Cayteya

♦️ “Considering the many international armed conflicts around the world, including the latest escalations in the Middle East, the following seeks to recall some of the important principles and rules of international humanitarian law that parties are bound to respect.” - ICRC

So Trump schedules a statement on Iran for 9pm, outside of market hours. The heads of 2 different allied nations hold their own addresses distancing themselves from the war, and warning of a prolonged energy crisis... The EU issues a formal statement on a prolonged energy crisis risk... Regardless of what Trump ends up saying, our allies have either been briefed on, or have intelligence on some action that they think escalates or prolongs this conflict - and they are warning their citizens to prepare for that. That is ominous at the very least. The date at which the last US troops deployed would arrive is April 7th - but if that was for a uranium recovery operation, we'd expect initial escalatory action prior. So we get to wait and wonder if he is announcing boots on the ground, or a public claim of victory to talk down the markets, while continuing the same amount of strikes behind the scenes.

💧 #Desalination plants are an integral lifeline for #Gulf countries, allowing seawater to be converted into usable resources in an arid region. Now, as the war in the #MiddleEast rages on, they are often targeted by air strikes, moves that could be considered war crimes.

#Iran War Update No. 32 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹Israeli strikes on Iran’s industrial base continued, including repeated attacks on steel facilities and technical universities. This reinforces a pattern of targeting long-term production and technological capacity rather than purely military assets. 🔹These strikes have intensified debate within Iranian circles, with some arguing that Iran’s largely proportional responses in the industrial domain (steel factory for steel factory, refinery for refinery) have failed to generate sufficient deterrence against Israel. 🔹In contrast to earlier escalation against U.S. threats of targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure – where disproportionate responses appeared to impose restraint – current retaliation against Israel is seen as too calibrated to alter Israeli behavior. 🔹This has strengthened calls among some commentators for a shift toward broader horizontal escalation and more disproportionate responses to raise direct costs for Israel. At the same time, analysts note a structural limitation: strikes on GCC infrastructure may influence U.S. calculations but have limited direct deterrent impact on Israel. 🔹 In fact, there are indications that the Iranian armed forces may already be on the path of disproportionate and horizontal escalation. The IRGC has warned that American-linked technology and AI companies operating in the region could be considered legitimate targets. 🔹Growing signs of a shift toward ground-war preparation by the U.S. is becoming visible. The reported deployment of A-10 close air support aircraft, alongside strikes on artillery, rocket systems, and border positions, suggests battlefield shaping for possible ground engagement. 🔹This combination of degrading Iran’s support firepower while brining close-support assets have sparked speculations of a transition from air strikes toward operational preparation for ground scenarios. 🔹Iranian officials continue to reject the notion that negotiations are underway, describing current contacts with the United States as limited message exchanges rather than formal diplomacy. 🔹At the same time, Tehran maintains that it is not seeking a ceasefire, but a comprehensive end to the war across all fronts, coupled with guarantees against future conflict. 🔹The Strait of Hormuz remains a central lever. Iran continues to emphasize that passage is open for non-hostile states, while discussions persist about monetizing control of the waterway through toll systems. In a recent development, Russia has been reportedly told that its ships can safely pass through the strait. 🔹At the same time, global energy markets remain under pressure, with oil prices rising to 118 USD per barrel amid continued escalation and persistent risks to maritime flows. 🔹Israeli targeting patterns appear to be evolving further, with reported strikes on a pharmaceutical production facility. This suggests an expansion from industrial and academic targets into sectors directly tied to public welfare and social resilience. 🔹This has been interpreted as another indication of Israel destroying Iran’s potential to rebuild and reconstruct not only its military potential but also civilian infrastructure after the war and to push the country toward a failed state scenario. 🔹European positioning continues to shift toward caution and partial distancing. After Spain, Italy and France have imposed restrictions on U.S. military access for the war against Iran, while broader European concern is primarily driven by rising economic costs of the war and potential longer term security implications. 🔹As a result, transatlantic tensions are increasing, with Washington openly criticizing European allies for limiting support and signaling a reduced willingness to bear the burden unilaterally. 🔹Within the GCC, divisions remain visible. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are reportedly pushing for continued pressure on Iran, while Oman and Qatar favor de-escalation, reflecting diverging risk calculations among regional actors. 🔹The UAE, in particular, is facing significant economic fallout, with sharp declines in markets, real estate, and aviation activity. These factors help explain its more assertive stance. 🔹Iranian pressure on UAE is also intensifying, with explicit threats to target critical infrastructure such as the Fujairah port and pipeline networks if support for U.S. operations continues. 🔹At the operational level, Iran appears to be continuing a strategy of targeting logistical hubs and staging areas, including bases in Kuwait and Iraq, to complicate any potential U.S. ground deployment. 🔹This aligns with a broader pattern of preemptive pressure aimed at disrupting force buildup and limiting the feasibility of a ground offensive before it materializes. 🔹Meanwhile, attacks by Iraqi armed groups against U.S. positions continue at scale, indicating sustained pressure across secondary fronts. 🔹Internally, the Iranian regime is tightening control, including executions and arrests, reflecting ongoing concern about internal stability amid prolonged external conflict. 🔹Diplomatic efforts continue in parallel, with Pakistan and China advancing proposals for de-escalation, although key elements – particularly regarding reopening of Hormuz and an immediate ceasefire– remain misaligned with Iranian positions. 🔹At the same time, Israeli leadership has signaled that any ceasefire with Iran would not constrain operations in Lebanon, pointing to a separate track of escalation against Hezbollah. Iran, however, continues to emphasize that the end of the war should cover all regional fronts. 🔹Overall, day 32 highlights a growing asymmetry in which Israel is escalating toward systemic degradation of Iran’s industrial and social infrastructure, while Iran’s responses have yet to impose comparable long-term costs on Israel.

