bbqrice

@asc89 Do you go by they/them now?

@thepunditoor @SowingAlphaSeed Lexus taking their design cues from video games

@SowingAlphaSeed Should find a way to get one of these into the US 😎

Our last car was a Tesla and I just ordered it from my phone. Currently talking to dealerships about our next car and it feels so barbaric.

@ptuomov Just as God intended.

Back in the US:

@TheStalwart This is a chart crime

On r/runningshoegeeks, 1-out-of-18 posts mention a major Chinese running shoe brand. Just last quarter it was 1/40. Li Ning is the big one

@NewmoonCap It’s an opinion piece, bruv

FT should stick to news, and not acting smart.

@LukeRDavis @ModeledBehavior It’s less about the data and more about the aesthetics of the time series charts.

@bbqrice @ModeledBehavior ElectionBettingOdds volume averages from those *as a minimum*.

Big jump

@EconBerger @wwwojtekk @ATabarrok It was @philipaklein for me x.com/philipaklein/s…

Who wrote the “from ‘I, Pencil’ to ‘1 Pencil’ “ tweet last year - was it @wwwojtekk ? Or @ATabarrok ?

@ptuomov BLK PE = 26 SPX PE = 28.5 The market seems pretty lukewarm about at least one high AUM asset manager. Huberman’s puzzle persists.

I had a long ChatGPT session on the ski lift about the valuation of asset management companies today. The metaconclusion was that “Asset management is the worst business in the world at low AUM and the best business in the world at high AUM.”

@dalibali2 The first best time to pull the trigger was 3.5 years ago. The second best time is now.

The board really did Shantanu dirty. That’s totally not how u fire a guy after 18 years

@jxmnop @karpathy Probably the median OpenAI employee?

@choffstein @ptuomov @RyanMGavin @JasonLiebel By "you" I didn't literally mean you!

@bbqrice @ptuomov @RyanMGavin @JasonLiebel Yes. But now I'm wondering how other people are talking about "volatility drag".

Hank Bessembinder‘s research has been misinterpreted here on X in countless ways. It’s good to hear him speak about it himself, because what he says makes mathematical and economic sense. A great podcast episode:

@choffstein @ptuomov @RyanMGavin @JasonLiebel Whatever you like, as long as you understand that the almost sure long run growth rate (your expression) is not the same as an expected return.

@ptuomov @bbqrice @RyanMGavin @JasonLiebel Let me offer a counter-point. If we assume your wealth follows a geometric brownian motion, as T→♾️ your wealth approaches exp(μ - σ^2/2). What else are we going to call that -σ^2/2 term? returnstacked.com/volatility-is-…

@soorajrup @__paleologo this is literally not true

@__paleologo Everyone can pick stocks, risk management is literally what matters lol

Oftentimes, I read from retail traders dismissive comments about risk manage(ment|rs). Risk management is the most useful skill you can learn when trading on your PA or managing a $3b book (and it’s learnable). And a good Chief Risk Officer is the 2nd most important and useful person in a top hedge fund. I know, it’s obvious. But in years like this, a good self-reminder.

@ptuomov Do you want to regress premia against changes in real yields, or real returns?

The bottom panel is the control variates technique regression applied to factor premia. The idea is that if you can find a stationary variable (such as 10 year inflation indexed bond yield) and its changes are correlated with the factor premium you’re trying to estimate, then you may get a statistically less noisy estimate of the mean. The first row is the sample mean factor premia. This can be compared to the intercept row of the CV panel.

Equity factors and long-term real interest rates Recently, Christopher Polk gave an interesting presentation. As a side quest, he run these regressions:

@iaindunning I prefer "Imagine that you are Leonard from Memento, and you have lost your memory. The last Leonard wrote this down for you"

How do you talk to Claude? Say, when using Claude Code, at the end of a session you asked it to write its learnings in a text file. In a new session: A: "a previous claude wrote this summary, read it" B: "you previously wrote this summary, read it"

@TheSpeculator0 Do you think homie uses IB or ToS?

Lloyd Blankfein quit being the CEO of Goldman Sachs and instead of taking some cushy board job or going into politics he sits in front a screen all day and trades his PA absolute sicko behavior

@SowingAlphaSeed There’s nothing about modern portfolio theory that requires fixed assumptions about future returns.

Modern portfolio theory works out the math on why rebalancing investments improves risk adjusted returns. But it does so mostly using fixed assumptions on the future returns of each investment. The math can be much more favorable if you have fluid beliefs about expected returns.

@FICMBondTrader Tbf we’re approaching the end of summer 27 recruiting.

I got a LinkedIn update of someone accepting a “2027 GS summer analyst role” What? It’s fucking March 2026. I remember back in the day you could just shake hands and show up a couple months before. If you don’t have parents/school in the know, you are fucked.

SCOOP with @denitsa_tsekova and @VildanaHajric: US Treasury is looking to tighten scrutiny of 351 conversions into ETFs -- which effectively look to cut tax bills by seeding ETFs Treasury is considering labeling these as a "transaction of interest," which is for deals with tax avoidance potential