Brett Parish

@TonyLaneNV I think this guy fucked himself. Hey I’m a kid I made a mistake. Meanwhile, I’m in jail actively attacking (jumping) people acting like the armed robbery I committed is a joke and continuing to engage in ongoing criminal behavior. But sure cut some slack 😂😂😂

18 YEARS OLD… 25 YEARS IN PRISON A Texas teen just got hit with 25 years for a convenience store robbery. The judge made it clear - probation wasn’t even on the table due to his previous record while being held in jail. Said he didn’t have a real chance at success outside. His family broke down in court as the sentence was handed down. At 18… your whole life is just starting - But one decision can change everything forever. Do you think this sentence fits the crime… or is it too much? ⬇️ 🇺🇸

@Greg_Speicher Strawman argument. The opportunity cost on 80b lit on fire with metaverse was huge. There was no better investment opportunity than when meta was valued at -200b (9-10X). If Buffett has a hard time doing it I’m supposed to believe Zuckerberg can? Numbers get too big….

It's not that simple. IBM bought back $201B in shares over 25 years. Market cap went down. A simple index fund beat it. GE torched $54B on buybacks at inflated prices, then nearly went bankrupt. Sears spent $6B on buybacks instead of stores and e-commerce — stock went from $144 to zero. Buybacks only make sense if the stock is undervalued AND there's no higher-return reinvestment opportunity in the business. When an innovation gap is opening up, buybacks are just dressing up a deteriorating business with cosmetically better EPS. Zuck made an expensive call on metaverse. But he's course correcting in real time, concentrating his chips where he sees the highest payoff — that's rational capital allocation. Messy, yes, but I'd rather have a CEO aggressively reinvesting and occasionally misfiring than one using buybacks as a substitute for strategy.

One more thing on Google. Warren Buffett has been clear about two types of great businesses. The first is See's Candies. The dream. A business that grows earnings year after year with virtually no reinvestment. Returns on invested capital are almost infinite because the invested capital is so small. You take the cash out and deploy it elsewhere. Beautiful. The second is what Buffett calls a great business that can absorb large amounts of capital at attractive returns. BNSF. Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Not as elegant as See's. You have to keep putting money in. But if the returns are good and the runway is long, the total wealth created can actually exceed See's — because you can keep compounding at scale. Buffett has said the second type can be the better business. Most people miss this because they're anchored on the beauty of the asset-light model. Google was See's Candies for twenty years. A toll booth on the world's information. Near-zero marginal costs. Every additional search query was almost pure profit. Returns on capital were incalculable. Now Google is becoming BNSF. $75 billion in capex last year. $175-185 billion guided for 2026. The market sees this and worries. The beautiful asset-light model is getting heavy. But here's what I think the market is missing. Google isn't just transitioning from See's to BNSF. It's transitioning to a BNSF with a longer runway and potentially higher returns — because the demand driving the capital deployment is the Intelligence Invariance. Every person, business, institution, and government will want cheaper, more accessible, better intelligence. That demand doesn't saturate. It deepens. And unlike a railroad, where the capital buys track that serves one route, Google's capital buys vertically integrated AI infrastructure — custom TPUs, frontier models, inference optimization — that deploys across the largest distribution surfaces on earth and monetizes through the highest-margin advertising engine in history. See's couldn't absorb more capital. That was its limitation. Google can absorb $185 billion a year. And every dollar goes into a system where Google captures value at every layer — from silicon to consumer surface to ad revenue. The question isn't whether the capex is scary. The question is whether the returns are attractive and the runway is long. The Intelligence Invariance says the runway may be the longest in the history of technology investing. #google $googl

@jerkface5150 @TKopelman Not an atty and never had an advisor. I can do math.

@TKopelman @baparish Brett parish sounds like an attorney who got duped by a bad advisor

Advisors just do index funds, there’s no reason to hire one The most average advisors, sure Great advisors literally help on every part of your financial life Here’s my most recent signed client: - owns 3 businesses - makes 2.5mil a year - has 2mil in cash on the sidelines - has no tax planning strategy - has large underpayment penalties yearly - no estate plan - same basic insurances since they were a young low income earner - planning to buy land and build but no idea what they can afford, how much to put down, etc - plans to sell main business in 3 years But sure… they just need help from us on index funds We will probably talk investments for 5 minutes of the first year and 40+ hours of planning on everything else

@TKopelman But my whole point is if you had to actually present an invoice to the client and them write you a check for what you actually did would you not agree that would materially change your business? No Recurring revenue just billed work to the client that you had to collect.

It’s exactly why you don’t But that’s not the hourly rate as we have to prep for the call ahead of the time Financial planning isn’t a show up and talk. You have to know everything going on and do the background work And I have a client who just signed for this this week Our minimum fee is $18k I added just about 60 households last year at that minimum fee

@Skidd28925417 @TKopelman Bottom line you send a guy with 5m an invoice for 50k every year you’re going to get questions. You take 40 or 50 a year out of their money most will forget. And why on earth would you want to drag them into meetings to remind them. Reality 95% of the time

@TKopelman @baparish That went from ‘I’ to ‘we’ pretty quickly. Even so, 30–40 hours per client is beyond the point of diminishing returns for added client value.

