out of the Nihilo ...
5.7K posts
Today: hiking with girlfriend and family ✌🏻
Tomorrow: updating my favorite Physical AI and Agentic AI stock picks and price targets!
Will share all the deep dives and price targets on Substack (and tl;dr to X Subscribers of course!)
Link in bio 🔗
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I think I deserve my own Netflix special after $AXTI and $SIVE?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
我现在订阅数已经有32.5K啦！ 真的超级感谢大家！ 照这个速度下去，我简直不敢相信自己快要超过马斯克，变成X上订阅人数第的大佬了？！ 特别感谢中文圈小伙伴们最近的力挺。当然啦，也必须要感谢日韩圈的朋友们从开始就路支持我！
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今天刷Serenity的主页，发现她关注了我，惊讶又开心。如果你这一年关注美股半导体，尤其是 AI 产业链、光模块、硅光、存储、CPO、衬底等这些方向，大概率会刷到过她。
我最开始涨粉 1000 多的一篇帖子就来自于引用她关于投资路径的观点。
那篇内容对我来说挺重要的。因为在那之前，我看半导体更多还是看股票代码、看财报、看涨跌。看到她的分析之后，我第一次真正要沿着产业链往下拆，去看每一轮需求爆发时，真正卡住供给的环节在哪里；去看资金轮动方向。
这套思路后来对我影响很大。我选择重仓的是存储，尤其是闪迪、三星、海力士这一条线。事后看，这个方向确实给了我很大的收益。但同时我也很清楚自己其实错过了很多其他环节的多倍增长。
比如光模块、硅光、CPO、部分材料和小市值供应链公司，有些涨幅并不比存储差，甚至更夸张。
非常感谢Serenity帮助我打开了投资视角。她关注的很多方向，一开始都不是市场最拥挤的主线，但后来会随着 AI CapEx 扩散，被资金重新定价。她致力于把一个还没有被充分定价的逻辑提前讲清楚，并且接受市场后续验证。
我关注 Serenity 的时候，记得她好像还只有几万粉丝。现在已经 30 多万了。她的成长本身也很有代表性，在一个信息越来越噪音化的平台上，真正持续输出高密度产业链研究的人，依然会被市场看见。
她最近关注我，对我来说更像一个小小的闭环。
最开始我只是转达她的观点，借着那篇帖子涨了 1000 多粉，也真正开始研究半导体产业链。之后也引用过多篇内容，几个月后，我自己也在这条路上慢慢积累了一点判断，靠存储这条线赚到了一些钱，也经历了很多次波动、卖飞、回撤和复盘。
投资账号的成长，和投资本身很像。
一开始你只是看见别人怎么分析，后来你慢慢形成自己的框架，再后来，你开始用自己的语言把复杂的东西讲给更多人听。
中间一定会错过，一定会犯错，也一定会有很多如果当时的遗憾。但只要你的认知在往前走，这些错过就不是白白错过。它们会变成下一次判断的底层素材。
最后再次感谢 Serenity @aleabitoreddit 。 感谢长期免费分享高密度的产业链研究，也感谢对投资博主价值的这种定义和坚持：不靠晒账户金额制造权威感，而是靠公开 thesis、持续验证和市场结果来证明研究的有效性。
我也会继续关注和跟踪她的研究，继续学习这种从信息发现、产业链拆解到市场验证的能力。希望自己以后不仅能抓住更多机会，也能把复杂的投资逻辑讲得更清楚更有价值。
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@MirageWL8 @Maifeldtrading Who knows what % of his port he put in $SIVE but he did put in around $2 mill a couple months ago, so he isn't playing with peanuts, which makes his returns off the charts insane.
x.com/aleabitoreddit…
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I just bought ~.5%-1% of $SIVE as a company. I said their future CW laser chokepoint is grossly mispriced. And I put my money where my mouth is. Especially when they're the confirmed light source for Jabil, $MRVL Celestial, O-Net, and other hyperscalers.
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Uhh, I think what actually matters is absolute dollars.
A 2x on $500k is $1M
And a 10x on $100k is $1M
The difference is in dollar amount risked in speculative assets. Most people wouldn’t go all in speculation so absolute dollars absolutely matters.
Managing $100k is vastly different than managing $1M which is vastly different than managing $50M which is vastly different than managing $1B
Also need to consider that a lot of these small market caps don’t really have liquidity to get a multibagger on big accounts unless you’re basically trying to buy the company
Hard disagree here
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter. What matters is return %. Speaking of that... YTD: 3840.39%. I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe. Do you remember these thesis anon? 1. $AXTI 2. $SIVE 3. $AAOI 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK 24. $NBIS 25. $MU They're all up 100-1000%+, because... 1. I post a thesis. 2. People can see how the stock performs months later. 3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns. I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets. Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns. So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages. TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis. Not the dollar amount made.