Every word

Emergency teams rushed to the scene to assist the wounded and assess the impact. LIVE UPDATES: #4172" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">en.royanews.tv/news/68640#4172

A first look at an apparent tungsten pellet from the U.S. strikes on Lamerd, Feb. 28. PrSM is designed to detonate above target and disperse thousands of these pellets outward. Our analysis shows they killed at least 21 people, including girls who were at volleyball practice.

“The PrSM is barely out of the prototype phase, and the Army has not yet created an entry for it in the military’s supply system or given it an official nomenclature — much less disclosed details like its maximum range, its accuracy or the amount of explosives it carries.” ⤵️

Judge dismisses Trump administration lawsuit against Colorado + Denver over immigration laws: "A federal judge on Tuesday dismissed the Trump administration’s attempt to overturn *sanctuary* laws enacted by Denver and Colorado that limit cooperation with federal immigration authorities. U.S. District Court Judge Gordon P. Gallagher ruled in the 13-page opinion that federal authorities could not compel officials in Denver or at the state level 'to implement federal regulatory programs'. He rejected the federal government’s attempt to strike down the city’s + the state’s rules limiting cooperation with immigration enforcement, and he fully dismissed the lawsuit, which was filed in May, less than four months after President Donald Trump returned to office. 'This lawsuit by the Trump administration was a straightforward attack on Colorado’s sovereignty', Attorney General Phil Weiser said in a statement. He was one of the named defendants in the suit, alongside Gov. Jared Polis, Denver Mayor Mike Johnston, the city of Denver, the state of Colorado, and other prominent officials. 'The 10th Amendment protects states’ rights to make our own decisions about how our personnel protect public safety', Weiser said. 'In the order, the court makes it clear that the federal government cannot force states and local governments to use their resources for federal civil immigration enforcement'...” denverpost.com/2026/03/31/col… via @denverpost

What other democratic nation on earth does this with effectively nil consequences?

