Evan Hellerud

@DDFalpha I’ve been hog hunting in near Reed Oklahoma since 2012 and this is probably the second driest year I’ve seen there. Bad deal

30d Rainfall. Have’s & Have Not’s

@ISchmidtFaced @biofuelslaw Imagine that. Big oil always wins.

@bigesbaling @biofuelslaw From what I got it’s positive just not immediately positive. It’s better for the refiners as they get 2 years of UCO at 100% RINS and then 50%

The mandate for biomass-based diesel is expressed in #RINs (9.07 billion for 2026 and 9.20 billion for 2027). EPA says the requirements guarantee that "at least 5.33 and 5.75 billion gallons of BBD will be used in 2026 and 2027, respectively." #biodiesel #renewablediesel #SAF

@Cjstein33 Was just hog hunting around Altus, Mangum and Reed and lots of tough looking pastures and winter wheat. Ranchers are needing hay bad it seems.

Dad had been hearing horror stories from our customers down in Altus Oklahoma area. So he took a drive yesterday. Safe to say they won’t be needing combines this year. This is more of the worst of the worst but if it doesn’t rain it doesn’t matter.

@ISchmidtFaced That at the state mill?

Been sitting here for 2 hours, 1 of the reasons why I’m not growing wheat this year.

@JLinvilleFert Just another one of the many reasons we need more manufacturing of USA necessities in America not overseas!

The loss of Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran urea exports equates to roughly 81M acres of U.S. corn nitrogen being lost annually. - S.A./Qatar/Iran 2024 urea exports - 13.5M - U.S. corn acre average = 155 lbs/actual N - 1T urea (920 lbs/actual N) = 6 acres - 13.5M x 6 = 81M acres

@JLinvilleFert @robertpstephens I fully agree with removing def. One thing I feel will be tricky is everything diesel from 2011 basically and newer we need a full delete which is 3-5k per vehicle. Thats a huge cost if all of a sudden def is no longer available.

@robertpstephens Agreed. It is the short-term part of my personal strategy to "fix" nitrogen. Immediate - gov't payments to farms Short-term - remove DEF requirements Medium-term - low interest financing for debottleneck/increase domestic production Long-term - support new domestic production

DEF needs to be fazed out, 2 million short tons added if def production went back to straight urea. It would be a start to helping. @JLinvilleFert x.com/i/grok/share/9…

makes so much sense to put a nitrogen plant in that area. Oil fields are close instead of burning off all the natural gas could harness it and make nitrogen but that would harm the environment I’m sure so we will just keep burning it off and import from other countries where it doesn’t harm the environment. 😂

@KeatonHeller It’s ok, we’ll just take another 50% of your dividend and then buy into another overseas fert plant so we can continue selling you fertilizer for 20$-50$ a ton over everyone in the area.

The CHS fertilizer plant cancelation was an enormous lost opportunity for domestic nitrogen supply and price stability. agweek.com/news/updated-c…

@GrainsGorilla Why are we importing wheat?

BREAKING: 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 Wheat is holding here like the 20 DMA is good support. The AI scrapers and algos have NO IDEA we imported EU wheat into Tampa yesterday. Couldn’t be more bearish. Second time in a month we have imported cheaper wheat into Tampa. First was Argy and now EU. Importing wheat from our largest competitors is not bullish. Extremely bearish!!!!

@OSU_smallgrains @BradyD78 I didn’t think it was possible to hurt winter wheat.

Recent freezing temperatures across Oklahoma may have impacted wheat fields that have reached jointing or later growth stages. Here is what to watch for and how to assess potential freeze injury in the coming days. osuwheat.com/2026/03/16/fre…

@shanaka86 @Agricomp According to usda we have global glut of corn, wheat and beans and same within our own country. Record crop after record crop in America and South America.

