capnpope

@sershokunin @ringwraith10 TTF?

a week premature and no conviction because brent-wti collapsed even more before exploding but clearly spending a cycle learning about oil was a lot more +EV than chasing basis can't make the same mistake on natgas now

@hellojintao No

buying tao???

@0xNessus whats the token utility sir

Our top user and now our top staker is literally going to save $30k a year just by staking the whole airdrop he got.

@0xMerp oil and hype ?

Networth 2x in the last month while everybody yapping about the end of the world Hyperliquid

bought some hype here @ $23

@KAIZ3NS balls aligning too

I wonder what else is meant to bottom in October? The 4 year cycle prophecy will be fulfilled. Stars aligning, balls tingling, don’t know.

@TheSlurper_ @toplonging same happens

@toplonging imagine it's just 2022 all over again where vix just pumps to 35 then dumps on repeat for 8 months

*checks timeline to see people panicking end of times* *checks vix* 3% up we’re in for some fun when things start to actually panic

@plur_daddy (cash and retard)maxxing

Equity bears are at the brink of insanity given resilience in the indices, but odds of a breakdown are increasing now. Equities top slowly as passive flows and rotational dynamics can hold up indices for a long time. There are many structural forces rigged to push them higher, and thus it takes a lot to make them go down. Over the course of an equity bull market, buy-the-dip behavior continually gets reinforced, and the majority of capital will be controlled by adherents to this mantra. In theory, the longer prices remain coiled, the larger the move once they exit the range. This nuke in gold suggests there are liquidity issues brewing under the surface. It feels like a preview of what is going to happen to crowded trades. My theory is the Middle East is selling gold to shore up capital, as they have lost their revenue, and have many expenses around defence. They will also need to rebuild lost energy infra, and eventually, new pipelines to reroute around Hormuz. The buyback window is starting to close, and the sugar rush of higher-than-usual tax refunds is starting to fade. Retail has been a key marginal buyer of equities in these past weeks, and the fading of the tax refund tailwind is critical. The market is gradually coming to terms with the fact that this conflict may last for a long time. On a conventional level, the US and Israel have completely dominated Iran, but Iran has an asymmetric edge when it comes to controlling world oil prices through Hormuz. Trump can still end it, but the issue is that the US cannot simply leave, a ceasefire with Iran must be struck in order to guarantee that Hormuz is reopened. In order to strike a ceasefire, Iran wants to see a guarantee that the US and Israel won't attack them again (at a bare minimum), and it will be difficult for the US to get Israel to agree to that. Trump is used to being able to quickly maneuver according to his whims, as he did with tariffs, but the complex interlocking physical realities of war are different. Oil shocks often contribute to the end of bull markets, since they constrain consumer spending, hit manufacturing, and lower the ability of central banks to offer support. Indeed, the Fed came out slightly hawkish yesterday, and Powell also hinted that he may stay in his Governor seat post his role as Chair ending, which would constrain Trump's plans to unleash liquidity. We have a stronger dollar and long duration bond yields are going up over the world, which tightens liquidity. The Middle East is tight on money now and they were the marginal bidder in many assets. In particular, they were a key funder for AI capex through their investments in the frontier labs. They've been 40-50% of recent big rounds. Remember other deep pockets like Softbank are close to being tapped out. Any dollar that goes into these rounds will have to come out of something else, like liquid stocks (look at my pinned post for this broader thesis). And if we have any signs of risk to AI capex expectations, this will be a major shift that the market needs to contemplate. I've said this before, but puts are a difficult way to express bearish equity views because timing is so uncertain. Equities can hold on for a long time, because they are structurally rigged to go higher. Easier expressions are simply being in cash, or gradually shorting cash stocks over time, which helps avoid getting chopped. This is a very difficult market, stay safe out there.

@stoicsavage vibes !

@Tradermayne mirroring 2022 to the T

$US500 Cycle low soon, bounce into a lower high I think.

@choffstein @bxunit someone "exclusive" probably called

@bxunit Annnnnddd @bxunit deleted the tweet. Suspicion mode re-activated.

Alright, y'all, looks like I'm eating crow on this one. This post from @bxunit very much says it is truly exclusive. "While this is the first product of its kind, it is also the only official S&P 500 perp product, meaning trade[XYZ] holds the exclusive license for an S&P 500 perp. Both sides recognized the importance of this and so we worked persistently to reach an agreement for exclusivity." In this case, absolutely hats off to the team for securing the exclusivity. x.com/bxunit/status/…

@insomniacxbt so.. down 30% more then

complex pullback on tao think this is going to be a core spot position with the others accumulation time.

@bxunit @tradexyz Hyperliquid

@swansonbenson0 @Nebraskangooner .. to buy at 15

@Nebraskangooner could dump to $20s but that's just more accumulation zone for the real ones

$HYPE Well... could be topped here. Given how the rest of the market has reacted at resistance. Had a nice breakout though so hopefully people have been shaving profit along the way given the current conditions.

@skewga_hyper higher prob its a 2022 style slow one

@capnpope I think it depends on how fast it unwinds

Good moment to have a list of risk assets you want to buy in the next 2 months.

@SoskaKyle this run metals were never a "geopolitical or inflation hedge" trade, it was all gamblers tradfi and crypto alike who punted on

Who has a thesis on why gold/silver are down, and what changed from the reasons that propelled them higher in the last year?

Yearly high looks in for HYPE, back to $20 we go.

@taobanker san fransisco gay cabal strikes again

The best investor I know is getting absolutely fucking plowed

$HYPE has locally topped