
Afaf
33 posts



I just shared my entire Portfolio on Substack: Will be doing weekly updates on my positions here If you are interested you can view the article below: open.substack.com/pub/twtrades/p…

The 2nd biggest IPO in history is happening under your nose and it has created a unique buying opportunity in memory stocks. SK Hynix is listing its ADR on the Nasdaq and offering shares to institutional investors. What many have missed is the giga size of $26bn, which would have made it the 2nd largest IPO of all time, after SpaceX. As we saw, markets traded down into the SpaceX IPO. This is mechanical, as funds buying into the offering need to sell other shares to make room. What is unique about the SK Hynix ADR is that the funding sources are narrow and obvious: Korea-listed SK Hynix as well as Micron, Sandisk, Kioxia, and other similar memory names. The greatest pressure would be on Korea-listed SK Hynix, and my work suggests it could have been up to 20-25% of ADV per day since the offering was announced. Note that foreigners net sold Korean shares for 13 days in a row since the offering was announced, which helps confirm these flows. My sharp friends and I have been searching for the last week to explain the extreme sell-off in memory stocks, as while it felt natural for there to be a cleansing of froth amidst the rolling bull market in AI stocks we’ve seen since last year, it also felt unusually aggressive. This means it is quite possible $15-20bn of memory stocks have been sold into a narrow exit door, which explains their stunning declines, but also setting up the deck for reversion once these flows cease. You can’t forget that memory is the most important capex ingredient for AI, and everything points towards greater memory demand as LLM can more used, with bigger models and longer context windows. As the offering was over 7x oversubscribed, which is surprising for such a large secondary offering, it is probable that funds oversold and are now underexposed and will have to buy back once allocations are known during the trading day Thursday (likely in the afternoon). Of course, these flows lined up with exogenous factors that exacerbated the sell-off: frothy and overextended positioning, fears around memory efficiency gains, glimmers of the war restarting, Warsh coming in and being subtly hawkish. All of this came after SpaceX and the end of Q2 rebalance sucked out a lot of flows, which had made the market more fragile. After the stunningly good MU print, I was confused at how poorly it was trading, but now in hindsight it makes sense that is when the institutional VWAPs began. It is logical they would take advantage of the liquidity and demand created post-print to begin exiting in advance of the share offering, and as the negative factors accumulated, they got more aggressive on the offer to try to beat each other out. The offering is more than 7x oversubscribed: $26bn x 7 = $182bn. This does not mean that $182bn of memory stocks were sold, but there is some relationship between the amount that funds submit for, and the room they need to create. Especially for a secondary offering where it would be more normal to get better allocations versus a hot IPO where getting close to nothing is to be expected. The greatest amount of pressure would have been on SK Hynix (given the ADR will likely trade at a premium), which appears to have then created downwards momentum in Korea, which has been very leveraged, and already seeing other negative factors such as margin increases for retail trading accounts, and rumors of market negative government actions such as unrealized capital gains taxes (which I view as unlikely). If $15-20bn in the stocks were sold, that is a huge amount of flows to be hitting a few stocks, even if they are large in market cap. As I have explored in a past post about the right tail QQQ leaps, in the current market paradigm, even if market caps are large, free floats are deceptively small as passive flows have crowded them out. On the efficiency gains, I don’t have any particular insight into the claims although it is very possible they are true. The reality is that efficiency gains around memory are being constantly made. This is not a binary where any efficiency gains mean the end of the trade, rather you can view it as the way that extremely undersupplied buyers of memory are coping with a difficult situation. So even with constant efficiency gains, the situation remains undersupplied, and has a high probability of staying undersupplied. If you look at the memory supply/demand model created by my brilliant friend @AlexCorrino, who has gone deep on these technical nuances, there are good odds the supply deficit will widen much further over the coming years, despite assumptions of significant efficiency gains. Thus it became an excuse to sell, as memory was already acting very badly due to the pre-ADR mechanical flows, and then when the rumors hit, it created a setup where everyone felt like the efficiency gains were a big deal because the stocks had been acting so bad, and then sellers with different motivations were competing aggressively on the way out. It was a perfect storm, and it was a perfect storm that you are now poised to benefit from. Generally, these mechanical flows wash out stocks and set them up for reversion, because the baby was thrown out with the bathwater. In this case it is likely there was overselling so those funds will have to buy shares back. And many other holders have sold, and knowing this thesis will give them the confidence to buy it back. It is also probable that some funds that were aware of these flows shorted or sold memory stocks as a trade into that, and will have to buy them back as well. It’s a good setup, and while I can't say that prices will immediately make new highs now, it feels like a strong and defensible entry point into one of the most important trades of the year, an opportunity that does not come around often. Build medium-to-long term positions and be patient, I suspect it will be rewarding. Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice, it is not personalized to you, and it does not account for your objectives, risk tolerance, or situation. Nothing here is a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any security, private investment, or related asset, and nothing creates an advisory, fiduciary, or client relationship. The author holds positions in some of the companies discussed here. Positions can change at any time without notice, and there is no obligation to disclose, update, or correct them. The author is not paid by, and has no affiliate or sponsorship relationship with, any company mentioned. Assume a real, built-in conflict of interest, assume the content may be self-serving, and read it that way. Do your own work, check the primary sources, and consult your own licensed financial, legal, and tax professionals before you act on anything. Any decision you make is yours alone and made at your own risk.







