capconstrained

I believe in America. America has made my fortune.

@izakaminska You need to rebalance the UK economy away from London RE which probably mean a significant devaluation

My totally outrageous and not at all serious 10 point plan to save Britain. 1) The entire Labour government does the honourable thing and resigns on the basis that remaining in office merely guarantees it will preside over the eventual loss of economic control. 2) Officially acknowledges that, without IMF backing and access to dollar liquidity, Britain’s current economic model is structurally unsustainable — particularly for a country whose comparative advantage is supposedly financial credibility. 3) Establishes a government of national unity in which day-to-day economic management is handed to industry-backed technocrats and entrepreneurs under a four-year “rebuild or bust” mandate. 4) Pegs sterling to the dollar in order to restore monetary credibility and halt the slow transformation of Britain into an upper-middle-income crisis economy. [Alternatively removes all barriers to USD stablecoins and allows explicit dollarisation that way.] 5) Slashes corporate taxes, accelerates planning reform, and dismantles layers of administrative and regulatory drag in an emergency bid to revive productivity and private investment. 6) Restricts full NHS eligibility to citizens and settled residents, with everyone else moved onto a contributory or fee-based system outside emergency treatment. 7) Realigns British industrial, defence and trade policy explicitly around American strategic priorities in exchange for preferential access to US capital, markets and dollar funding. 8) Offers Washington broad regulatory and geopolitical alignment — including on technology, energy and security policy — in return for expedited customs access and a de facto economic stabilisation umbrella. 9) Reopens the North Sea at full scale, removes remaining extraction constraints, and adopts the official position that “drill, baby, drill” is now a matter of national solvency. 10) Cancels the Diego Garcia deal immediately on the grounds that no country negotiating for IMF support should be voluntarily reducing its strategic collateral. The other option is all of the above but joins the eurosystem or China instead.

@datadomNY @MikeBartner My Galaxy Brain Take: Trade Pelech and Aitchenson for Chernyshov and the Sharks #2 pick and play Shaefer on the right

@MikeBartner Play Schaefer on the right, keep Pelech

Kash Money’s amazing OHL playoff run is just further proof that Darche HAS to capitalize on Pelech’s trade value right now. Teams contending rn would lovvvveeee to add a shutdown 2nd pair LHD at sub 6M.

@NDRedEagle @ian_LGI16 @PuckPedia Realistically, a lot has to happen before the Isles are a top 4 team in the league. It's safer to keep selling and not adding until multiple forward prospects are top 6 players, capable of scoring 25 or more.

@ian_LGI16 @PuckPedia Looks even to me. But Isles would still need a couple more good defensemen (at least one RHD) to compete for the Cup before Horvat ages out, I feel. I think it's unrealistic for NYI to compete for 2027 or 2028 Cup (say, top 5 team in NHL), so I'd rather they get younger.

A #stlblues fan proposed this trade on @PuckPedia Would you accept #isles fans??

@IslesWig @incarceratedbob @Sportsnet I know; that's why I'm asking.

@capconstrained @incarceratedbob @Sportsnet Pelech and McDavid are actually buds. Played junior hockey together for Erie.

"We were an average team all year. When you're an average team with high expectations, you're going to be disappointed." Connor McDavid speaks with the media following the end of the Oilers season

@yolo_pinyato @CJTDevil @DavidSt_Louis you just posted some model that indicates future buium as good as schaefer. Good luck with your analysis.

@capconstrained @CJTDevil @DavidSt_Louis lol I think you have reading comprehension issues if you think I hold buium in high regard at the moment.

there's just hughes.

@yolo_pinyato @CJTDevil The fact that you rate Zeev Buium so highly indicates your model is flawed. Schaefer's ceiling defensively is Slavin while Buium has serious defensive issues. I suggest you look at @DavidSt_Louis writeup.

