BeachTime 🌴🌊🥥

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#Bitcoin has rebounded from the lower trend line of the channel on the weekly close. From here, my primary scenario remains a move toward the upper boundary of the channel, completing wave (5) of ⑤ at ~$400k.

MSTR trades near 1x its BTC NAV (~717k coins at ~$68k BTC) and moves 3x+ BTC's volatility. ATH is $474 (Nov 2024 close) vs today's ~$130, so +264% needed. Analyst consensus targets average $350-450 for 2026 (highs to $700), tied to BTC hitting $100k+. Short squeeze potential exists as it's the most-shorted big stock. Plausible if BTC rallies hard, but dilution from equity raises and unrealized losses add risk. My estimate: ~40% chance this year. Not advice—markets are unpredictable.

@BellaInves73913 @Micro2Macr0 HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

@Micro2Macr0 So so unlikely. I give it testing ATH’s this year a 1% likelihood. I made a 20X on the stock in the last run and sold last year. I’ll likely be a buyer again (at lower prices than today) later this year, but wouldn’t expect a recovery to ATH’s for a couple of years.

After finding strong support and bounce HARD! $MSTR is looking to head higher. How much? I think it at least tests it's all time high this year. Which is 311% higher than where we are right now. REMEMBER the MNAV is expanding again and this was the MOST SHORTED stock in the markets yesterday.

Do you people even realize how unbearable we will be when MSTR hits $1,000?

@CryptoMichNL Lets go My G

The most valuable chart in the markets: #Bitcoin vs. Gold. In history, bear markets last 14 months. In this case; we're in month 14. The lowest RSI on weekly, monthly, two-weekly and 3-day ever recorded. Probably nothing.

The markets are flashing a bottom signal on #Bitcoin, not a peak signal The business cycle is at its lowest point in 15 years. The valuation of #Bitcoin vs. Gold is the lowest on the RSI it has ever been. The valuation of #Ethereum vs. Silver is the lowest on the weekly and two-weekly RSI it has ever been. There are layoffs everywhere, as everyone pivots to AI to chase another bubble. That's the perfect moment to accumulate your positions and to do the exact opposite. Luckily, I've been through multiple cycles and have seen this happen before. The moment that nobody is interested in an asset, that's when you should be buying the particular asset. There are so many tailwinds coming in: - A dovish and pro-Bitcoin FED Chairman - The Clarity Act will be signed in the coming months - No more government shutdowns - QE starting to ramp up even more - Gold peaking & #Bitcoin running upwards after that, as the correlation has proven this to be. That's not a sign that the markets are going to continue running, no, we've been following the wrong framework. The markets have peaked in December '24. The markets are bottoming in Q1 '26. The bull market start is close. Credits to @TechDev_52 for the phenomenal chart.

Finished the entire Bible it’s been a 13 month word by word page by page no skimming journey. Humbled, enlightened and amazed at what I read and what I learned. I will rest and meditate on so much. I will begin it again.

The level of fear is extreme, and based on nothing. 1. Epstein did not control or invent Bitcoin. In fact, he owned no Bitcoin. His exposure was he did a 3MM investment into CoinBase and flipped 50% of it for 11MM. 2. The 4 year "cycle" is complete BS and based on a discredited model by Plan B. 3. Trump owns less than 0.1% of the world's Bitcoin and is barely interested in it. He owned 0 a year ago. 4. Quantum "might" be a threat 10yrs from now. But there are well known solutions. Zero immanent danger. 5. People saying there is "no buying interest" ignore IBIT had massive inflows in 2025, as did MSTR. 6. Stocks are at all time highs and we have a new low rates Fed Chair coming in in 3 months. Your attention to this matter is appreciated.

Our team is growing. We’re excited to announce we’ve onboarded a quant engineer from one of the top market making firms in the world. He’ll ensure our MM bot is institutional-grade and profitable for liquidity providers.

