알파 투자
80 posts

알파 투자
@alpha_tooja
알파에 투자하다 (국내주식, 해외주식, 코인) 시장수익률을 초과하기 위한 전략 분석



개인적으로 이더리움은 끝났다고 봅니다 1. 가치축적이 안된다 -> 이더리움 L2 잘되고 Base 잘되고 앱이 몇개가 올라가고 이더리움 가치에 거의 도움이 안됨. 빼액 소각되는데요 하는 사람들 고개를 들어 하이퍼리퀴드를 보라. 2. 윗대가리의 부재 -> 리더십이 없음. 비탈릭 맛간거는 오래됐고 애초에 자기가 팔아재끼고 기부질하는데 가격이 참 오르겠다. 심지어 최근에는 핵심연구원도 이탈하면서 분열 가속화 3. 한국인들 많이 묻음 -> 토스증권 상위 거래량 보면 항상 ETHU ETHD 있음. 이상하게 한국인들이 존나 좋아함. 좆됐다는거임.



코스피가 핫하니까 코인을 다 버리고, 여긴 더 이상 발길조차 돌리지 않을 것이라 다짐한 채 코스피로 넘어가서 수익을 낸다? <- 초보라면 극구 말리고 싶음. 우선 알지 못하는 분야로 바로 넘어가 수익을 내는 건 쉽지 않음. 마켓을 바꿔가며 유동성을 좇는 건 이미 이 판에서 어느정도 경지에 오른 사람들에게나 해당되는 이야기임. 초보자는 이 하락과 횡보의 답답한 장세에서도 꾸준히 수익을 내며 살아남는 방법을 배우는 좋은 기회라고 생각하는 게 좋음. 지금 초보 코인트레이더가 해야할 것은 짐싸서 국장에서 ㄱㅈㅇ를 외칠 게 아니라, 다음 차례가 올 코인판에서 더듬이를 곤두세우며 계속 머물러 있는 것임.

1. Trends don't reverse easily. In April, I kept the possibility of a rebound open, but after it actually occurred, I judged that a quicker additional decline early in April would have been more desirable. I viewed that rebound not as a trend reversal, but as a technical bounce within the ongoing downtrend. The more expectations built up during such a move, the larger the eventual shock would likely be. 2. My view remains unchanged. I continue to analyze the Bitcoin market based on a consistent framework and respond accordingly. I also always make my conclusions clear. If I’m wrong, I admit it outright; if not, I say so plainly. I believe this approach has helped me build trust, and I always aim to present a clear directional view. 3. The current Bitcoin price action looks similar to the pattern seen around last year’s peak.The market is creating the illusion that the trend has already reversed, encouraging bearish investors to capitulate. That precise point is exactly what the dominant players are aiming for, and this process is currently unfolding in an extremely aggressive manner. It’s a classic move designed to shake investor psychology. 4. Investors now have access to far more information than in the past, and market participants have become more sophisticated. Consequently, the market itself moves in more complex and refined ways. I remain cautious of the potential for a significant downside shock. If the price rises instead, it may mean I have overcomplicated my interpretation of the market. However, it’s worth noting that the consolidation phase around last year’s peak showed a similar structure.

It’s not merely short-term Bitcoin price volatility. Rather, in periods of significant trend volatility, similar patterns repeat. The market deliberately prolongs movement to stimulate crowd psychology, swinging from one extreme to the other until judgment becomes clouded. We saw this in January and at last year’s peak. The moment investors become convinced of a direction, the market moves to shatter that conviction. Post-ETF, with more information available, market manipulation has become even more sophisticated and brutal. My view remains unchanged: We are simply in the midst of one of these extreme processes.