@capconstrained @CJTDevil can project schaefer just fine, but there are other defenseman who already do what he has the potential to do but are much better at it at this very second. x.com/yolo_pinyato/s…

@yolo_pinyato @CJTDevil if you can't project Schaefer than you need to self-censor

@capconstrained @CJTDevil Well then get back to us next year

@yolo_pinyato @CJTDevil will be 60% xG monster next year

@capconstrained @CJTDevil No

@CJTDevil @yolo_pinyato You mean Schaefer

@yolo_pinyato Not true. There's Fox too.

@incarceratedbob @Sportsnet Does Pelech have to stay in order for this to happen? I want to trade him this offseason.

@Sportsnet 48 & 97

@izakaminska It was really a free-rider system. Europe exploited US hegemony in a myriad of ways. The export-led growth is worse than security underinvestment imo but is easiest for US politicians to understand.

MUST READ VoxEU Column from Marco Buti Giancarlo Corsetti Anna Peychev 👇 TLDR: Europe has significantly mispriced the value generated by American Security umbrella and created an economic model that simply doesn't finance itself on strategic autonomy grounds. They refer to it as EU's "Reduced Responsibility Model". This is a good name. Though, I personally would call it: Capitalism, with "joie de vivre" characteristics. What Europe is currently facing in their telling is the collapse of the RRM model. The only antidote is a far more cohesive and centralised system which cross insures risks in the form of Habermasian "insurance-based solidarity". Also known as a new social contract. Great column. cepr.org/voxeu/columns/…

@robin_j_brooks Hoarding does happen you know. US refiners coming off maintenance will start widening the gap again imo.

Lots of ink was spilled in recent weeks on decoupling between physical and paper oil prices (lhs). But here we are: the gap (rhs) is the narrowest it's been in 6 weeks. This after all the talk this gap could only go wider. Lots of urban legends in oil... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debunking-mo…

@nyytakes No

Are the 2026 Rays just going to be this year's 2025 Blue Jays? A team that overachieves and beats the crap out of the Yankees all year to win the division by a game?

@FormerlyCBM @CoreyWriting @RantyAmyCurtis I have a Costco membership and it’s the best retail experience in America. Only place that isn’t trying to rip me off.

@CoreyWriting @RantyAmyCurtis Yeah, I'm calling bullshit here. I'd bet that very few people pay for a Costco membership to avoid SNAP recipients. It's far more likely they go because Costco offers a value prop they can't get at their local Kroger. Btw, a store they'll still have to visit for other items

I think this misses the point of Costco. Many people pay the membership fee to avoid having to be around people with SNAP benefits. It's the same logic behind paying for a car rather than using public transpiration options. People want to avoid antisocial and violent behavior.

@izakaminska Carney is the worst. Trying to out Merkel Merkel.

Carney announced Canada will launch a sovereign wealth fund to de facto fund its industrial policy. That’s a lot of big fancy words to say Canada will be offering subsidies to operate more of a planned economy. Wonder if Chinese banks will be co investors? ft.com/content/e03d21…? Canada launches C$25bn sovereign wealth fund to boost growth

@badgernewman @ThaaatColin Case has great pre-med and biomechanical engineering -- hello Cleveland Clinic and UHS -- but is no where near Carnegie Mellon in Computer Science. Tepper has given Carnegie a blank check to build whatever it wants.

@capconstrained @ThaaatColin Not sure I agree. My son attended CWR and my Daughter Carnegie Mellon. Both went on to very successful careers in research, pharma, and medical. But it helps to have parent's IQ!!!

Bullish on this part of America

@izakaminska Probably thinks SOH opens within 3 months and it’s time to make hay

Interesting development. Something to do with UAE leaving OPEC? x.com/DeItaone/statu…

@NDRedEagle He’s going to be a monster next year

Didn't Schaefer spend time training with Giordano last summer? Went from "can he be a top-4 rookie defenseman" to "oh, look he has 59 points." Perhaps some more one-on-one time will help him reach a new level.

UAE Announcement: If backwardation increases on this announcement, it will enable Treasury to increase selling time spreads if that's their strategy. Otherwise, nothing burger in the short run.