@TKopelman Your time is worth $3,000/hr? Show me how many hours you’ve actually billed at this and clients have paid in the last year. If that was the case you would be crazy not to do hourly billing on everyone.

@baparish It would cost them way more for sure You get a discount to be on a yearly model then billed hourly My one meeting model for 90 minutes is $4,500

@TKopelman Point is (not saying you) often use the current % AUM to extract the maximum in fees for what often times amounts to a trivial amount of work. Otherwise, why would it not be billed hourly universally? Is it fair to charge someone more just because they have more money?

@baparish Would it though? What work is your Re doing yearly haha? I spend 30-40 hours a year planning and with each client

@KodiakBronsen @VladTheInflator Less the buybacks so maybe 70%

@VladTheInflator which means it is 87% overvalued

Apple's revenue has only grown 13.8% cumulatively over 5 fiscal years. The stock has doubled.....

@jonbrooks Or when they quit auto investing into 401ks and their kids have to take distributions out in 10 years. It’s all just inflow minus outflows This is the real reason for immigration from a markets perspective.

48M boomers+ will pass in the next 20 years Who will buy all their overpriced houses?

@texasrunnerDFW @Codie_Sanchez This might sound weird but I think this will honestly be the no. 1 use case for ai/robotics. Really the only thing that makes sense.

@Codie_Sanchez For the median boomer, there isn’t enough $ for years of elaborate medical care What will boom most for jobs in medicine is home health aides, likely new immigrants, willing to accept the lowest pay and a spare bedroom to live in At the upper end, concierge doctors

If you had to pick one industry that'll survive this...it isn't even the trades, it's medicine. Anything that lets boomers live longer and more comfortably will explode as they extend life with big bank accounts.

@cliffcornell_ One question for him? Why are you fucking around with shit coin?

X be like: A friend of mine is 28 and has the following: Roth IRA: $7,298,000 Taxable brokerage: $19,465,000 401(k): $1,238,000 Crypto: $2,652,000 What would you recommend for someone in this position?

@capturehappy @DarrigoMelanie We won’t even talk about how much Soros has given. I agree it’s a problem. It messed up, but to act like this is a republican issue is just not fact based.

The $3,300 limit is only for direct gifts to candidates. Elon's $277 million went to a super PAC for independent ads and support. That's legal under current rules and counts as free speech for anyone. Would overturning Citizens United really stop "auctions," or just let the government pick which voices get heard in politics?!?

The maximum an individual can legally donate to a candidate in an election is $3300. Elon donated $277M to Trump in 2024 because of loopholes rich people use to buy elections. If you care about election integrity — overturn Citizens United so our elections aren’t auctions.

@DarrigoMelanie God, all this money in elections is terrible. We will just conveniently omit the fact the Democrats always raise and spend more. What did they outspend Trump in the last three presidential elections 2 to 1?

@andyantiles_ Not really nuts. Taxes are going to eat up a third BEST CASE with 0 state tax liability This person living somewhere with high state taxes and paying almost 20k in rent is the insane part.

Had a conversation with a guy the other day who’s made $9m in profit and has less than $2m to his name He’s averaged $1m/yr in take home income the last bunch of years with a couple outlier $1.5-$2m years Here’s what his monthly finances look like: - $80k/mo in profit - $17k/mo rent - $10k/mo travel (with wife) - $8k/mo in shopping + food - $4k/mo in car payments - $3k/mo in country club dues - $35k/mo set aside for taxes After all expenses he’s left with ~$3k/month that he sets aside and invests into ETFs every month He lives a rich life but after almost a decade of netting 7 figures annually, he has almost nothing to show for it

@andyantiles_ If it’s easy to get into it and full of amateurs the outcome is probably not going to be good. No property manager is going to save you. Sell it and get out.

My Airbnb in west palm beach has done $60k in gross revenue and $5k in net income year to date. I am disgusted by these profit margins. If you are a proven STR property manager who knows you can increase profit dramatically, message me

@preston_holland Of course you can send a dividend back to the government when you set your own prices and you have a monopoly. I’m not trashing TVA overall it’s a great deal for their 8-9 million customers. Bottom 25% of rates nationwide. More dead weight there than you can imagine though.

Trump proposed a $500k salary cap on TVA employees… The huge issue is that TVA is actually net profitable and sends a dividend check back to the government. The ONLY 3 letter agency to do so. If you cap salaries, I imagine this to stop.

@mattvanswol “Billed” charges don’t mean anything. You obviously don’t know anything about how healthcare works

Nearly a year ago, my wife went to the hospital for stomach pain. They did a CT Scan of her abdomen and thankfully didn't find anything serious. We got a bill in the mail of $9,117.42 I spent months talking to insurance, the hospital, billing appeals... I was told the claim was still processing. I was told the claim was out of the normal service area. I was told it wasn't clear it was medically necessary. I was told the insurance wasn't valid on the date of service. Finally, we got it handled, but it took well over 6 months from the day we got the first bill to the day we finished the process and paid. We did everything right. We have insurance. We pay our insanely high premiums every single month. It's just so frustrating. This whole healthcare system is broken, from top to bottom.