Bill Cai

@xinlei_lover @r0b0t_sp1der @signulll He’s literally published papers with Turing award winners.

@billcai_ @r0b0t_sp1der @signulll Nobody working in AI is "one of the smartest people in the world". This is breathless hype. You people are worshipping these false idols just because they're headhunted for billion dollar salaries. But salary does not equal true brilliance. Learn some Nobel laureates' names.

kimi’s founder & ceo got his phd at cmu. why didn’t he stay in america?!

@r0b0t_sp1der @signulll This guy is one of the smartest people in the world without exaggeration. Worked in China with some of the smartest people in the country and they all knew this guy by name.

@signulll why was a chinese foreign national given a PhD slot at CMU instead of an American?

@HyperTechInvest More volume yes but way less margins across the board

Semis selling off because of Kimi 3 makes no sense I’m surprised we have to come back to Jevons paradox after all this time I thought we were already clear on this after DeepSeek

@splitbycomma I respect the sentiment but going against something this inevitable is like protesting the wheel

Hi! Programmer here! Even using auto-complete counts as vibe coding! Vibe coding is AI slop and is unethical btw! I hope this helps! I can’t believe this has to be said! Wow!

@RyanMarketEdge That’s cuz everyone is stupid

I'll say it once. My strategy for July 13 is: Everyone wanted: $MU at $1,300 and is hesitating at $979. $SNDK at $3,000 and is hesitating at $1,915. $MRVL at $350 and is hesitating at $235. $CRDO at $400 and is hesitating at $257. $ALAB at $650 and is hesitating at $412. $APLD at $65 and is hesitating at $31. $ASTS at $160 and is hesitating at $73. $LUNR at $42 and is hesitating at $16. Warren Buffett: A lower price feels dangerous only when conviction was borrowed from the crowd. Six months from now, investors will call these moves obvious. Today, they still require patience. Psychology never changes.

The thing that worries me the most about the AI trade

@RJCcapital Why do you think I follow you

I am seeing a lot of monkey see monkey do investing lately not good

I think the reason hyperscalers are being punished but $MU is surging is simple. Memory prices are the cost to play the game. The game being AI. The cost to play increased but the rewards haven't. So playing the game is less valuable.

@zeitgeist_labs My main worry is that companies wanting memory doesn’t equal companies willing and able to pay for it. I’m not seeing strong evidence of ROI for agentic usage to justify the economics behind sustaining a 20 trillion memory industry.

@AriaLikesStocks Hedge with short dated puts?

Not sure how I feel about $MU running into ER. My instinct is to lock in profits but also I’m thinking what does it matter in the short term if this is an easy $1800-$2000 stock anyway

@bubbleboi This makes sense but shit like this is how bubbles happen. Not because the concept is flawed but because it opens the doors for idiots to take it too far.

There is a good chance the capital needed to build out AI infrastructure is so large, and the returns so much higher, that it pulls buyers away from U.S. treasuries leading to higher yields & funding costs for the government. Why would you lend to the government at 4.5% when Microsoft, Google, & Amazon are offering paper at a spread, print 100B+ a year in cash flow, and earn 30%+ returns on capital? This might single handily save underfunded pensions & social security lol. Don’t just look at the ~$725B in hyperscaler capex, add the debt for fab expansion, memory capacity, power, and grid that’s about 3–5 trillion dollars through 2030. That’s on the same order of magnitude as what the Treasury will auction over the same period lol. All the stock offerings from Google to Supermicro I think are just the start, we are going to start seeing private capex compete with the government for capital lmaoooo.

@zephyr_z9 Why did this crash the market

Watered down version

@samuelxzhang @UWaterloo @memories_ai @Gemini I manage a few million worth of assets. New to VC but would love to hear about what you’re working on.

hey everyone! i'm samuel - 2nd year cs @uwaterloo - prev eng @memories_ai, ai research @uwaterloo - 99th percentile in multiple national math/coding contests - prev national level fencer; 275lbs max bench - 1.2k+ stars on github projects - turned down swe offers @Gemini @openart_ai and @ yc startups this summer to build smth of my own - got flown out for yc s26 interview yesterday; rejected - staying in sf for a few more days; looking to raise from other investors hmu if interested!

$GFS is worth a look. Initial thoughts are that I can't understand why this company is not up 100% ytd. Digging deeper, they have tough competition with TSM and Intel especially if photonics trends towards GPU-integration as opposed to independent supply chains, however given how hyped photonics is, this stock is probably due for an increase.

@aleabitoreddit Huge glow-up from Flamethrower pattern DD on reddit

wtf. why does it feel like everyone on X is reading my posts now?

$DOCN is the cloud platform that benefits the most from agentic AI use. It used to be only big companies that needed cloud, but with the rise of agents, which drive cloud infrastructure demand, smaller companies need cloud too. Digital Ocean is the cloud platform for startups.

@michaelxbloch I don't buy this to be honest. Relying on the common employee to become a founder is a weak thesis. Moreover, as margins get pushed to zero due to competition no one makes any money anyways. Salary is paid through margins not revenue.

@jukan05 They’ve been wrong too much recently (esp regarding the ai buildout)

Are buy-side analysts usually this aggressive with their numbers? They're throwing out ranges I wouldn't have even dared to suggest.

@yacineMTB Just interned in Hangzhou as a Canadian citizen, the future is bipolar

fuck it i'm going to china this summer. do i have any moots there? i need to tour some factories

@Citrini7 Wow

I used to struggle a lot with finding stocks that were optically expensive, I could bridge them in the bull case to actually being cheap on future numbers but I could never get comfortable enough to buy them. The best way to overcome that, I’ve found, was to stop thinking in such binary terms and realize that you can always weight appropriately. Nothing should be viewed as all or nothing. If you find a name that you can reasonably underwrite 5x-ing, but that’s insanely expensive and could just as easily be down 50%, you can always weight it appropriately to manage that risk. It’s perfectly fine either way and there’s many ways to make money, but if you don’t want to sit out the entirety of the late cycle then learning how to weight opportunities relative to their risk/reward is pretty important.