artem

@TicTocTick Tic, what do you think of wheat and corn? Seems like next dominoes to fall

Stock clears 125. $CF

@tleilax___ @sizov_andre What about corn? Very fertilizer intensive as well

Casual doubling of fertilizer prices in India. Got sugar & rice ?

@EconstratPB Don’t think the world can wait until late June for the US to make a decision, I think by the end of April we will begin to see ripple effects in agricultural prices from fertilizers and energy prices

Question is when? This week or in late June (my base case)? And how does that impact the oil curve and everything else? Today and T+2 months may arrive at the same conclusion but under a very different distributional path.

@airlovsky Can you provide a $corn chart?

@toiletkingcap Insane how DAL keeps holding up

i bought jetd

@sizov_andre any info on corn fund buying?

Funds’ #wheat buying spree continues. For the first time since 2022, funds have flipped net long CBOT wheat. Despite sustained buying, the market response has been muted, likely reflecting steady farmer selling into strength. If that flow changes, the balance may shift. #oatt #sizovreport

@toiletkingcap @Vmaxpax Thank you, loved your PM calls last year. One of my golden follows

@arrtem11 @Vmaxpax I think weat does the best but idk that’s why I got a broad basket

The thesis is playing out. Rotation out of wheat and into low demand feeder crops. USA is saving the corn crop though, by increasing Ethanol requirements. Forcing biofuel into an energy crisis, stable geniuses at work again. $weat $adm $gpre $ff

@toiletkingcap @Vmaxpax You expect them all to move up in a similar fashion or corn outperform?

@arrtem11 @Vmaxpax I had corn, weat, cane, and DBA calls

@panpalobar Hi Palobar, would you be able to give an update on Wheat and Corn? Oil at 110 and they have barely moved. Do you expect them to begin rising at the same time?

Delayed update I closed this position on Wednesday's close. Small profit compared to the open profit I left on the table. Soy Meal was not acting as I wanted, and given that I already have a sizeable position in wheat, there was no reason to take a loss from this one. If we get a decisive close above the recent high, I will buy again.

#SoybeanMeal $ZM_F #commodities I bought call options on soybean meal this morning. Strike price: $310 Expiration: July'26

@toiletkingcap Big PM and Corn run soon 🥂

The metals version of don’t fight the fed was don’t fight the central banks smashing down silver, but now the central banks are busy smashing down energy. I think a lot of things are aligning for a big run in PMs. Patience then load your bags and ride

@sizov_andre Andrey, only found your account recently and wanted to say thank you for your work. Question as someone outside of AG space: Wheat moved much sharper in previous conflicts. Corn has better fundamentals with oil shock here. Which do you see moving sharper in next few months?

Another explainer for non-ag folks on how #grains are linked to energy. Argentina: spike in fuel prices → more ethanol blended into gasoline → higher domestic #corn consumption → smaller grain exports. #oatt #sizovreport #commodities

@panpalobar Do you think Corn could be stronger this cycle due to its use in ethanol and being more dependent on fertilizers? Or do yoi expect sharper moves from wheat?

#Wheat #Sugar $ZW_F $SB_F We are in a short-term window of weakness that will most likely end by the end of March (wheat) and April (sugar). This is where your patience, resilience, and discipline are tested. Any sideways price action here will be a sign of strength.

@FusionptCapital Yes, I generally agree. Corn is the most fertilizer-intensive crop, so higher input costs could push farmers toward soybeans, potentially worsening any corn shortage. At the same time, demand for E15 is rising given current oil prices, and corn is a key input. Just my thoughts

@arrtem11 I'd just say my knee jerk is wheat maybe bc 2011 QE 2 Arab spring, Ukraine etc. But I am sure there's more to it on ground level wrt to input costs and so on. From what I recall wheat tends to impact globe faster too maybe

This would be funnier than the oil trade tbh

@FusionptCapital Thank you, only found your account recently but one of the handful in this space worth following.

@arrtem11 I honestly don't know the fundamentals details last time wheat ran and the chart looked consolidated on the weekly I guess comms were pretty long on both lows. Eyes closed if you were to say the space ran for a year that double bottom in corn wouldn't surprise me as stronger

@FusionptCapital Corn should be more sensitive to a fertilizer shortage, what do you think vs Wheat?

@sweetasiandude Looks like $RIG is breaking out, on to $16 this year?

$RIG the algo always has to shake the longs out one last time by creating the two relative equal lows to lure in the double bottom crowd before running their stops.

$RIG - a yearly closing above 16.65 is wheels up. Bottomed at an important 17.2 years from it's high. 2026 is also a direction change and panic cycle. $64.29 is my initial target. Solar and windfarms aren't going to cut it. The world needs oil.

@valuations_ Thoughts on earnings next week?

@mikeharrisNY $nke earnings next week could finally be a decent catalyst

$DJI long-short provided small convexity last week & helped limit ensemble losses well below 1%. Short $SHW contributed the most. $NKE was the largest long loss. BTW, smoothed features (right) worked well (no short $CVX) but we didn't use them.

@mikeharrisNY It kept pushing for a while, what are your thoughts on $pltr now? Seems like a classic h&s neckline retest, could be time before the waterfall

$PLTR closed 130% above its 200-sma. $TSLA closed 82.3% above its 200-sma. Imagine the pain if a correction starts. But "they" say it won't start. 😂