Sabitlenmiş Tweet
i wanted to take a moment to explain my thesis for the rest of the run and how my top two holdings fit into it.
so far this cycle, we've seen small projects come and go, following a similar path of launch, hype and decline. the problem with these indie, often so-called 'fair launch' projects (that we've often found to be anything but) like $andr, $agrs, $zeph, etc. is that they're not part of the larger crypto machine. they're simply too indie and don't have the connections or heavyweight backing that will pull the right strings to ensure their survival. kols aren't enough - you need backers and partners; friends in high places. of course, you need a solid project and all the rest, but the connections factor can't be underestimated.
without it, you won't get the right eyes on your project, next to no marketing budget, and you will have an almost impossible time getting listed on a t1 exchange - something that will become more and more important as inexperienced retail enters the market and is unable to access onchain-only projects.
however, as cobie told us, with big backers comes the danger of getting dumped on - backers need exit liquidity after all. thus it is not enough to find undervalued projects with strong backing - they must also have as few emissions from now until cycle top as possible.
my other major consideration is the narrative. it's pretty clear to me that there are two standout narratives this cycle and they are both driven by external catalysts, much like the metaverse run was last cycle. they are rwa and ai. until now, neither of these major potential crypto usecases has been a viable proposition due to the immaturity of either tech or regulatory framework, but this appears to be the cycle where that changes.
both rwa and ai have had one or more 'pre-runs' so far this cycle, which is the same behaviour exhibited by the metaverse vertical before its final blow-off run last cycle. if they continue in its footsteps, they should perform well in the final stages of the run.
of course, memes are also exploding but i'm not interested in those because i am not a cabal member, and so i have no idea what will run beyond just 'vibes' - and any money ventured would be more of a gamble than an investment.
and so to summarise the above, my investment criteria are now as follows:
1. aaa doxxed team with relevant experience in the project's sector
2. market cap under $100m to allow for plenty of room for growth
3. heavyweight industry backing and connections
4. t1 cex listing likelihood
5. minimal/ no emissions
6. rwa or ai
7. shillable
with all of the above out of the way, what are my two top picks for the next stage of the run that satisfy all 7 of the above criteria?
they are $ixs for rwa and $spec for ai.
and while everyone is going on about how there are too many projects now, these are actually the only two projects i have found that satisfy each and every one of these criteria - and i've researched hundreds.
let's go through them. $ixs:
1. great doxxed experienced team, check. take a read through the report by avish i recently reposted for an in-depth look at the excellent team led by julian kwan.
2. market cap is $94m at the time of writing
3. backed by coinbase and partnered with securitize (which is in turn partnered with blackrock) amongst others.
4. it was recently confirmed that the team is aiming for a coinbase listing some time this year.
5. 99% of tokens are already in circulation, therefore barely any emissions.
6. ix swap is a platform for the issuance and trading of tokenised securities and rwa.
7. it doesn't get much more shillable than 'the uniswap of rwa and tokenised securities'.
and $spec:
1. strong doxxed team led by sishir varghese and featuring several experienced machine learning engineers - this is something many other crypto ai projects fall down on.
2. market cap is listed as $88m but is actually $40m due to unclaimed airdrop tokens.
3. spectral labs is backed by franklin templeton, polychain, google and many more. in fact it has one of the most impressive cap tables in the space.
4. $spec is already listed on cryptodotcom, with more listings planned.
5. all airdrop tokens are unlocked and vc tokens are locked until may 2025 - so zero emissions until then.
6. $spec is an onchain ai agent network featuring a first-of-its-kind tool allowing users to create onchain agents using natural language.
7. anyone keeping up with developments in ai will know that ai agents will be a huge part of our daily lives soon. $spec's competition in this space is primarily $olas, whose investor trust has been rocked by the revelation that team members were secretly dumping supposedly locked tokens on the open market and that the team subsequently tried to cover this up, and $mor, with its 400%ish yearly inflation being largely responsible for its abysmal performance since launch.
so a long post, but hopefully one which gives you a better idea of why i'm always banging on about these two projects and why they're my top two holds :)
please read up on them for yourselves if you're interested - and if you know of any other projects which satisfy all 7 of my investment criteria, please do let me know.
English
