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My $MRNA investment thesis for my own record but open to criticism.
Slides from Moderna Science Day and thoughts compiled after listening. Current position 2,000 shares and 7 long option contracts.
In a future of AI +/- Quantum Computing biotechnology space will stay robust as the regulation and safety pathways will persist and potentially speed up.
Moderna is well positioned as the technology functions similar to a printing press where the tech once it identifies proof of concept can be generalized to multiple viables products without having to create new infrastructure (clinical trial network, AI native, manufacturing, commercial) specific to each product which helps with operating expenses.
In biotechnology there is heavy initial investment cost to identify a new drug to bring to market which involves identifying, phase 1/2/3 clinical trials, and then if approved manufacturing and taking to market.
mRNA is generalizable to many use cases and so far Moderna is focused on infectious disease vaccines, cancer treatment, and rare disease with protein replacement.
The first modality is infectious disease vaccines which was COVID - and yes lots of negative baggage. This was first proof of concept that then was reinforced with RSV - approval came too late to capitalize on RSV season, Q4 2026 will peak into if gains market share. And most recently Flu - June 18, 2026 VRBPAC session on MFLUSIVA unanimous vote for w/ high likelihood of passing August 5.
The second modality is cancer therapeutics with personalized cancer vaccine paired with Keytruda. The study enrolled patients with high-risk stage III/IV melanoma after complete resection and compared PCV w/ Keytruda vs Keytruda alone
The 5-year follow-up showed durable benefit rather than a late loss of effect:
•Recurrence-free survival: 49% lower risk of recurrence or death.
•Distant metastasis-free survival: 59% lower risk of distant metastasis or death.
•Overall survival: 92.2% with the combination versus 71.3% with Keytruda alone in the 5-year ASCO update.
This is incredibly important as Moderna no longer just a one trick, one modality pony. It is also important because of vaccine hesitancy and suspicion of medicine. The number needed to treat vs harm for a respiratory virus vs stage 3/4 cancer is a very different discussion. While someone might hesitate for a flu vaccine by Moderna they most likely would be fine if had melanoma.
Moderna organizes sentinel programs that if high signal is found will then expand to others which is cost effective as well as improves return on investment on capital spent if a single vertical can branch off into multiple products.
Other cancer phases
•Non-small cell lung cancer: Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials are underway across related Moderna/Merck programs.
•Bladder cancer: Phase 2/3 development is underway in the broader multi-tumor program.
•Head and neck cancer: Earlier studies have been in Phase 1, including combination work with Keytruda.
•Colorectal cancer: Reported data came from Phase 1 cohorts in the earlier multi-arm study.
•Pancreatic cancer: Early clinical studies are still being explored, generally Phase 1/2 or exploratory rather than late-stage.
•Glioblastoma: Also appears to be in early clinical development, mainly Phase 1/2.
•Breast cancer: Mentioned in the broader personalized-vaccine literature as early-stage clinical work, not yet a flagship late-stage Moderna program.
Cancer treatment revenues are not guaranteed revenue at this point but potentially high upside which doesn’t seem to be priced in.
Other far off is protein replacement via mRNA which is the rare orphan disease studies. This would be a blockbuster if hits. Also interesting to see T cell therapy as something also being explored.
Long term could see grow into valuation similar to $NVS
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