BREAKING: The world spent fifty years and hundreds of billions of dollars building Strategic Petroleum Reserves so that no geopolitical shock could starve civilization of energy. Nobody built the equivalent for fertilizer. That is the most expensive oversight in the history of modern statecraft, and you are about to pay for it at the grocery store. The Strait of Hormuz does not merely carry 20% of global oil. UNCTAD estimates roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade passes through it. The Fertilizer Institute estimates that conflict-exposed exporters account for nearly 49% of global urea exports and nearly half of global sulfur trade. Since February 28, daily ship transits have collapsed by 97%. Here is what almost nobody understands about why this is not "just another commodity spike." It was not the missiles that closed the strait. It was the insurance. Multiple P&I clubs cancelled war-risk extensions for the Gulf after 26 months of Red Sea losses had already depleted their Solvency II capital buffers. War-risk premiums surged from 0.25% to as high as 5% of hull value per transit. A urea cargo cannot absorb that. The economics of fertilizer shipping through Hormuz became impossible before a single mine needed to detonate. The Trump administration announced a $20 billion sovereign-backed reinsurance facility with Chubb as lead underwriter. There is no confirmed public evidence that a single fertilizer vessel has used it. Insurance pays for financial loss. It does not intercept anti-ship missiles. Physical security remains the binding constraint, and the US Navy confirmed on March 12 it is "not ready" for commercial escorts. Now here is the part that should terrify every allocator on Earth. Agriculture runs on biological deadlines. Corn Belt farmers need nitrogen applied by mid-April. Indian Kharif season prep starts in May. Australian winter crop needs urea by June. These are not financial deadlines that reprice. They are photosynthetic deadlines that, once missed, produce irreversible yield loss. A diplomatic breakthrough on April 15 does not help a farmer who needed fertilizer on April 1. And the yield math is nonlinear. Wall Street models fertilizer-to-output as proportional. It is not. The response is quadratic. In developed systems that over-apply nitrogen, a 15% reduction costs 2-5% of yield. In the Global South where farmers already under-apply, the same reduction pushes crops off a biophysical cliff. Sri Lanka proved this in 2021 when a sudden fertilizer ban collapsed rice production 40% in a single season and brought down the government. The market is pricing a 45-day disruption. The insurance architecture says 120 days minimum. Even after a hypothetical ceasefire, Solvency II capital rebuild, reinsurance treaty renegotiation, and vessel re-underwriting take months. The Red Sea precedent: 26 months after Houthi attacks began, war-risk premiums never returned to pre-crisis levels. Both sides are rejecting negotiations. Trump rebuffed ceasefire mediation March 14. Iran's foreign minister on March 15: "We never asked for a ceasefire." Meanwhile: 51% of US corn areas in drought. El Nino favored by June at 62% probability. Skymet assigns 60% chance of below-normal Indian monsoon. Bangladesh has shut five of six urea factories. India formally asked China for urea on March 12. Egypt faces $28 billion in debt repayments while importing 12.7 million tonnes of wheat. WFP identifies 318 million people already at crisis-level hunger. The world stockpiled oil but forgot to stockpile the molecules that produce half its food. The clock is the position. Full analysis in the link! open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@sizov_andre @sixteenth_prez He was a soybean farmer though 😆😆😆

@sixteenth_prez Bessent sold his farm because he knew that urea was going to the moon 🙃

Urea price +20% by Tuesday? #goldenage

@JLinvilleFert There was talk of building a fert plant west of grand forks North Dakota not long ago but that got shot down right away.

For a mere $4 -$5B investment, you can help heal the nitrogen industry and the North American farmer by building a new production facility!!! Good grief. $300B for a new refinery...makes fertilizer look like chump change. foxbusiness.com/energy/trump-t…

@lockedlimit What’s killing the demand for wheat are preservatives added that make bread last months instead of days.

SRW FOB offer price for April is $271.and thats before you find freight, and pay for the fuel. lol/ i know #wheat rarely makes sense - at least in 2022 we had #1 exporter invade another... but this move in wheat is dumber than average. We are killing demand for US wheat. #oatt

@ISchmidtFaced More competition the better. All these big coops and private companies consolidating in the worst thing for us farmers for inputs and selling.

@ISchmidtFaced Maybe will get a better coop basis as well with these crush plants being built.

Did a little research on the Soy Crush Plant proposed by Epitome Energy in Grand Forks ND. Sounds like it’s happening.

@MisterCommodity Wheat has a long ways to go to become profitable especially if fertilizer wasn’t bought prior to this week. I hope these rallies continue to give us more selling opportunities.

here's something i haven't asked in a long time...... what is limit up in wheat?

Just heard a $750 urea quote. How much corn can I grow on 50 lbs of N?

@JLinvilleFert Just another reason we need to make out products in America.

Nitrogen/phosphate markets, the timing of the Strait reopening is everything. If the Strait opens quickly, production can continue and flows return. Should help slide prices quickly. However, the longer it draws out, the more likely production will be to stop for lack space.

@SoybeansRus @SecRollins Check out fertilizer prices. Wowzer

Diesel and Gas decided over night they want in on the high Inputs cost…. So much for Inputs going down @SecRollins oh well promises not kept…