Ethan Sacoransky

@TrackerSacker A moderate event is possible, though I think a strong event is more likely given current data

@blizzardof96 Ethan realistically what are the chances it relaxes some by the winter?

La Niña is over, as a strong El Niño takes shape in the tropical Pacific.

There is no need for a paper here. You cite the rONI index for December–February at −0.9°C; however, when looking at current ENSO anomalies, you will not find values that remotely resemble that, as surface warming has occurred since the Dec–Feb period and is expected to continue through the spring.

Dear Ethan. So, please write a paper (for Nature Journal) showing RONI, SOI, etc definitions are "lagging" metric. All oceanographic literature about these events/phenomena use these indexes. The tendency exists, the possibilities of a El Niño event is consistente, wait for it.

While there is still debate among meteorologists regarding the progression of El Niño—particularly in terms of its strength (ranging from moderate to strong to super El Niño), the rate at which it develops, and the position of the warmest anomalies (east-based versus basin-wide)—climate models are increasingly pointing toward a strong east-based event, which is associated with some of the warmest winters across much of Canada and the northern United States.

rONI is an important metric, but as a three-month average (December–February), it does not accurately reflect the current state of the tropical Pacific given the large temporal changes we’ve been seeing. This averaging introduces a lag, particularly when conditions are transitioning from a previous base state.

@cyclonicwx @FranklinOrmaza1 Exactly

A composite of the last five strong El Niño winters looked like this across North America.

@ThierryGooseBC Typically warm and wet for southwest BC

@blizzardof96 Bad signal for SW British Columbia, right?

Strong El Niño events, as forecast for next winter, are consistently associated with the warmest and least snowy winters in Canada. However, they have also been linked to unusual events, such as the January 1998 ice storm, which occurred during the 1997–1998 super El Niño.

The ECMWF forecast for March 26th shows a polar vortex split extending from 10hPa down to 50hPa.

This March we saw a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) centered around March 5, and forecast guidance now suggests renewed stratospheric warming and further polar-vortex disruption around March 26–28. SSW criteria require (i) winds to return to westerly for 20 consecutive days between separate events, and (ii) winds to return to westerly for at least 10 consecutive days before 30 April, otherwise the event is considered a final warming and is excluded from “midwinter major SSW” catalogs. In the first event, we did not see easterly wind anomalies clearly propagate downward from the stratosphere into the troposphere. However, forecasts for the upcoming event place the wind reversal lower in the stratosphere, and subsequent guidance suggests at least the possibility of downward propagation into the troposphere. If that occurs, it would increase the likelihood of more high-latitude blocking in April, although that connection remains uncertain at this lead time.

Updated snowfall data brings Toronto to 5th snowiest year on record and counting. @gtaweather1 @AnthonyFarnell

@alluringstorms I am using beginning of November through end of April, which aligns with local range of snowfall climatology.

@blizzardof96 When does Winter end in these totals? Like what's the range in which the cm's of snow received can't be added to this current seasons's Winter?

Yesterday’s 5.6cm snowfall brings Toronto to 6th snowiest winter on record with 185.2cm. Another 2-6cm of snow is expected tomorrow morning, special weather statement issued by Environment Canada.

Freezing rain being reported in MTL and Ottawa

This is a textbook synoptic setup for freezing rain along the St. Lawrence Valley: cold air becomes trapped in the valley with northeasterly flow aligned along the valley axis, while a warm tongue aloft advects in from the southwest.

There have been several notable late-season freezing rain / ice storms in Ontario and Québec over the last decade, including some in March and especially April, which is a climatologically favoured time because shallow cold air can remain near the surface while warm air overruns aloft. Mar 28–31, 2025 — Large ice storm in Ontario & Québec (hundreds of thousands without power). Apr 5–6, 2023 — Major eastern Ontario–southern Québec ice storm Apr 14–16, 2018 — Prolonged freezing rain across southern Ontario & Québec Mar 23–26, 2016 — Southern Ontario ice storm (~$25M damage)

Textbook freezing rain profile for Montreal on Wednesday

RGEM model depicting a major ice storm for the Montreal area on Wednesday. Ice extends west to the Ottawa Valley and central Ontario.

@MurphTWN Still very winter-esque here in Saskatoon.

Meteorological Spring arrived March 1st. Astronomical Spring arrives March 20th this year. Do you consider #March to be a winter month or a spring month? Your location will certainly influence your answer: