Steve Hunter

@TheStalwart As someone who has developed ~35 million lines of C/C++, I'd say, writing code that "works" is easy. Writing code that's designed and written in a way that one can build a real business around, totally different thing.

Here's what's weird about this Amazon tokenmaxxing story to me. How is it that, online, there's so much consensus that the models are objectively useful for coding, and that 80% is a "target" for developer use. Why wouldn't they all be using it it makes their job easier?

@stocktalkweekly No one should be too afraid of crashes. Markets tend to bounce back quickly. They should be deathly afraid of long periods of consolidation.

The market will crash again at some point, as it does every ~7 years. But it's a fools errand to predict when. PhD economists can’t do it, why would you try? The people incessantly warning of crashes, are the same people sitting on the sidelines through historic bull markets.

@philrosenn Dang. I remember when DJIA +-3.5% vs 21-day sma was a very reliable reversal when paired with a trigger like RSI or Stochastic.

Nasdaq 100 is trading 15% above its 50-day moving average for the 3rd time in 30 years. Last 2 times were during 2009 crisis and dot-com crash.

@BarnettforAZ *You* aren't a net exporter of oil. . Oil is owned by people; not politicians, not the US government. . Those of us that *do* own the oil get to sell it to the highest bidder like every other product in America.

Oil companies are ripping us off. It’s not a supply and demand issue. We are a net exporter. We are selling more oil overseas than ever before while the American people are being price gauged. We have access to Venezuelan oil like never before and we are still getting stuck with $5 a gallon gas. We are flat out being ripped off by Big Oil.

@BTCBreadMan @grok You and grok are tying inflation and deflation only to consumer goods. Ie. Inflation = CPI up Deflation = CPI down This definition is narrow and simplistic. If the CPI is up (Consumer Inflation), the dollar is *DOWN* relative to the CPI, which is "Dollar deflation".

@breckgold @grok please explain to Steve why his explanation is not accurate.

The average person thinks that inflation means goods are getting more expensive over time. Almost nobody understands that inflation actually means the money is getting more worthless over time.

@BTCBreadMan Sorry, when something loses relative value, it's "deflation". It applies to dollars and everything else. "Inflation" is when things are gaining relative value. It applies to consumer goods and everything else.

@breckgold Lol. No. Inflation means more currency units being created. Which makes each individual unit worth less.

@DavidDack Never ran a half by itself but sub-1:30 in half irons.

Where does your half marathon time rank? 2:20+: survived it 2:00–2:20: solid 1:45–2:00: strong 1:30–1:45: fast sub-1:30: very fast sub-1:20: nasty work What’s yours?

@BitcoinTeacher_ Age 21, off sales of single family rentals I'd bought using assumable loans and owner financing, and a small duplex subdivision development; all proceeds went into stock funds.

What age did you hit your first 100k invested? Not going to try and feel self conscious about these replies. Just curious.

@Wendi_Irlbeck At age 10-12, I sucked at all sports except swimming, which I'd done since age 5.

Youth sports is on life support. If you think it’s fine, you’re not paying attention. Kids age 10-12 are playing way too many tournaments and travel ball. Parents treat it like the World Series. They need less travel, more rest, fueling, and actual development. They’re 12 YO. The data backs it up: ❌70% of kids drop out of organized sports by age 13. ❌Professionalization (year-round single-sport focus, heavy travel/tournaments) drives overuse injuries, overtraining, and burnout. ❌Nearly 1 in 10 youth athletes experience burnout; up to 35% deal with overtraining. ❌Early specialization before 12-13 raises injury and burnout risks significantly. Multi-sport kids who rest and play for fun stick around longer and develop better. Let them be kids. Prioritize recovery, fun, and long-term health over trophies. The best athletes often sample multiple sports early and specialize later. Who else sees this?

@mark_ungewitter @edclissold Every stock market model gives better buys than sells for obvious reasons.

If my math is correct, NDR’s model will turn bearish if tomorrow's non-seasonally adjusted CPI exceeds 3.4% year-over-year. Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast currently projects 3.6%. Note: The model gives better buys than sells, per table inset. H/t @edclissold

@lindsay__stamp 💯 Once that measurement gets to "forever" based on truly passive (and inflation hedged), royalties, dividends, interest, you are truly free forever.

I stopped measuring my financial health by my income and net worth numbers and started measuring it by how long I can survive without another paycheck. Can confirm it is an elite strategy

@PeterLBrandt HST's with non-horizontal necklines are historically unreliable. But you can draw a parallel counterpart to this down trending line making it a channel break. A bit less reliable than a well-defined HST but minimum implications are pretty much the same.

IF this is a legit inverted H&S (in trading, everything is an IF), the target is a retest of the high $SI_V

@KrisAbdelmessih Heck, even *I* was once investigated (and cleared) by the CFTC.

100% They have lot level surveillance on trades. They'll track down a small time local spoofing 10 lots like a bloodhound. I guess we'll just have to wonder forever about these trades. Disillusioned? It's not left/right. It's Epstein class vs all

@DoubleWideCap Yes I am.

@breckgold So have I. You aren't anything special.

S&P 500 Forward 12-month P/E is 21. 5yr average is 19.9. That is about 3.5% drop in the S&P 500 to get back to the 5 yr average forward PE.

@DoubleWideCap Only fools short an asset that: 1) pays dividends, 2) *should* always rise >= to dollar deflation, 3) is heavily manipulated to the upside, 4) represents the financial system of the best country on the planet. I've been doing this since 1982. I have no problem placing $.

@breckgold short it

@JC_ParetsX The current group of investors has not experienced a long consolidation period of zero return like what ended post August 82 and March 09. Regardless tech2000 vs now, long consolidations must occur *sometime*. I can see a legitimate argument that one is due in the near future.

Sorry. We all know the people constantly retweeting themselves on this app are starving for attention. But this one sparked a surprisingly thoughtful conversation that I think is worth revisiting. Go jump in and let us know what you think.

@Kacper_PK_CH 💯

Good book. If you want to learn. 🙂 And after reading it, you will almost certainly know more than 90% of people selling courses/services on trading options out there.

@GoshawkTrades Not suprisingly, athletes agree and non-athletes do not. But I doubt if Ken Griffin is lying. I'm remain the only D1 football letterman to ever graduate Computer Engineering in my school's history. Playing football and studying engineering is difficult.

Ken Griffin on the single factor he looks for when hiring at Citadel: "show me an athlete who did well academically." "an athlete because they know what it takes to win and they've had to experience loss." talent is everywhere. what's rare is someone who knows how to lose, recover, and still perform at a high level. same thing separates profitable traders from everyone else.