adam

12/ Declaring a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sounds escalatory, but it reinforces Iran’s core strategy: -Raise global economic costs -Create uncertainty in shipping -Internationalize the conflict -Create political pressure on US

Australia is facing a very serious and likely long lasting fuel crisis as a result of #Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz. Now consider the scenario of a future war in the Indo Pacific region, perhaps as a result of a #Taiwan straits crisis, where #China deliberately targets our oil and natural gas supply through the archipelago to our north, specifically to coerce Australia into not supporting the United States or it’s allies in defending the liberal democracy of #Taiwan. This scenario could also see direct attacks on our ports and other infrastructure in the north of Australia to starve us of essential fuel supplies. Rather than a distant war, it would see daily attacks directly on Australia itself. Such a scenario is likely if China decides to use military force to impose unification on Taiwan, against the wishes of the Taiwanese people. This could happen within this decade or early in the next. With this future scenario in mind, the key lesson for government emerging from the #IranWar‌ of 2026 is that Australia cannot be resilient so long as it is so dependent on distant energy supplies, and is not able to defend vital maritime trade routes, choke points and narrows through which our essential trade flows. Bottom line: we need greater self sufficiency in energy and fuel by increasing sovereign fuel reserves to the IEA minimum of 90 days and we need to build additional onshore refineries. We need to harden our critical infrastructure associated with energy and fuel. And we need to have a means to defend this infrastructure including with investment into Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD) systems for the north. Oh, and we need a larger and more powerful ADF than is currently planned and budgeted for by government in the 2024 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program. We need to be able to project greater power and sustain larger forward presence, rather than waiting for the adversary to gain the initiative in a crisis, as we sit behind our northern approaches in the ‘Sea-Air Gap’. The ‘strategic moat’ is no longer a barrier to attack. That demands government significantly increase defence spending to a floor of 3.5% and 1.5% for national security and do so NOW - not in ten years time.

@Dr_M_Davis What is your guess,what is coming?

Phase II of the #IranWar‌ is coming

@Dr_M_Davis What timeline we looking at?

The risk now is an ever widening and protracted war, that escalates, and drags the US deeper into a never-ending quagmire in the Middle East. Meanwhile, China, and Russia, prepare their own plans for the use of force, to move on Taiwan, and the Baltic states respectively. The US is distracted, and allies are left exposed.

@Dr_M_Davis How does he know it this war would be going longer than a few weeks?USA have given him secret information?

Key message tonight by Albo is the phrase ‘The months ahead may not be easy’ Implying that there’s a recognition that this war will go much longer than ‘a few weeks’ and the after effects will be long lasting. #IranWar‌ #auspol

@sentdefender I thought there navy was already destroyed

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has released a video showing a series of strikes on Iranian naval vessels.

@Dr_M_Davis Australia too busy spending all its money on solar energy which is made in china for then for china to use that money to build there military( how stupid is that)

@AlboMP Not fooling anyone everyone going backwards under your leadership

Our top priority is helping Australians with the cost of living.

4/ There are at least 3 other explanations for low launch rates that don't require degradation: -Iran is conserving for a mass saturation strike -Iran is repositioning assets -Iran is conserving assets. It just needs to shoot enough drones to remain a persistent threat.

Iran laying mines in Hormuz creates a dangerous dilemma. To clear them, the US needs slow, lightly-armed minesweepers in a narrow, predictable corridor. Iran has shore-based missiles, Shaheds, and fast attack boats waiting. Call it a potential Minebush, same logic as a SAMbush.

@Dr_M_Davis Are stupid government is spending all our money on renewable energy instead.

