but they didn't want US involvement in either forever war or ME war and thought that's what they were voting for. Top podcaster Joe Rogan weighs in. nytimes.com/2026/03/11/us/…

@jimiuorio Jealous, great band

@abusch I’ve seen them about 5 times but all after Lowell George died..I still think they were fantastic…

Let’s have some fun…the 3 best concerts you’ve ever been to..for me. 1) Simon and Garfunkel comisky park 1983 2) Farm aid Champaign Illinois 1985 3) little Feat palatine street fest 1995ish

Why the War in Iran is destabilising global financial markets: slate.com/podcasts/what-… @abusch foresaw this: amazon.com.au/World-Event-Tr…

1. Is Trump planning to "Venezuelize" Iran? This analysis deviates from the mainstream media portrayal of a fickle, senile, or Bibi-led president. It assumes Trump is evil but rational. A thread. 🧵

Here’s my question, how can stocks continue to go up when treasury yields are higher and the price of oil is near $80? Does the market really think that the treasury backstopping insurance for tankers is going to work? What transportation company would think that they’ll get safe passage and it’s worth the risk? The US economy is growing at a 3% clip, inflation is going to be running north of 3%, and energy prices are going up. The Fed could be cited by Congress for deriliction of duty if the cut interest rates any time soon. Im not the smartest guy, but this is bit baffling.

There has never been an administration as ignorant about economics as Trump's. Economists rightly love congestion pricing but Trump tried to kill it. nytimes.com/2026/03/03/nyr…

@ianbremmer This isn’t a robust pol as it doesn’t describe what the problem is, is the problem the way immigration is being handled? Is the problem the way that government is acting? Pretty broad can mean a lot of things to different people.

what do americans think is the number one problem in the country? the government.

From the Holy Land to Sin City in 72 hours! Psyched up to keynote at NRMCA conference at Fountainebleau in Las Vegas. Providing actionable growth strategies to deal with the Iranian war, including cyber attacks, supply chain disruption, and soaring energy prices. Chaos provides opportunities!

War has begun. Where it goes from here, hard to say. This certainly isn't what many Trump supporters wanted, but is necessary for change. Iran is an Islamic theocracy with imams in every neighborhood and govt. has been able to control the country since the revolution in 1978. Iran isn't Iraq, but how will regime change happen without US/Israeli support on the ground? Oil will jump, stocks likely to fall, bonds likely to continue to rally. wsj.com/livecoverage/i…

If you're wondering why you or your kids can't afford a home, read on. From 2000-2024, median incomes rose 155%. Sadly, median home prices rose 207%. The average age of a 1st time home owner rose 10 years! Connecting the dots: If you have to wait 10 years to afford a home, you don't form a family. If you don't form a family, birth rates decline. If birth rates decline, you have fewer workers. If you have fewer workers, you have less people paying taxes. If you have less people paying taxes, you have less funds for Social Security and Medicare. What accelerates this? Current immigration policies. The US goes to zero population growth by 2032 if we stay on this path. (See CBO estimates) Due to this, plan for a fiscal crisis starting in 2029-2030. stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy…

For all my HODL crypto friends, BBG has some sobering thoughts. "Nearly 9 million Bitcoin — 45% of all tokens in circulation — is worth less than what its holders paid for it. That helps explain why every rally is dying on arrival — burned holders sell into any bounce, sapping upward momentum." From peak of Trump coin driven BTC rally to $125k to $66k today. Not saying it can't go up, just brutal for 45% of all tokens in circulation. HOOD crushed as well. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

This is how Republicans lose the House. “The fact is,” he said in an interview on Saturday, “if she is the Republican nominee in the Third District, Democrats will win that district.” nytimes.com/2026/02/21/us/…

Florida man now feels "pain of regret" voting for Trump—after ICE detains his fiancée to deport her back to Cuba. They were both staunch MAGA supporters—he voted and she "prayed for him" to win. "We didn't think that he'd ever deport someone back to Cuba," he cries. "I mean, people say I voted for this... but I didn't vote for THIS!" Yamile Alcantu has been locked up for the past 8 months—she received deportation order after cops found 3 Xanax pills in her purse during a traffic stop. Her fiancée and life partner of 20 years, Wayne DeMario, is now left alone to run their guitar store in Miami, Florida.

The Supreme Court tariff decision reduces custom duties and grows outlays, thus increasing annual deficits. · Total CBO revenues fall by $3.1 trillion, · total CBO outlays rise (because of higher interest expense) by $948 billion, · and deficits grow from $24.4 to $28.4 trillion.