Avni Raja

Mumbai this morning! Been a while since I’ve seen such a clear view!

i'm calling BS on this one... > my guess is that the real reason for discouraging retail participation in f&o is to mitigate an attack vector on our $ stash. perhaps the govt knows that a large % of the f&o profit is being taken out of the country by foreign shops. > if it were really about protecting the 'unsophisticated retail trader', then they would not allow the system to push margin trading down everyone's throat.. that too at ~10% CoC.. > i think they know that they can't stop speculation.. only divert it towards avenues that are more acceptable.. so perhaps the following argument : retail MTF punting in indian stocks at least allows for the structural formation of risk capital and prevents an attack on our $ reserves.

Gold and Silver Update : 21 Jan 2026 > for the first time in the last 2 years MCX prices are not moving in tandem with London or Comex... this is after taking into account the USDINR movement. honestly, it feels slightly weird... like driving in the dark 😅 > mcx silver is at a premium of 12.75% 😇.. as mentioned earlier, some of this is probably due to customs duty expectations but surely some of it is linked to asia decoupling from the LBMA/Comex cartel... what's impossible to say is how much of the premium is due to either one of them. > mcx gold premium is almost 4% as we speak. > USDINR hit an intraday high of 91.7 today! i'm expecting the RBI to intervene anytime now.. such large currency moves have several crucial second order effects that need to be contained. > imo, mcx gold and silver are NOT TRADABLE at the moment. the regular order of price action is broken. > it's like the market is trying to find a new equilibrium level... and it's doing this in a noisy fashion... so one can't look at London or Comex or Shanghai to get clues.. staring at the USDINR price action is not helping either.. this customs duty FUD is adding to the noise... the bullion dealer quotes are also not in line.. > my best guess is that market will find some stability only post the budget.. so 2nd or 3rd Feb onwards.. unless of course the situation in japan or the middle east implodes meanwhile.. > readers of these updates would be aware, that such a situation was not 'unforeseen'.. since late 2024 it sort of became obvious that neither London nor new york had enough silver to meet the physical demand.. the only way the shorts could stay alive was by suppressing the price down even further which in turn meant shipping metal out of the country at even lower prices! the death spiral!! but boy.... it feels weird to see this in action 😇 > my LBMA source indicates that european banks are now on the Gold bid... lol... this one was unexpected tbh.. > naturally all eyes are on the miners now... they've got a lot of catching up to do.. > the other thing on my mind is : TACO... trump has this habit of setting up bait... when he does realise his actions are causing security prices to plummet, he often takes a U-turn based on market feedback. (this is not so bad imo). so, the tricky part will be : how does one handle the drawdown in gold and silver if and when trump does deliver some descalatory headline stuff? cause the structural demand for gold and silver this cycle runs deep and is unlikely to be dented by one headline move... so ceteris paribus, it will probably still be a BTFD moment but it would feel scary as usual cause a lot of momentum longs will be hitting the bids for exit. summary : [1] i'm probably going to take a break from trading gold and silver till the first week of feb... that old trading adage.. there's a time to go long, there's a time to go short and there's a time to go fishing... lol [2] i'll probably continue to hold my core position in both and leave them untouched... imo, core positions are those in which one accepts a certain amount volatility as a part of the process. mentally one does this by remaining anchored to cost prices which are hopefully much lower... the proverbial 'large profit cushion'.. it's stupid i know.. but it works... [3] someone asked about shorting silver in the comments.. my take : honestly, i miss shorting... it's what gives me confidence to be an all weather trader.. you see, it's not hard to find good entry points for shorts.. these are points of exhaustion in the buying.. what's annoying is having to constantly cover them on an intraday basis cause the bids keep reappearing with strength at lower prices.

