Guy Laron

@amitbentzur @MazzucatoM 🎯

הבעיה היא לא AI, אלא Rent-AI: כשאלגוריתמים משמשים לריכוז כוח והפקת רווחים במקום לייצר ערך. השאלה היא לא אם לאמץ AI, אלא איך למנוע שהוא יהפוך לעוד מנגנון רנטה. #RentAI @MazzucatoM open.substack.com/pub/marianamaz…

@TheStalwart How did electrification and the shift to renewables worked out for Germany since the Ukraine War? Did these moves “insulate” the German economy from the turmoil in the energy market or led to a deep recession? China is a bigger version of the German model.

CHINA ALREADY GOT ITS FIRST WIN FROM THE WAR IN IRAN In today's newsletter, I wrote about how the long term trend of countries reducing their oil imports by substituting them with Chinese tech is already accelerating since the start of the war bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

@Nadav_Eyal The campaign to open the straits is already happening: wsj.com/world/middle-e…

Multiple reports say U.S. allies believe the Strait of Hormuz can’t be reopened by force or threats. Israeli officials, however, expect the Trump administration to apply heavy pressure or act forcefull to reopen it. This may not happen, but it’s what Israel is preparing for.

Just a reminder that in China, there is only energy addition, not an energy transition.

Kharg Island is still at play: "'We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations,' a source with knowledge of the White House thinking said." Per @axios axios.com/2026/03/20/ira…

על מה כל הסיפור הזה עם הנפט? נראה שלאן שלא מסתכלים במלחמה הזו רואים נפט: מיצרי הורמוז, תקיפות במתקני אנרגיה, מחירי חביות שרק עולים... אבל למה נפט כל כך חשוב? והאם לא עברנו כבר לאנרגיה מתחדשת? תודה ל @guy_laron שהגיע לקריאת השכמה לעשות סדר האזינו: rosame.org/4lDx2Vf

"America could no doubt capture [Kharg] island. The idea would be to use it as leverage: if Gulf states cannot export their oil, neither can Iran. If the regime proves stubborn, however, American marines would have to withstand a potential barrage..." economist.com/briefing/2026/…

I talked yesterday to @freddiesayers about why we are well beyond the point of no return in the Persian Gulf and why energy disruption might serve the Trump administration's geopolitical ambitions.

Who buys Qatar's LNG exports?

@alexwickham Sure, Beijing will see nothing but net positive in the fact that the U.S. is controlling its gas station

Exclusive: China’s military is studying Trump’s war on Iran for lessons that could prove helpful in any future conflict of its own, scrutinising US offensive capabilities as it sees the strategic balance shifting in its favour in the Indo-Pacific, according to Western officials familiar with the matter. Beijing is likely closely observing America’s military performance on display in Iran and gaining highly valuable information that it would almost certainly factor into its plans for any potential conflict over Taiwan, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. While China is still gaming out the economic and diplomatic consequences of the war, Xi Jinping would likely welcome the diversion of US attention and resources toward the Middle East and away from the Indo-Pacific, the officials said. They cited the Pentagon’s redeployment of military assets from Asia to Iran as a tangible reason for China’s military to draw positives from the conflict. The perceived advantage for China’s military suggests a second US adversary is benefiting from Trump’s war, after America’s allies warned Russia is emerging as the winner thanks to the rising oil price and easing of US sanctions. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The first part of our symposium on the American-Israeli war on Iran. Toby Craig Jones on the deep and terrible intertwining of Empire, oil and Palestine. @guy_laron on the history, and future, of oil wars. break-down.org/oil-war/

@MattZeitlin What he does not seem to get is that this is precisely the reason the U.S. is now fighting in the Gulf. Trump wants to counter China’s rare earth monopoly by taking over Beijing's gas station. If he succeeds, he would do to China what he just did to Cuba.

"In the decades that followed the end of the cold war, America had an effective monopoly on major sanctions. That is no longer the case. Iran and China have now shown that the era of US dominance in economic warfare is over."

@IranWonk I think the idea of a weak Iran led by hardliners is the one most favored by Netanyahu. Gulf states would have to rely on Israel for their security. The whole IMEC/ normalization thing would be brought back to the table without the pesky demand for a Palestinian statehood.

#Israel (and to lesser extent US) can live with: - Weak, fragmented, #IRGC-led hardline regime - Civil war and state collapse - Pro-US/-Israel Iran that recovers from Islamic Republic's 50-year failure in a generation Outcome up to Iranians (with nudges from key actors)

This useful map from @WSJ tells you all you need to know about U.S. war aims: it’s methodical bombing of Iran’s naval bases along the coast paves the way to open the straits of Hormuz and take Kharg Island. Meanwhile 🇮🇱 focuses on missiles sites and IRCG headquarters.

Israel: *drops a thermonuclear bomb on Tehran* Robert Pape: "Oh boy, this time the Israelis have really done it, they're in a world of trouble. They don't know it yet, but they just fell into the Nuclear Trap. The Iranians now have them right where they want them..."

@talhanm Trump needs EU minesweepers. Sounds absurd, but the U.S. doesn't have any. I think he will get it.

@guy_laron They are trying to respond to Trump without getting troops involved

Watch all the Israelis work themselves into a frenzy in their echo chambers

There are some ossified bits of Iran analysis that seem totally impervious to reassessment, and they're coming out again after Larijani's reported assassination From 'the system is bigger than one man, it was designed to handle losses' (surely it didn't anticipate the scale of losses we've seen since June) To 'this will empower more hardline figures' (they were already calling the shots, and analysis of what the hardliners *want* to do often fails to consider what they *can* do with Iran's greatly diminished capacity) I don't know what will happen to the Islamic republic after the war, none of us do, but there's too much analysis that applies a rigid pre-2023 view of the regime and fails to account for the truly unprecedented events that have happened since

@arash_tehran It might be the new normal because military technology has changed. The ability to track, identify, and close a "kill chain" has advanced dramatically in the age of the drone and AI. It's not norms - it's technology.

On Larijani's killing: Do we realize that, until recently, it was extremely rare for countries, even those at war, to simply kill each other's top political officials? Are we ready for this to be the 'new normal'?

The Basij is responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Iranian protesters in 2026; 2022-2023 (Women, Life, Freedom Movement); 2019 (Bloody November/gasoline prices protests); 2009 (Green Movement); and multiple protests the urban poor and students in the 1990s.

Kind reminder. That explains @BarakRavid latest scoop: twitter.com/BarakRavid/sta…