This post will go over exactly how I'm positioning myself in today's market. From my reasoning behind why I think certain sectors will run, to the stocks I'm holding. Here's my market outlook: There are a few niches worth investing in here. I think we can group them in 5 sectors: 1) Companies that enable AI growth (called AI enablers) 2) Companies that grow when AI grows (called AI beneficiaries) 3) Crypto (and companies that do well when $BTC and other cryptocurrencies perform well, called "betas") 4) Robotics (not just humanoid robots, I mean everything robotics) 5) Power/Energy (companies that will fuel the function of AI enablers) Here are a few reasons, and how I'm playing this: Firstly, we are in an energy world. We need energy. It is the new gold, as it powers everything. We got the U.S. government spending money on AI growth, and businesses with 0 clue how it works wanting to get in. I'm not going to say this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, but it's close to it lol. So it makes sense to bet on the companies producing this energy. Think: $SOLS, $OKLO, $SMR, $CEG, $VST, and $QS are a few. My top 3: $SOLS, $OKLO, and $SMR I have further theses for why I like these specifically, but you can just search them up on my profile though. Now, as we said, this is the base later: energy/power stocks. As we work our way up, we're getting closer and closer to "the source" = where the money is rotating to first. The next layer is "AI enablers," think data centers, photonics, semiconductor equipment, etc.. These should all continue to go up as business + government spending increases (seems like a clear trend, and nobody wants to be left behind). So I'm buying some names here: $OPTX, $ASYS, $SHMD $BRUN, $AAOI, $DGXX, $IREN, $NBIS, $MU and $CRWV. Again, my top 3 here are $OPTX, $ASYS, and $SHMD. You can read my reasoning by just searching these tickers up on my profile lol. Next, we got the "AI beneficiaries" or the stocks that will go up as AI continues to grow on its metrics. Right now, investors think AI will take over these businesses, but they don't realize AI is actually aiding them instead. If we look at the earnings of all of these companies it is increasing like wild, yet the price is down. Margins are also much better, but investors don't care, YET. So I'm buying in here. Some names: $ZETA, $RDDT, $NOW, $TEAM, to name a few. There are more, but that's a good list. Ok, now time for Robotics. We all know Robotics will be a world changing industry in the future. Legit. From cleaning, cooking, to humanoid robots. It's definitely worth having some $ in this sector. Here are my favorite ones: $OUST, $AMBA, $VPG, and even $TSLA. Yes, Tesla. And lastly, we got Crypto. Everyone is screaming $BTC to 40k, $ZEC is now worthless, $SOL is cooked. But I don't believe it. Every cycle there is some sort of FUD, and every cycle, we come out higher. Things seem to be bottoming out here. Nobody is buying in, and chart seems bottomed on the HTF. So, I'm positioning myself in a few of these for crypto exposure (I'm fine with being a bit early, since these are long-term): Think $COIN, $HOOD, $CYPH, $ZEC, $BTC, etc.. Of course, we can get some stocks in the middle of these: $CLSK, $MARA, $HUT, $HIVE (all which I think will be good). And some more undervalued companies: $NIO, $RIVN, $LYFT for the long-term. But this is just my 2c on where I'm investing in next. Any sectors I should look at, in which you guys are investing in here? What are your guys thoughts?


