This is from NYT’s latest. Ukrainian leadership is in the stage of bargaining, but very belatedly and at the worst possible stage in the conflict. But it’s not getting better, so there are no alternatives. Said that, security guarantees is the most unpromising area of the bargain. NATO membership pledge is the root cause of this conflict, so hopes that Putin will end war on the conditions of delayed NATO membership or Israel-styled partnership with the US & EU are next to nil. What is being peddled as a means of protecting Ukraine is killing it - this is Putin’s main message. He will agree to multilateral guarantees, involving his BRICS friends and EU, but on conditions of a small army and US/NATO intel operations and the rest of what he calls “NATO infrastructure” kicked out. He will also insist on Russian language and religious rights as well as a clampdown on the far right - hard to imagine him being flexible on that. Said that, organisations like Azov movement could be feasibly repurposed as pro-Russian - in the manner of Kadyrovtsy. It all depends on who these mafias will choose to serve in post-war period. Territory and Russian compensations (from the frozen assets), on the other hand, is where Ukraine might be able to wage a modestly successful bargain. EU membership may also still be on the table - at least it was in Istanbul. This is attainable if Ukraine begins to care about its own future, not about the future of foreign political classes and war industry lobbyists invested in this conflict.