The #IranWar has two key 'capability lessons' for Australia. 1) The urgent need for deeper magazine depth for guided weapons, right across the board. 2) The even more urgent need for credible integrated air and missile defence (IAMD) and counter-drone capabilities. Neither requirement is being adequately addressed under current defence spending levels. That implies a third urgent requirement - the need to boost defence spending significantly - NOW - not in a decade's time. If we want #AUKUS to succeed, and we want to avoid hollowing out the ADF in the process, we need to significantly raise defence spending sooner - not later. Government should aim to get to 3.5% GDP on defence and 1.5% on national security as soon as possible. Not a relaxed drift up from 2.05% now to 2.33% by 2033. But any increase in defence spending must be 'smart and targeted' - it must focus on delivering urgent capability requirements for immediate and near term contingencies within this decade, including filling glaring capability gaps such as those identified above; it must address boosting our readiness and preparedness for major power protracted war in our region within this decade; it must strengthen the resilience of Australia to the sorts of military threats that #China could direct against us across all five domains in such a major power protracted war; and it must address ADF combat sustainability to ensure we can continue to fight in a major power protracted high intensity war, week after week, month after month.

@Dr_M_Davis I give it a year until ww3 takes off as if you believe in cycles of war it’s due!

The brutal truth is that if, when this war ends, be it in weeks or months, the Iranian regime is still in power, that will be a catastrophic defeat for the Trump Administration, and in turn, send devastating signals of US weakness to #China and #Russia. The US must see this war end with: 1) the Iranian regime removed from power 2) Iran's ability to seek nuclear weapons ended 3) Iran's missile and drone capability neutralised 4) Middle Eastern oil secure and world markets stabilised. The problem I'm seeing now is that none of these objectives look like being achieved, and the risk of a wider war is growing. And this war - if it ends badly for the US - will sow the seeds for much larger wars, as Russia eyes #NATO's eastern frontier, and #China sees an opportunity to impose unification on #Taiwan, against the wishes of the Taiwanese people.

@SkyNewsAust Try a welcome to country then maybe they don’t want a pay increase.You know what is most important to everyone.LOL

The Rail, Tram and Bus Union has doubled down on its plans to strike over New Year's, branding NSW Premier Chris Minns "not worthy of the office" for attempting to prevent disruptive industrial action without striking a new pay deal with workers. skynews.com.au/australia-news…

@sentdefender Within 48-72 hours after that 48-72 hours

A U.S. Defense Official has now Confirmed reports earlier by Lebanese Media that Military Attachés from several Arab Countries met today at the Pentagon, in order to discuss the ongoing Situation in the Middle East; but the Official did not state if the Attachés were indeed told an Iranian Attack against Israel was Imminent, and should be expected within the next 48-72 Hours.

@sentdefender 6:00pm where?

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah will give a Virtual Speech today at 6:00pm.

@Fitosifitness @OzraeliAvi 😅

@OzraeliAvi Seems like a massive global campaign , Germany, France, Tel-Aviv, Sydney, Is this the hamas response for Hania ? Lashing out at the whole world ?

🚨 A major emergency operation is underway at Engadine in Sydney’s south after multiple people, including a police officer, were stabbed

@sentdefender Been told this 10 times already

Al-Arabiya is reporting that Senior U.S. Officials according to the latest Intelligence Assessment, still believe that Iran and Hezbollah will conduct a Retaliatory Strike against Israel, with the Iranians able to launch an Attack within 12-24 Hours of a decision in being made; however it is still unclear if the Retaliation will be Coordinated between Iran and Hezbollah, or if they will each launch their own Operation. The Buildup of U.S. Military Assets in the Region is expected to continue for the Foreseeable Future, with an Official claiming that the Redeployment of Forces depends on a Ceasefire in Gaza; but that if the Iranians cross certain Red Lines in their Retaliatory Attack on Israel, “Things could quickly go South, and we would have the ability to send an Aircraft Carrier into the Persian Gulf.”

@FDD @JoeTruzman @JSchanzer /to

If reports are accurate, we could soon see a significant escalation of the war in the Middle East. Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, is likely to kick things off. FDD's @JSchanzer highlights in 90 seconds how we got here and what to watch 👇

@sentdefender The regime are too busy enjoying the olympics!

And another Night passes without an Iranian Attack against Israel.

@jonbernardk So true cause no one really cares.

How Guys Watch NRL vs WNRL #stateoforigin #nsw #qld #rugbyleague #rugby