Some hopium or random thoughts. Still think this was the first bear cycle for crypto. Even though BTC made new highs. That’s why it also is “different” from a topping perspective. We just had a tonne of positive developments and a flood of capital that offset it somewhat. And it be a nascent space. We also don’t respect that typical “research and development” generally happens in a lab and test environments for a long time before it’s in public’s hands. Crypto (onchain) was priced from the first test. Id bet the next Cycle looks nothing like the last 3. I don’t want to be bearish, this cycle is done from an opportunity perspective. Time to be positive and focus on the other side of this, could always be much sooner than we think.

@stackhodler Jesse James of West Coast choppers has kids. As much as I respect his craft, he had an awful father, and his personal life is an absolute mess. I feel bad for his kids.

Strategy tracking day 480 $MSTR now ranked 236th largest US company by market cap. Fell 8 companies today. In line with Carnival Cruises and Yum foods… 26th largest publicly traded equity by volume

This has the same valuation as the largest digital credit company in the world… Risk is mispriced.

Every cycle feels different, but it never is. You make real money on paper and think it’s permanent. Then you round-trip it and swear you’re done forever. You then miss the early part of the next cycle because of PTSD. You buy back some only after it doubles “just to be safe.” You get fully loaded by the mid-cycle, the tingly feeling is back. You promise yourself this time you’ve learned a thing or two and will be smart and reasonable this time. Then the gains start and you take the bait, you get emotional, fall in love, and go searching for narratives to latch too. The hucksters are back too in full force selling you a dream, you ignore their last cycle grift, and fall for their new shiny paper. A faster path to your dream. You start regurgitating all their talking points, welcome to the club. You start adding leverage, this is easy, you’re going to be super-yacht rich. You buy garbage tokens and projects, telling yourself they figured out some money glitch. It’s a whole new paradigm. You start to project where you’re going to be just one year out at this rate and say that’s too long, let’s go harder. And then the rugs begin to get pulled. You’re quickly down 50% on a leveraged/speculative pile of poop, that you fear selling at such a “discount”. What about the dream. Paralysis becomes so great you can’t even action an exit over your better thoughts. And not before long, you’re back to the beginning. ----------------------------- I know this is only a subset of people entirely, more so in crypto, but I think we all to some level or extent, fall for the above. I do too! So not intended to throw shade on people (except the hucksters), but a reminder that a balance between risk and preservation is paramount, but more importantly when to be balanced between the two at various stages of the cycle. Knowing where we are in the cycle requires being as unemotional and agnostic to your positions as possible. Once money becomes so personal, rational judgement is lost. As for where we are now. Stocks haven’t broken down broadly, although the cracks are forming. We’re in a bull trend still, but also in that “be mindful” stage, and dips are probably not opportunities anymore. For crypto, the carnage is huge, but can get so much worse. We’re way past the get out stage, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get out to live another day. If you’re sitting on stuff with paralysis, free yourself of this burden and dump it. A worthless token isn’t cheap because it's down 60%. This does not apply to spot bitcoin, you’re not selling that 44% off highs, even expecting much deeper levels to come in 2026.

I've done lots of cool stuff in my life Enjoyed all the things But nothing matches the little moments I'm living on a daily basis with my 2 year old son Didn't even want kids in my 20s Now I know these are the days I'll be remembering on my death bed Have kids if you can

Blackrock will run $IBIT sales campaigns front running the 2028 halving. Ignore the noise, run the game theory, follow the signal.

$MSTR What if...

JPMORGAN: BITCOIN NOW MORE ATTRACTIVE THAN GOLD LONG TERM JPMorgan says Bitcoin’s long-term appeal versus gold has improved after gold’s strong outperformance and rising volatility. Despite recent crypto weakness, liquidations have been modest, though spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows. The bank notes Bitcoin is now trading well below its estimated production cost of $87,000 — historically a soft floor. JPMorgan’s key point: Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted profile versus gold has strengthened. Its volatility relative to gold has fallen to a record low, implying significant upside potential over the long term.