Silver Update : 19 Jan 2026 > first up, the MCX premium has gone through the roof today. we're 6% above the comex price (without customs duty). probably the highest i've seen it in a while. > at 310,000/kg for the SilverMar Futures contract, we're basically at $100/ounce. > now let's get to the interesting bit... in 2024 when our dearest nirmala ji decided to cut BCD during the budget, many traders who were long like me faced a rapid drawdown in the next couple of hours. > however what we saw later, was that the MCX premiums were gradually declining relative to the comex price well ahead of the union budget... > so obviously, once bitten twice shy types, this time i'm wondering if she's going to raise the BCD on gold and silver.. 🤔 > the good thing is that MCX is open till 17:00 on sunday, 1st feb 2026... so while other sensible people enjoy their afternoon siesta, we can hopefully manage our risk a little better.. > but then again, does it make sense for the govt to raise customs duty atm? there are many angles to this... pro raising BCD : we need to protect our $ stash... especially if foreigners continue selling the great indian narrative 😅 in the equity markets. pro doing nothing : helps proxy govt firms (hint hint..) import silver at a lower net value. > my take : i think if the govt really wants the metal, which is in line with what most govt's are scrambling for, then it does make sense to raise the BCD to keep the metal out of the hands of speculators AND protect the INR + $ stash with the RBI. > oh yes... while most currency desks consider the INR 100 target for the $ a given now.. just a question of when, it still makes sense to hold it where it is for as long as possible. we ain't china bro... we can't print relentlessly + for better or worse rocks are still priced in USD.. > or... if you're a phattu.. you can just cash out today and thank the market gods that MCX let you sell at $100 while the comex mfers are still playing the psyop at $94.. > finally... mcx gold too is at a 0.44% premium to comex and shanghai... disc : i don't know too much... just a guy in a closed room making decisions intuitively..

Dear @IndiGo6E ! You have cancelled the only Mumbai-Bareilly flight today, at the absolute last minute. Firstly, passengers were already checked in and at the gate, when the message of the flight cancellation came. Now, my nearly 70 year old dad-in-law has to run around trying to get his bag back and figure out another way to get back home. If you had to cancel the flight, why couldn’t you have done it earlier? And saved passengers the hassle? Secondly, your reason for cancelling was bad weather at Bareilly. But here’s the weather update. Nothing more needs to be said! This is really not done! If your systems are still not in place, then atleast have a little more regard for passengers and give sufficient notice so plan changes can be made a little more comfortably.

12.45 a.m on 7 December 2025 -Bandra Worli Sea Link, on way to airport - 6 sports cars - zipping at about 150 kmph at least - drag racing between the traffic. Terrifying!!!Why are they not being stopped? @MTPHereToHelp @MumbaiPolice @Dev_Fadnavis @CPMumbaiPolice

"I wish there was a law that banned anti–hair fall shampoos." @TrayaHealth's Saloni Anand tells @avniraja why “99% hair fall reduction” is a marketing scam, these shampoos fix breakage, not real hair fall.