@Raymartin55 Tom Dannenbaum, a law professor at Stanford Law School, said the laws of war require that any controlled demolition of homes be justified by "absolute military necessity," adding that destroying all homes near the border would not meet that standard. 👇🏽 x.com/tomdannenbaum/…

🚨 BREAKING: American journalist Shelly Kittleson abducted in Iraq American freelance journalist and AL-MONITOR contributor @shellykittleson was abducted by unidentified individuals in Baghdad on Tuesday, Iraq’s Interior Ministry said, prompting security forces to launch an operation to track down the perpetrators. al-monitor.com/originals/2026…

A nation that helped shape modern war reporting is now treated as peripheral. In the wake of journalist killings, the consequences are clear, writes Zahra Hankir. cjr.org/feature/who-is…

📽️ WHY are diesel prices rising so fast? Well, partly because this is the worst oil supply shock in modern history. And partly because of an obscure decision taken by politicians decades ago. My latest mega primer on the economic consequences of war in the Gulf👇

MESSAGE I wholeheartedly endorse the powerful appeal for peace made by the Holy Father, Pope Leo, during his Palm Sunday Mass. His call for the laying down of arms and the renunciation of violence resonated profoundly with me, as it speaks to the very essence of what all major religions teach. Indeed, whether we look to Christianity, Buddhism, Islam, Hinduism, Judaism or any of the world's great spiritual traditions, the message is fundamentally the same: love, compassion, tolerance, and self-discipline. Violence finds no true home in any of these teachings. History has shown us time and again that violence only begets more violence and is never a lasting foundation for peace. An enduring resolution to conflict, including the ones we see in the Middle East or between Russia and Ukraine, must be rooted in dialogue, diplomacy and mutual respect — approached with the understanding that, at the deepest level, we are all brothers and sisters. I urge for and pray that the violence and conflicts may soon come to an end. DALAI LAMA 31 March 2026

It’s not just Ben Gvir. People keep pointing to him like he’s the problem, like he’s some outlier—but he isn’t. He’s a reflection of a system that backed this. 62 Knesset members voted for the death penalty law. Stop pretending this begins and ends with one man. It doesn’t.

