Adjacent

We are excited to announce we have raised a pre-seed from @carterkev at Night Capital, @vaneck_us, @eightyhi and @nostroah at @ufo_holdings, @Maven11Capital and @DCGco to build an independent index business for event contracts and prediction markets. adjacent.markets

RED closed at 91.05 this week, up +0.65% while BLUE finished at 109.32, down -0.21%. In today's Silver Bulletin, @natesilver538 shared this update, "so far this cycle, Democrats’ advantage on the generic congressional ballot peaked at D +7.1. But that was on June 1. Since then, our generic ballot average has reverted slightly to D +6.1. A one-point change isn’t massive, but it’s not nothing. At this point in the 2018 cycle, the generic ballot was more than a point bluer at D +7.6."

11 new currency pair markets today by @Kalshi They already have existing markets on these and notably changed the source agency from @ICE_Markets to @PythNetwork along with broader standardization, additional clarifications, and trading prohibitions not listed in prior certifications cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…

With less than a week to go before Arizona's primaries, here is a look at the front runners. All eyes are on Arizona's 1st Congressional District, considered a toss-up with @DavidSchweikert running for governor instead of seeking re-election. Markets on @kalshi are pricing in a general election matchup between @DrAmishShah and @jayfeely

“A state cannot force a DCM to violate its obligations, and federal law does not permit a DCM to discriminate against a state’s residents,” said @ChairmanSelig

AIRPORTDELAY from @Kalshi has been filed. They already have markets listed for individual airports, this is broader in scope and would allow for any airport along with - being based on % of total flights vs. number of flights - two source agencies for settlement, primary is @FlightAware and secondary is Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) making for more robust settlement criteria cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…

It was a difficult weekend to say the least. Not only did we see a massive escalation around the Persian Gulf, but we also saw the sudden passing of a long-serving US Senator. @adjacentnews covers both stories in today’s brief. x.com/AdjacentNews/s…

After the Platner debacle in Maine this week, SEND finished the week at 99.74, down -0.44% as Democrats lose traction. SENR closed at 100.17, ticking up +0.34%. Summarized by @SmithInAmerica, "This is a disaster because every seat counts in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a narrow 53-47 majority. The electoral map is not favourable to Democrats this time but, riding anti-Trump sentiment, it’s just possible they could pull it off and become a vital check on the president’s power."

OptexMarkets (optexmarkets.com) with DCM designation this morning specifically mentioning perps in their rulebook cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…

In case you missed the @polyfactual livestream @basedlourie interviewed co-founder @0xperp x.com/polyfactual/st…

Last night @RotheraMarkets filed for FOMC Rate Decision Economic Event Contract. cftc.gov/IndustryOversi… Additionally, @PlayProphetX added three new football contracts; moneyline, point spread, total points. cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…

Yesterday was a busy day at the @CFTC with 11 total certifications; 7 by @Polymarket US (QCEX), 3 by @Kalshi (KEX) and 1 by @ForecastEx (FEX) Ranging from political impeachment to court case outcomes. cftc.gov/IndustryOversi…

We apply screens for stale or illiquid contracts, smooth composites with a 1hr. SMA, and redistribute weight away from any category that temporarily lacks enough eligible markets Our full methodology can be found here adjacent.markets/static/red/met…

RED and BLUE are composite indices made up of 5 office level sub-indices. Individual markets are weighted on trading volume, time to resolution, and for state and local races, relative population, then blended into a normalized weight.

Event indices turn highly expressive individual markets into broad based instruments. Unlike prediction markets that are on a 0-1 scale, our RED/BLUE indices are centered around 100. Values above 100 signal a lean toward one side, values below 100 signal a lean the other way.

The SEC is seeking comment on "novel ETFs" which could include funds bundling prediction market event contracts. Gaming America spoke with the founders of Adjacent Markets, a data business anticipating the emergence of these products and providing benchmark indices for them.