People are going to hate me for this: But now is not the time to buy $NBIS. I do think it's worth selling here. Let me explain why: 1) $NBIS operates in the AI data center / GPU cloud hosting layer ofc. Basically, selling compute capacity. This segment is becoming increasingly crowded and competitive: - Hyperscalers ($GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, etc.) are aggressively building their own internal capacity at massive scale. - Multiple specialized neoclouds and traditional providers are chasing the same constrained resources (power, land, GPUs, and interconnection). - As capacity comes online across the industry, utilization rates and pricing power can compress for pure hosting plays. 2) $NBIS has outlined multi-GW data center buildout plans. This creates elevated binary risks: - Power procurement and grid interconnection delays (a major industry bottleneck). - Construction and permitting timelines. - Actual customer utilization ramp after facilities come online. - High ongoing capex intensity to stay competitive. 3) $NBIS has geopolitical risk (origin overhang): - As a carve out from Yandex, $NBIS carries residual geopolitical perception risk (Russian origins, sanctions history), which can affect trust and long-term contracts with Western hyperscalers: Even as it focuses on US/Europe assets. 4) $NBIS valuation seems pretty high here: - In Q1 2026 earnings were decent. Revenue $399M (strong beat, massive YoY growth) and narrower EPS loss than expected. But it's still unprofitable. - They have crazy 2026 guidance ($3B–$3.4B+ revenue/ARR range discussed) which seems pretty aggressive and requires close to flawless execution on new capacity imo. - Insane Trailing Multiples: TTM P/S: 80x, EV/Revenue (TTM): 77x, Trailing P/E: 102–108x (on $2.60–2.92 EPS). Even high-growth AI names rarely sustain 50x+ trailing sales for long without massive profitability or clear path to it. - Still Losing Money on a Normalized/Operating Basis: Operating income TTM: –$619M (op margin deeply negative), EBITDA TTM: –$38.6M, normalized net income is negative; the big positive GAAP net income ($817M TTM / $621M in Q1) is also heavily boosted by unusual/one-time items (likely spin-off gains, investments, or fair value adjustments from the Yandex restructuring). - Forward P/S on Guided Revenue Is Still Premium (22x). At $71B mkt cap and $3.2B midpoint FY2026 guidance -> 22x forward sales. This is pretty crazy. 5) $NBIS technical analysis wise looks massively overbought): - We seem to be hitting the top of the 5 wave (out of the 1-2-3-4-5) on the HTF. On the LTF, we also seem to be hitting the wave 5, adding confluence to this resistance area. - We ran through the 1.618 level and 2.618 level showing a high sign of aggressive buying. Now we're at the 3.618 level, which means very aggressive buying has just occured. This is why, overall, I'm bearish $NBIS. "What are some other names worth buying then, and what should be my game plan?" I gotchu. $OPTX, $ASYS, and $SHMD are 3 great stocks. It's worth buying these right now imo. It's just not worth the risk holding $NBIS here, compared to them. Now, I don't fully dislike $NBIS (for a couple reasons), so here's how I'm going to play this out though: I'm going to sell my shares here (that I bought at 90). If $NBIS goes to 310, then uses the 3.618 level as support, then I will look to get in again, because that means we're going fully parabolic. It would mean losing a 5% move to the upside, on the potential of a large 20% move downward. That's why I'm doing this. Hope this makes sense on what I'm doing, and why. Of course, there are counter takes to these arguments (I'm not denying that). But, it's all about if those counterarguments make more sense. Right now, it seems we are very overbought, with a very high valuation. If we continue to run, and this "bubble" continues to grow, I'd happily join that (after losing out on a 5% run lol). If you enjoyed, pls lmk your guys' thoughts. And if you have any other sort of reasoning you guys want to come to me with, feel free to comment it below (I try to read everyone's comments, and respond ofc). Just my 2c and what I'm doing here.





Ok, I closed my $BRUN position at 35.40 (a 5% gain) and bought into $OPTX at 13.23. This is my new all-in trade idea (the second trade I'm taking). Here's why I switched: First, I will say both of the charts here ($OPTX and $BRUN look very good). So I think both will go up. I just think $OPTX will go up more here. Here's why: we got some extreme FUD on $BRUN here. It'll take some time to clear through the fog. If we take a look at BRUN/OPTX here (chart below), we did a bearish retest on the previous support (as resistance) and it looks like it wants to go lower. This means OPTX will outperform BRUN here. If we also look at OPTX/BRUN here (another chart below), we can see it looks like it has bottomed out after a retest and local higher low. Meaning OPTX should outperform BRUN here (showing more confluence). I like both of the theses for these stocks. And I'm holding both of these for my long-term portfolio, but for short-term trading, the simple % gains make a difference. Let me know your guy's thoughts, and tickers I should look at for short-term trades. @kevinxu I'm coming for you...


ALL IN TRADE (1k-100k challenge): We played this perfectly... After a 5% gain on $BRUN the first trade, and 10% gain on $OPTX the second trade, I'm going for a bigger % gain this time. Back in $BRUN. Here's what I'm seeing: BRUN/OPTX looks bottomed here (means BRUN should outperform OPTX here). $BRUN also just consolidated over ATH levels, finished its A-B-C wave lower, and is looking like it wants to go much higher. It also just survived massive FUD. TLDR; I just bought $BRUN and closed my $OPTX here. Trade receipts posted below... @kevinxu @CKCapitalxx @bmthofficial you guys might like this post. *This is a very, very small percent of my portfolio. My long-term positions are in $BRUN, $OPTX, and the other AI stocks such as $ASYS, etc., which are active.
