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@WSJopinion @Mark_Penn peace thru war
life thru death
goodness thru evil
freedom thru repression
gfy
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Don’t leave the Iran war half-won. It is time to finish the job in Iran and seek peace from a position of maximum strength, write @Mark_Penn and Andrew Stein
on.wsj.com/4v3PQAe
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@aleabitoreddit off the charts returns
also off the charts gratitude 🙏
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I don't post dollar amounts because they don't matter.
What matters is return %. Speaking of that...
YTD: 3840.39%.
I'm probably the only one in the world. Who called out multiple names that 10x'd in a short timeframe.
Do you remember these thesis anon?
1. $AXTI
2. $SIVE
3. $AAOI
4. $LITE
5. $IQE
6. $AEHR
7. $CRCL
8. $EWY
9. Unimicron
10. Nitto Boseki
11. $OSS
12. $GDRZF
13. $RPI
14. $SOI
15. $ALRIB
16. $SNDK
17. $SIMO
18. $VPG
19. $TSEM
20. $ARM
21. $MRVL
22. $INTC
23. $LPK
24. $NBIS
25. $MU
They're all up 100-1000%+, because...
1. I post a thesis.
2. People can see how the stock performs months later.
3. They turn out right (thesis validation) because they're up hundreds of percent + hold their returns.
I really dislike the traditional X influencer who shows large dollar amounts or fancy watches/cars/private jets.
Then use that to get more by selling expensive subscriptions rather than through market returns.
So trying to set a new trend off pure information discovery/synthesis from free thesis posts and the results that follow in terms of return percentages.
TLDR: Market returns in terms of percentages matter the most to validate a thesis.
Not the dollar amount made.
krasko@krasko1199362
@aleabitoreddit Notice there's no dollar amount attributed
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@Scoremore_ @garysavage1 When his options are hitting and his subs are making money, his replies are open to everyone. When his options are zeroing out and his subs are getting wrecked, only blue checks can respond.
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@garysavage1 Ok. I'd rather send you the $8.
Have no beef sending you $.
Just not your current prices. Know you are worth it. But I can handle myself & I have my bros.
Choices.
But if you had a lower level I might do it.
Or you could just allow me & I'd be cool as a cucumber.
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Gary. Would have replied but not allowed. Please change if you will.
Jesse Livermore special possible here.
Gary Savage@garysavage1
The weekly stochastics on silver reached oversold and have now crossed up. Gold has just barely crossed up and miners are on the verge of crossing up. Previous oversold conditions were where rallies started. I wonder if everyone is way too bearish.
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@daniel_koss had to sneek that in before V-ball ...
thanks!
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$FCEL trades at only 9.1% of $BE Bloom Energy’s valuation per gigawatt of guided 2027 annualized capacity.
If FuelCell got Bloom’s multiple, it would be ~$15.3B, or an ~11x from today.
To be clear: this will almost certainly not happen. Bloom is the better company and deserves a higher valuation. Period.
Better product. More efficient. More proven. Founder-led. Better revenue visibility. Better margins. Better execution history.
But does that justify Bloom trading at ~11x FuelCell’s valuation per GW of capacity?
That’s the question.
Even at 25% of Bloom’s multiple, FCEL would be ~$3.8B, more than a 2.5x from today.
At 50%, it’s ~$7.7B, more than a 5x.
None of this requires FCEL to be as good as Bloom. It only requires the market to stop pricing FuelCell like it’s doomed.
“Market cap per guided capacity” isn’t weird.
For companies like this, long-term value is about annual capacity, revenue per MW, margin at scale, and dilution.
Demand isn’t theoretical: Nebius $NBIS just raised GPU pricing ~30% overnight.
That’s the compute supply crunch.
And power is the constraint behind every GPU.
FuelCell guides to 350 MW by end of 2027, aiming for 1 GW/year.
In the AI power crunch, 350 MW is tiny.
Every competitive, scalable fuel cell solution will sell out.
FuelCell doesn’t need to be Bloom.
It needs to be good enough and available 😂👌🏻
If FCEL sells out capacity, we could see extreme revenue growth, margin expansion, operating leverage, and a re-rating.
Maybe FCEL deserves a discount.
But 90%+?
That’s too much.
The market prices FCEL like it’s doomed.