@zerodha @Nithin0dha

Silver Update : Wed, 15 Oct 2025 > the physical market is not stopping. period. ahmedabad spot at 175,364 as of 13:30 on 15th. reliance jewels quoting 195,000 on the offer. local jewellers quoting 200,000 on the offer and as low as 185,000 on the bid. > i repeat do not buy spot forwards now, unless you trust the dealer a lot. some take your advance and buy silver at say 170,000 for you.. 10 days later if the price is at 200,000 they will simply keep the profits and tell you that they couldn't get it.. they are trading on your margin.. if the price goes to 160,000 , they'll deliver the silver to you.. not all are doing such shady stuff, but it certainly is happening. > LBMA at ~$52.85 and comex at 51.50 atm.. we're running backwardation that is still in the range of $ 1-1.5.. this is very entertaining for me.. it's like the establishment is tempting the physical world with the paper arbitrage in like 2 months.. meanwhile the physical market is showing them the middle finger.... therefore the spreads are getting lower everyday... there's a gamestop vibe to all of this.. > yesterday MCX increased the margins for the futures contract on gold by 1% and by 1.5% for the silver ones. we had anticipated this in the weekend note.. this could just be the beginning.. so pls keep your leverage light in times like these. > the total traded value of all the silver f&o contracts on MCX yesterday was 142,000 crores / $16.13 billion. 60% of that was prop, 40% client.. algos were about 60% of the trades. > the contract i'm on (Silver Dec Fut) traded 2,268,090 kgs yesterday!! that's a value of 36k crores or $4 billion. the open interest on this one contract alone is ~ 800,000 kgs at the moment. > as reported on 30 Sep by MCXCCL data there is ~40,000 kgs of silver in the vaults to settle. this number varies everyday.. so it can go up.. now this is used to settle all the silver contracts, not just the Dec silver (30kg) contract. i'm sure the authorities are watching this very very closely.. cause very bad things can happen if there is an extraordinary delivery demand.. and we're heading in that direction. > in such situations, my guess is that the exchanges will invoke force majeure and settle in cash. it's happened before.. so pls don't sell your current silver in the spot market for 200,000 thinking you'll take delivery from MCX in Dec.. > this morning the RBI went after the shorts in the USDINR market well before 0900 in both the spot and the NDF market. basically hunted the long $ stops. this acts like a headwind for gold/silver prices in india. we're currently at 88 to the $, down from the current ceiling of 88.8. > SLV borrowing fees rose to 15.5% as of now... nobody i spoke to thinks this is the local top.. the perception of a gamma squeeze on the rates are very very high. cause these rates have to offset the memetic virus which is making people store rocks again.. > a few dealers in zaveri bazaar have started hoarding inventory after a long time. gujju bhai's are obsessed with maxing incremental returns through asset turns, therefore in normal times hoarding goes against their DNA.. you do not get high asset turns if you begin hoarding. this is another indicator of how fast the rock collecting meme is spreading. > it's strange that in the age of bitcoin and machine learning, humans have reverted back to collecting rocks as proof of work. a 100 years from today, no one will believe this.. think about it : there is a bull market in chip build outs and in rocks... like wtf.. boomers are incapable of grasping the power of bitcoin.. i suspect we will only get rid of rocks as proof of work, when the kids of today become the leaders of tomorrow. in the future this precious market bull market will look like some bizarre flintstone episode.. human fight... human collect precious rock.. welcome to the AI+Stone Age. amen. #silverbees #silver

Silver Update : Pre Open Week : 13-17 Oct 2025 🧵 [1] this weekend silver update is slightly different. maybe speak about a few things in more detail.. also try to address a broader audience.. so get a cup of tea/coffee and let's begin

Spotted on the roads of Hyderabad, yesterday afternoon sometime, an ambulance in a hurry! Or was it an ambulance at all? Read the ticker carefully!escort services using the alarm of an ambulance, or ambulance making side money? …look into it @hydcitypolice @HYDTP @ghmc

To be clear: 1.) This is NOT an annual fee. It’s a one-time fee that applies only to the petition. 2.) Those who already hold H-1B visas and are currently outside of the country right now will NOT be charged $100,000 to re-enter. H-1B visa holders can leave and re-enter the country to the same extent as they normally would; whatever ability they have to do that is not impacted by yesterday’s proclamation. 3.) This applies only to new visas, not renewals, and not current visa holders. It will first apply in the next upcoming lottery cycle.

#GST Overhaul - Only two main slabs: 5%, 18%. SIN & luxury goods to be taxed at 40%. Individual health and life insurance exempt from GST.. The new GST structure is effective 22nd September.

Here’s what gets cheaper….#GSTCouncilMeeting

@HeyAtman Amazing and very inspiring!

About a journey close to my heart:

@TopazPlastic Most welcome! :-)

@avniraja Thank you for the update. Saved me sometime

Bandra-worli sea link - towards worli completely jammed. If you’re heading this way might make sense to avoid right now. #MumbaiTraffic

Unemployment, India's 2025 Gaming Bill and Lessons from South Korea's Experience in 2011 : 🧵 [1] to find out the probable path ahead for India, it's good to take a look at SK in 2011...