Bret

@pineconemacro What do you think would have happened to duration if the Fed had raised?

A slightly warmer ECI has duration raising rates today

@porterstansb If all those bonds are maturing, why wouldn’t the current holders of them not want more? It’s an astronomical figure but that’s what the private market is demanding.

If you've been wondering how all of "this" -- the government's insane fiscal policies -- will eventually end, study this chart. At some point, the market will balk. And because there's no duration in the funding curve, there will be an epic crisis. The government is flying low into a box canyon. There's no turning around. And no way to clear the rim.

@heIpfullandlord A lazy river

I started putting granite countertops in my student rentals back in 2009. Fellow landlords thought I was nuts, yet also wondered why I was getting $600/m+ more rent. Those countertops paid for themselves in 4-5 months. What's today's differentiator?

@porterstansb The Consti…what? No idea what you’re referring to.

If we're going to war with Iran -- to "finish the job," that should require Congressional approval. And, if we do, someone had better explain to the American people why we give two fucks about that part of the world. Iran can't threaten our sovereignty or our way of life: we're the world's largest producer of hydrocarbons. We have total military dominance over the entire world. We have zero to gain with yet another war in the Middle East. And we have much to lose -- trillions. Someone, anyone... provide some real leadership. Insist on the Constitution being followed. Only Congress can declare war. wsj.com/opinion/trump-… via @WSJopinion

@MebFaber Assuming earnings growth over a long enough period, the strategist would be wrong. This being all in hindsight though.

Fun thought experiment: US stock market trades at Shiller CAPE ratio of 41 currently. 2nd highest ever outside of 2000. Strategist says US stocks are hella expensive, and in a bubble. Recommends investors reduce, or eliminate exposure to the S&P 500 The stock market proceeds to double. Now at CAPE ratio of 82. Then the market declines by 80%. Was the strategist "right"?

@pineconemacro heard you on Know Your Risk Podcast the other day discussing China’s dialing back of stimulus. This may be a response to the SOH closure, trying to lower oil demand in their country. Govts shut things down for Covid, they could be using the same playbook here.

@calvinfroedge $cag has to get closer to a 10 for EV/EBITDA first

Tech investors be like "dilute me harder, daddy" Meanwhile $cag 25% shareholder yield

@Monetary_Metals @solis_mullen What happens to the collateral on those non-paying loans? Does China then own the assets of that country?

China's Belt and Road Initiative looks like a global power move. @solis_mullen says when you look at where the money actually goes, it tells a very different story. "China needs places to send its exports. Well, the developing world doesn't have a whole lot of money. So it lends the currency to the countries, and then the countries turn around and take that currency and send it back to China to buy things from China. In a circle." To Joseph Solis-Mullen, it just looks like a way to keep the domestic economy humming. Chinese influence is probably just a secondary effect. And the loans? A lot of them are performing very poorly. Countries are already talking about needing help to bail some of them out. "It's almost like we haven't had an East Asia crisis, or a Latin American debt crisis, or a Mexico crisis. The more things change, the more they stay the same." It was a huge propaganda coup for the CCP. But the economics behind it look a lot like every other developing world debt story we have seen before.

@NaturallyFTW @MaryBowdenMD @jeffreytucker @US_FDA What is your response to a tick bite in a Lyme disease prone area then? Comment productively, not negatively.

@MaryBowdenMD @jeffreytucker @US_FDA It’s an antibiotic that will fuck up your microbiome for years. Not something to be taken lightly.

A single dose of doxycycline can decrease the risk of contracting Lyme disease after a tick bite from 3% to 1%. Allergic reactions to doxycycline are extremely rare - the lowest of all antibiotics. @US_FDA should make single-dose doxycycline available to the public without a prescription.

@HowlingAmerican @shagbark_hick $.35 in 1875 is about $16.41 today. Where you getting your numbers from?

@shagbark_hick "A dream life of a type that would make our great-grandfathers jump for joy" My G-GPa made 35¢ an hour at a steel plant, which is roughly $140,000 in today's money. Didn't finish high school and made the same as a SWE. His wife didn't work and enjoyed a higher standard of living

$29,000 trailer in Ogdensburg NY. In fine shape, 720 sqft, 2bd, 0.25ac lot with privacy hedges, quiet neighborhood, taxes $640/yr. Genuinely one of the nicer deals I've seen over there in a long time. Walking distance to the Cathedral, market, and waterfront. 90min to Ottawa. Stuff like this is why in spite of the long list of reasons not to be here, I came back to Upstate NY and do find it difficult to leave. I mean if a fellow owned this house he'd pay $53/mo in taxes. With a wood stove for heat, a $35/mo electric bill to run a fridge and lights, $600 worth of firewood each year (or free if he's running a rocket mass heater), no car (use the top-tier rural public transit instead), and a penchant for thrifty buys at the grocery, you could be living here for maybe $400/mo all expenses. Aldi's is hiring PT at $22/hr, walking distance. That's maybe $1400/mo post tax. So to work 20hrs/wk, and living on $400/mo, you're saving $12k a year (for reference, the average American saves $2 - 3k/yr) just in wage work alone. Add in some side hustles, online work, whatever, and you're saving even more, maybe double that. Within a year you've got enough for a second house in town to rent out, and you're debt-free... All this stuff works in real life. It's not just an "on paper" thing -- I really do this stuff. I know it works because I live a similar setup. Once you're living like this you can live a life of leisure if you wish, or you can use your ample free time to build an empire. Your choice. But frankly, nobody's really all that interested in this stuff. A dream life of a type that would make our great-grandfathers jump for joy is now scorned. Most of us appear to prefer big bank loans, monthly payments, big honking trucks, huge HVAC-type McMansions, and jobs that eat up more than half our waking hours. I might be out-of-touch, autistic, crazy, etc but I just do not understand why these kinds of places get overlooked so often. I'm not sure I can think of a more high-ROI endeavor for anyone looking to be free of the "9-to-5-to-pay-my-loans" lifestyle. You'd think people would be fighting over these properties but they just aren't.