#Iran War Update No. 31 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹A missile strike on Israel’s Bazan refinery complex in Haifa marked a continuation of Iran’s retaliatory strikes targeting Israeli energy infrastructure in response to Israeli attacks on similar facilities in Iran. However, the impact of such strikes on infrastructure in Israel still appears limited compared to similar cases in the Gulf. This may partly reflect constraints on available information regarding attacks in Israel, but it is also likely tied to differences in Iran’s operational capabilities at short range (the Persian Gulf) versus long range. 🔹In any case, Iranian narratives framed the strike not as incidental damage but as part of a deliberate campaign against Israel’s industrial backbone, signaling a shift toward sustained infrastructure warfare as a core pillar of strategy. The prevailing assessment is that, as the conflict enters a more attritional phase and Israel’s missile interception capacity becomes strained, Iran’s ability to inflict more serious damage in the coming days will increase. 🔹Across both state and semi-state spheres, March 30 was presented as a landmark (one month of resistance) and as evidence that the initial U.S.-Israeli objective of rapid strategic collapse had failed. In this sense, there is growing discussion of a transition toward a war of endurance. 🔹This narrative aligns with the growing confidence among Iranian strategists noted earlier. In other words, Iranian discourse is no longer centered on merely withstanding pressure, but on demonstrating that time and economic disruption are increasingly working in Iran’s favor. 🔹The Strait of Hormuz continues to feature as a structural lever to be sustained over the long term. Iranian state propaganda emphasizes near-total disruption of shipping flows to underscore global economic dependence on Iranian decisions. However, beyond propaganda, political actions and legal justifications point to a serious Iranian intent to maintain control over the strait. 🔹In this vein, Iran’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission has prepared a draft law for the “management of the Strait of Hormuz,” which is expected to be reviewed soon. The draft includes measures such as imposing transit fees on passing vessels. At the same time, Iran’s Foreign Ministry considers the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz to be legally justifiable, arguing that under wartime conditions, the principle of safe passage does not apply to belligerent parties. 🔹At the same time, the broader debate over the strait reflects an evolution in Iranian thinking, where escalation dominance is increasingly defined in economic terms rather than purely military metrics. 🔹In another related development, satellite imagery showed fires at two pumping stations along the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which transports oil from Abu Dhabi to the port of Fujairah, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Although Iran has not officially claimed responsibility, the prevailing view among commentators is that this was intended to hinder the development of alternatives to the strait and preserve Iran’s leverage. 🔹Trump’s renewed threats to strike Iranian oil infrastructure and force the Strait of Hormuz open were interpreted in Tehran as evidence of strategic frustration rather than strength, reinforcing the narrative that Washington lacks viable off-ramps. Among analysts, there is broad consensus that Tehran is unlikely to take Trump’s threats seriously. 🔹At the same time, Iranian officials continue to publicly reject the existence of meaningful negotiations, framing U.S. diplomatic signaling as, at best, an attempt to calm U.S. and global markets and, at worst, a deceptive cover for continued escalation. 🔹Meanwhile, Lebanon has seen a notable widening of the battlespace, with Israeli evacuation warnings extending into the western Bekaa, suggesting a shift toward broader targeting patterns deeper inside Lebanese territory rather than localized border engagements. 🔹This has been interpreted as Israel moving toward a strategy of fragmenting Hezbollah’s operational space. While Iran benefits from tying down Israeli resources on a secondary front, there are growing concerns about developments on the ground in Lebanon. This helps explain Iran’s insistence that any plan to end the war should encompass “all fronts,” not just Iran. 🔹Simultaneously, political tensions in Beirut have intensified as Iran refuses to withdraw its ambassador despite pressure from the Lebanese government, highlighting Tehran’s unwillingness to concede influence even under military pressure. At the same time, there are concerns in Tehran that this could provide Israel with a pretext to carry out a direct or indirect attack against the Iranian embassy in Beirut. 🔹Yemen’s role has remained limited in immediate impact but has grown in strategic relevance, with drone launches toward Eilat reinforcing the emergence of a southern pressure front. 🔹The significance lies in force dispersion. Even low-intensity Houthi activity compels Israel to divert air defense and surveillance assets away from Iran and Lebanon. This is an advantage for Iran in a war of attrition. 🔹Iraq has remained comparatively quiet kinetically, but tensions have risen as Kuwait formally protested militia activity originating from Iraqi territory. This may signal growing Gulf frustration with Baghdad’s inability to contain armed groups, whose activities could expand into other Gulf theaters if escalation leads them to more directly join the war on Iran’s side. 🔹This may also point to a shift in the role of Iraqi armed groups from a purely anti-U.S. pressure tool to a source of intra-regional friction, thereby increasing the political cost of their operations for the Iraqi government. 🔹Internally, Iran has intensified its domestic security posture, with expanded arrests and counterintelligence activity reflecting concerns over information leakage and wartime dissent. 🔹This reflects a dual-track approach in which external messaging projects resilience and control, while internal measures indicate awareness of vulnerabilities associated with a prolonged conflict. 🔹Across all fronts, a clearer division of labor is emerging: Lebanon as the primary attritional theater, Yemen as a latent maritime pressure zone, and Iraq as a more flexible arena with the potential to engage both the United States and the Gulf states. 🔹Overall, Day 31 reflects consolidation rather than escalation, with Iran refining a theory of victory centered on endurance, distributed pressure, and the progressive externalization of the costs of war.

Israel's death penalty law entrenches a discriminatory two-tiered system of justice, a hallmark of apartheid. Combined with severe restrictions on appeals and a 90-day execution timeline, it aims to kill Palestinian detainees faster and with less scrutiny. trib.al/O8mBT36

A precise and detailed thread explaining the key rules relevant to assessing these attacks

In what world is it okay for the Defense Secretary to make multi-million dollar investments in defense companies: a) Ever; b) Just before launching a war. FT has the scoop: ft.com/content/744ea8… In a functional democracy, he would offer his resignation tonight.

Israel Ambassador Hillel Newman can't explain why Australia's investigator into the Israeli drone strike that killed aid worker Zomi Frankcom was not given access to the audio communications of the drone operator. @annajhenderson