Guy Laron

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Guy Laron

Guy Laron

@guy_laron

Historian @hebrewu. @TheWilsonCenter fellow 2022-23. Published with @yalebooks _The Six Day War_ More here: https://t.co/MbRvR9FIad

Israel. Katılım Nisan 2015
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Guy Laron
Guy Laron@guy_laron·
Noise: U.S. carried out a tactical strike on Iranian naval forces; no end to the ceasefire. Signal: U.S. suspects the Iranians are trying to run down the clock until early July when the SPR runs out. War moves from infrastructure bombing to a fight for the Strait: Tanker War 2.0
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Jack Prandelli
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli·
Iran wants to be the trade corridor between China and Europe. The UAE is blocking it. Pakistan's army is stalling it. And the timing couldn't be more loaded. Iran is building a rail link Chabahar to Zahedan to Mirjaveh to connect, China's $62 billion infrastructure corridor through Pakistan to Gwadar port. The route would position Iran as a hub for trade between China, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and beyond. Progress in 2026: 50-60% complete. 2 forces are slowing it down simultaneously. The UAE, according to the Iran-Pakistan Chamber of Commerce, is actively obstructing Iran's CPEC integration protecting Dubai's dominance as the region's trade hub. Gwadar as a rival to Dubai is an existential commercial threat. Pakistan's army chief now Trump's primary Iran war mediator has allowed to stall as part of a broader tilt toward Washington. Of 90 originally planned projects, only 38 completed. No flagship project added since 2022. The geopolitical layers here are dense. Pakistan is simultaneously: mediating Iran-US peace talks, stalling China's flagship infrastructure project, and blocking Iran's corridor ambitions all while collecting leverage from every direction. source image: @DropSiteNews
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Guy Laron
Guy Laron@guy_laron·
China is heavily subsidizing its large manufacturers which allows them to export finished goods at dirt cheap prices. It's called dumping, and it looks like this golden era for Chinese industry is about to end. U.S. and EU are unwilling to accept that and are raising tariffs.
Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

1/3 SCMP: "A coalition of major EU member states is pushing Brussels towards a much tougher trade regime aimed at combating Chinese-style industrial overcapacity, including faster emergency tariffs, broader safeguards and new anti-circumvention powers." sc.mp/pwked?utm_sour…

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Guy Laron
Guy Laron@guy_laron·
In 1944, the American geologist, Everette Lee DeGolyer, came to Saudi Arabia and wrote that the center of gravity in the oil world was moving from the Caribbean to the Persian Gulf. Were he alive today, he would have written that the center of gravity moved back to the Americas.
Kyle Chan@kyleichan

Brazil has overtaken Saudi Arabia to be China’s second largest source of oil imports after Russia. Meanwhile, Chinese brands are dominating Brazil’s EV market, which is BYD’s largest market outside China. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

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Jack Prandelli
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli·
US trade with China collapsed $49 billion in one quarter. Taiwan surged $39 billion. The tariff war is redrawing global trade ⚠️ Biggest winners Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 → Taiwan: +$39B AI chips → Vietnam: +$18B manufacturing shift → Mexico: +$16B nearshoring Biggest losers: → China: -$49B → Ireland: -$44B pharma normalisation → Switzerland: -$36B → Canada: -$22B Taiwan's +$39B is the entire AI supply chain story in one number. TSMC's output has become a macroeconomic variable. Vietnam and Mexico are where China's factories went. The trade data now confirms it. China's -$49B is the largest collapse on the chart and this is before the full tariff escalation cycle completed. The decoupling isn't a trend. It's a fact.
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Alen Simonyan
Alen Simonyan@alensimonyan·
Today, Armenia has a railway connection with Russia through the territories of Georgia and Azerbaijan, and then with China through the territories of Russia and Kazakhstan. Now, it also has a connection with the European Union through the territories of Georgia and Türkiye. In the near future, the Armenia–Türkiye and Armenia–Azerbaijan railways will open, followed by the Armenia–Iran railway through Nakhchivan. We will witness these events in the near future as a result of the implementation of the TRIPP project.” @NikolPashinyan #CrossroadsOfPeace #Peace #Connectivity #Unblocking
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Guy Laron
Guy Laron@guy_laron·
@erant @almog_tamar אם ארה״ב מגיעה להסדר עם איראן, היא צריכה את ישראל הרבה פחות, ולכן היא לא תגונן עלינו מהלחץ של מדינות אירופה, ומה שראינו עד עכשיו הוא רק ההתחלה. בצדק או שלא, בראש של העולם יושב הרעיון שכל המלחמות מאז אוק׳ 23 התחילו עם עליית ממשלת המתנחלים בסוף 22׳. הלחץ והסנקציות יהיו מכוונים לשם.
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Eran Toch
Eran Toch@erant·
@almog_tamar זה יכול להיות טוב לנו כי זה בעצם מביא את איראן חזרה להסכם גרעין. אפשר לדון בשאלה האם ההסכם הזה טוב יותר או רע יותר מהסכם הגרעין של אובאמה, אבל יכול להיות שקיומו של כל הסכם עדיף על העדרו.
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Tamar Almog | תמר אלמוג
שואלת ברצינות (בנסיון לקושש אופטימיות): יש איזשהו, משהו, שטוב לישראל בהסכם הזה? כי נראה שקורה כל מה שנתניהו הזהיר מפניו ואמר שיש לטפל בו. כולל בלי פתרון לאיום הגרעין ובלי נצחון - לא מוחלט, כלשהו - בעניין. אשמח לתשובה רצינית* למה זה טוב לנו *לא, תשובות מתלהמות וקללות לא נחשבות רציניות
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Chen Liberman
Chen Liberman@Liberwomen·
יש סיפורים שקשה להאמין להם כי הם לא דומים לשום דבר שהכרת. יש סיפורים שקשה להאמין להם כי אין הוכחות. ויש סיפורים שאת פשוט לא רוצה להאמין שיכולים באמת לקרות. העדויות על פגיעות טקסיות הן כל אלה ועוד. כמעט כל עיתונאי/ת שנחשפו אליהן היו צריכים לעבור תהליך כדי להסיר את ההתנגדויות המובנות. חלקם עצרו באמצע, וחלקם המשיכו עם זה עד הסוף. הסרט של @roni_singer כבר לא משאיר לנו מקום לספק. מחר, ״זמן אמת״, מיד אחרי המהדורה בכאן 11
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Guy Laron
Guy Laron@guy_laron·
@aviadho היעד הראשוני היה שאפתני יותר: דלסי רודריגז איראני ושליטה אמריקאית מוחלטת על הנפט של איראן תחת משטר חסות כנוע. ואז הדברים השתבשו וטראמפ היה צריך לאלתר. בהסדר הנוכחי, הנפט יישאר בשליטת האייטולות אבל הגישה שלהם ל-25 ביליון $ נכסים מוקפאים תהיה תלויה בהתנהגות טובה - במצר ובכלל.
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Aviad Houminer-Rosenblum
@guy_laron אבל להסיר את הסנקציות על איראן הוא יכל לעשות גם בלי כל המלחמה, לא?
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Guy Laron
Guy Laron@guy_laron·
מתוך: דברים שכתבתי בוואצאפ
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Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
Gulf States Tell Ships Not to Use Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Route Five Middle Eastern countries have formally rejected Iran’s establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to control transit through the Strait of Hormuz. In a letter to a global shipping watchdog, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said commercial and merchant vessels shouldn’t engage with the PGSA or cross the waterway using a route designated by Iran. The letter was issued earlier this week and distributed by the International Maritime Organization. “Iran’s purported route should be seen for what it is, an attempt to control traffic through the Strait by forcing vessels to use a route within its territorial waters, which can be exploited for monetary gain through the imposition of toll fees,” the letter said. “Any understanding or recognition of Iran’s proposed route and PGSA as an alternative would set a dangerous precedent.” (Bloomberg)
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Afshin Ismaeli
Afshin Ismaeli@Afshin_Ismaeli·
Videos from Iranshahr and other cities across Sistan & Baluchistan show long queues of cars as people wait in extreme heat just to refuel. Residents say the reduced fuel quotas no longer cover even basic daily travel. Meanwhile, gasoline prices on the black market in parts of the province have skyrocketed to 100k Toman (75 cent) per liter, adding even more pressure on people already struggling with poverty and vast distances between cities.
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Nick Ashdown
Nick Ashdown@Nick_Ashdown·
Another dramatic escalation following the imprisonment of Turkey's top opposition politician Ekrem İmamoğlu. Turkey has nearly completed its transition from illiberal democracy to competitive authoritarianism to consolidated autocracy, or in everyday parlance, a dictatorship.
Reuters@Reuters

A Turkish court effectively ousted the main opposition leader, Ozgur Ozel, annulling the 2023 party congress that elected him chairman. The case was seen as a test of Turkey's shaky balance between democracy and autocracy reut.rs/4nIp7qp

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