@allenanalysis @mcm_ct_usa I followed this account to get ‘other’ info. It now only seems to post incorrect info. That earns an unfollow now.

🚨BOMBSHELL: Fox News just exposed the fracture inside Trump’s Iran negotiating team. Jared Kushner — the man whose fund took $2 billion from Saudi Arabia — secretly offered Iran unlimited uranium enrichment for peaceful use. JD Vance, currently in the air to Pakistan, is demanding zero enrichment. Same administration. Same negotiating team. Completely opposite positions.

@AaronSiriSG Informed consent requires 2 parts. Information on…, and agreement to… Neither of those happen currently.

Reminder that children who do not receive one or more vaccines due to their parent’s convictions are not locked away in an attic. They are going to church, participating in sports leagues, enrolled in ballet class, are part of large homeschool meetups, etc. They are just denied, in a few states, an in-school education. In this instance, let’s be more like Sweden, Norway, Denmark, etc., that have no school mandates. Persuade parents on the merits and, if you can’t, that is called informed consent. They were informed and didn't consent; mandating over their objection is immoral and illiberal.

@SBakerMD More work on posterior chain/hip extension range. Try deep single leg lunges to improve that range. Weights optional. AROM through elongated muscle end range helps.

What do you track guys see? Areas for improvement?

@porterstansb TINA: other govt fiat currencies are worse. Dollar still used to establish foreign credit agreements. If you’re a bankrupt govt what’s the populist solution? Would you rather borrow dollars or actually switch to a hard money policy? Fiat remains the kick the can solution.

Serious question. Serious answers, please. Why would anyone lend money to the U.S. federal government? It hasn't been able to balance its budget in 25 years. It can't reliably pay its employees. It is $40 trillion in debt currently, with its credit rating being downgraded and its borrowing costs soaring. And it is running a ~$100 trillion (!) ponzi scheme, where benefits ratchet higher automatically each year without any matching revenue hikes. If you were going to lend the government $10k for 10 years, what terms would you demand? For me? 10% a year. Gold contract. Now apply that to the $10 trillion+ in required borrowing for the next 12 months. We're bankrupt.

@pineconemacro Indeed. Wondering if/when nations start game planning how to stop being held hostage by such a regime.

Scary and sad stuff 😢

@porterstansb Get the govt out of the economy. Central planning has never worked across generations. And yet populism exists bc most people support central planning.

I want everyone to remember that everything we are about to experience as a country was simple to avoid. We have failed at the basics of civilization, and so, we are going to be destroyed: 1. Don’t initiate violence. For the last 60 years, we’ve been the aggressor in every conflict. Doesn’t make us safer. 2. No representation without equity. When you can vote yourself my property without contributing yours, there is no liberty. 3. If you don’t kill the criminals, they will kill you. Empathy for victims. No mercy for perpetrators — or their families. Find a rope. And make their families pay reparations. Crime will disappear. 5. Citizenship must be earned: contribute to society, have children, pay taxes for 10 years, no criminals. Then you’re a citizen. 6. Everything you let the government do, will suck. Post office. Amtrak. Schools. Privatize all government functions with 10-year competitive bids. 7. Never allow the government to borrow money or print it. Where the government controls both the sword and the currency, there will be no freedom. What did I leave out?

@cmkiel @porterstansb That requires govt getting out of the economy. Not gonna happen bc the electorate overwhelmingly thinks central planning is good.

@BulwarkCap @KYRRadio DoH closure along with current market pricing gives Jan/Feb 2020 vibes. If market is correct on oil price, then that’s deliberate demand destruction by country’s (like Philippines currently). That creates global supply/demand balance and spurs massive global inflation like ‘22

20% of the world’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz. If that flow stops… the market can’t replace it. 🤔 What happens to oil prices then? Hear the full breakdown on @KYRRadio . 🏢 Bulwark Capital 📞 253-509-0395

@porterstansb Isn’t it ironic that when you teach all these young white males how to be racist that they then respond to you by saying racist things.

@JackFarley96 The question remains, since so much of the world is reliant on trade through the Strait, which side will other countries choose to join in an effort to re-open it?

Yes. Sulfur is key in this too