Alex Carter

@PredMTrader It happened again 😳

A midnight Opus 5 Arena debut knocked off Opus 4.6 with just 10 hours left

@PredMTrader @KujiTrades It's uncharacteristic for them to update late on Sunday. Most of their updates happen between Tuesday and Friday. Pretty cool though, as it's the first leaderboard shakeup in a long time.

@KujiTrades No I was asleep, just crazy to wake up to. Very unusual for a midnight debut like this

@DataBasedBets Thanks for sharing. It's one of many reasons why knowledge of the sport itself is important and bonding risk is generally too high regardless of the event.

MULTI-MILLION DOLLAR RINSE: Full single-post summary for people with normal sleep schedules of the most insane rinsing of bond bots I've seen firsthand, in which PM bonders appear to have lost 7 figures🤯 Scene: Last MLB game of the night (Giants vs Angels) bottom of the 10th inning tied 6-6. The time is ~1:15am EDT - With the bases loaded, Devers hits what is normally a ground rule double. The initial final score shown is an 8-6 Giants win (due to an official MLB scorer error). Video below in thread - Over 13.5 runs, Giants -1.5, and Giants team total o7.5 runs bond to 99c thanks to bots - MLB rules state that a walk off ground rule double cannot score multiple runs and in this scenario counts as a single instead of a double - People start to realize this and insane action comes in to unbond the above markets. Prices go absolutely haywire, touching 1c and 99c multiple times - Kalshi closes and settles the totals & team totals markets while at least one (if not all) of the listed source agencies (MLB / Fox Sports / ESPN) still showed the final score as 8-6. PolyUS does the same for settlement of Giants -1.5 - However, the Kalshi spread (run line) markets remained open longer. Source agencies had then changed the final score to be 7-6. Market volume on the spread balloons from under 12,000 to 5 million (!) between the start of the bottom of the 10th inning and final market settlement - Despite Kalshi settling the total as over 13.5 based on an 8-6 final score, per their CFTC rules, the spread must now settle Angels +1.5 as a win, and it does - PolyInt settles Angels +1.5 as a win as well, rinsing botters there too and appearing to make the total losses for traders assuming a 8-6 final score "multi-millions" across all exchanges - Sportsbooks all appear to have paid out incorrectly initially as well, but it seems all of them have resettled based on the 7-6 final score. CFTC certified exchanges on the other hand don't quite work the same way as sportsbooks. - I fail to make riches since my 1am brain was staring at just the totals market and didn't notice the spread market had stayed open longer until it was too late - I'm aware of some of the big winners, but am yet to hear who specifically were the big losers on this score adjustment - Kalshi volume on the two "incorrectly" settled markets: 1.1mil on o/u 13.5 runs, ~60k on o/u 7.5 Giants team total. No idea or guess on how much was traded on the PolyUS "incorrectly" settled spread market. I would not expect a refund if you had the wrong side of these markets since the settlements appear to have complied with the sites' CFTC rules, but we'll see TLDR: An official MLB score correction post-game made some grinders rich and rinsed others (mostly botters, I assume). Per the sites' CFTC rules, it appears all markets were settled correctly despite being inconsistent settlements

Based reply from Fable 5 about Opus 4.8's output.

You've got impersonators @PredMTrader. You've most certainly made it, sir.

LOL, what?? 🤣C'mon, X.

There goes my France bet. Sick.

@LeoAdberg Funny you mention it...

There should be an opening auction for each mbps after boarding

I can't stand when airplane wifi is free

@PredMTrader Same, I saw that and thought it was too risky, hah.

Kalshi has added the ability to buy with "1-click" on web, letting you skip the old "2-click" flow that required an order review. I have wanted this for a while but now that I am accustomed to 2-clicks, I'm scared to enable 1 click

@therealwjl @claudeai Hello there. Sure, I have done that.

@acarter881 @claudeai hey Alex! could you open dms? would love to chat!

I could easily spend a small fortune on Fable 5 @claudeai 🙃

We witnessed the most corrupt usage of VAR and Egypt stood strong. Hahaha #FIFA

@PredMTrader No wonder I got decent prices on Mentions: you weren't playing it. 😂

USA MORTAL MEGA ABSOLUTE GUARANTEED 🔒 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🦅🦅🦅🦅 Most people can’t even find Belgium on a map and it’s gonna stay that way

@PredMTrader 🥸

Portugal is set to play Spain at 3PM There is a 99% chance the announcers say "Ronaldo" Do you think they'll say it?

@Domahhhh 🤣

I like the stock

@goosemaxxing @Kalshi Congrats, that's huge!

Haven't been too active on here but recently hit $200k+ profit on @Kalshi! Still insane to me that this is even possible. When I first joined I assumed all markets would be priced pretty effectively. Turns out there's a lot of opportunity out there if you know where to look.

@LeoAdberg Thank you very much! 😁

@acarter881 Nice!

Hi, @LeoAdberg My first automated trade that resulted in a comeback! Haha, so amazing. Sized small, but the infrastructure works. Thanks again for the fun idea. :)

@LeoAdberg FYI: Program sold at 75% and it's a bit silly, as it buys again at 1 cent, lol. It's hard to distinguish a comeback from a game-over state.