If they sell out capacity and become a real AI power supplier, the upside/downside is huge.
That’s the bet.
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@chooserich if u think it's hated now -
"everything is simply digitized. AI is still controlled by humans for now. Later by AI itself & it wages effective war against humanity & largely exterminates the humankind in the distant future & it can no longer be avoided." youtube.com/watch?v=COT6Yz…
YouTube
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AI is probably the most hated technological revolution I’ve ever seen
KΞRL_✂️@KRL_defi_
Nick says the rise of AI feels very different from previous technological revolutions because of how strong the backlash already is. “The biggest thing is the narrative behind this has a strong counter-narrative” “A lot of people are just on the side being like, ‘f*** this’” “When the internet came out, people were like ‘Oh, you’re using a computer? You big dork’ before eventually realizing they needed it” “But, I just think this counter-narrative is strong and very valid at this point in time because the size of those companies that exist are way bigger ”
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@Kruker8 Raven I know for a fact you were a formula baby for 10 years. Your dumbass confidence on one of the biggest losers during the last 5 year big bull market says it all 😂 $PCT squad sit down. I don’t think there’s a worse performing ticker? Dump is already starting. So soon??
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I’ll be right again and it’ll be crickets. Swing traders are milking so much off of $PCT. Pump and dump stocks. Learn to trade em!
Robocop@Mag7Observatory
The recent $PCT pump was well played. But the whispers out there likely are starting to realize “conditional” NJ approval means nothing to a large brand. They need firm commitment and nothing has changed. Once the share price dumps back, permabulls will realize it. So amateur
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@ayzddzya @sama and preventing this -
"everything is simply digitized. AI is still controlled by humans for now. Later by AI itself & it wages effective war against humanity & largely exterminates the humankind in the distant future & it can no longer be avoided." youtube.com/watch?v=COT6Yz…
YouTube
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what problem do you most hope AI will solve in the future?
maybe we can help!
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It has been incredible watching this community grow quickly the last few months. Whether you found me back during the early days of $AEHR, or you recently joined for the deep dives on $FCEL, $VPG, or $PENG, thank you for your support.
I am a 25 y/o guy who has been obsessed with markets since I turned 18. I share this research because there's nothing I want more than to do this full-time and transition out of my day job.
If you find value in these insights, I ask that you continue to like, repost, and share. Every interaction helps me get closer to that goal. Let’s keep building!!
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@peonyKingOF or not?
x.com/daniel_koss/st…
Daniel Koss@daniel_koss
FuelCell Energy $FCEL deep dive with @ThematicTrader Is $FCEL (stock) the next $BE? With the leak that they may land their first data center order, the AI infra pivot is officially complete. Rerating potential from here is massive. 0:01 - Introduction 0:16 - What T5 does 0:42 - Nebius vs T5 1:05 - Fairfax County filings 1:38 - Fuel cell community acceptance 1:59 - Gas turbine noise problem 2:26 - Permits and social license 2:53 - Document uploads 3:01 - Site plans walkthrough 4:24 - Verifying info with subscribers 4:54 - Investor presentations 5:26 - FuelCell deployments 6:11 - Why verification matters 6:21 - FuelCell's market position 7:14 - Future energy demand 7:58 - Regulatory hurdles 8:12 - Bring your own power 8:38 - Demand vs nuclear plants 9:07 - Future power mix 9:35 - Nuclear public perception 10:13 - Nuclear near data centers 10:41 - Why gas turbines fall short 11:09 - Shift to fuel cells 12:07 - Solar and wind options 12:14 - Renewables vs fuel cells 12:58 - Renewable reliability gap 13:54 - Land use for solar 14:28 - Grid pressure 14:52 - Bloom Energy stock reaction 15:16 - Oracle picks Bloom 15:34 - Recent energy deals 16:03 - Bloom's capacity targets 16:23 - Supply can't meet demand 17:18 - What it means for FuelCell stock 17:44 - FuelCell's business model 18:07 - Stock skepticism 19:14 - FuelCell's troubled history 20:02 - Pivot to firm orders 21:32 - Business potential recap 23:04 - Multi-bagger thesis 23:39 - The bull case 24:15 - Demand-driven expansion 25:25 - South Korea opportunity 26:12 - Institutional interest signals 27:28 - Stock volume and options 28:40 - Options chain analysis 30:25 - Rerating catalysts 31:57 - Capacity expansion guidance 34:20 - Valuation upside 37:20 - Revenue potential 39:24 - Energy demand outlook 42:08 - Risks for investors 45:29 - Final outlook
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