@AtlasShrug1 @ButcherKuka What was your expectation when u decided to start the experiment?
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Cesar Sroy
2.5K posts
@cesarsroy @ButcherKuka This has been more of an experiment for me. A trial phase to see how I liked it here. But I have nothing to prove at this point in my life. I’m happy just returning to being an observer and keeping my account private and very small.
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Does anyone actually still listen to Serenity or Paradis, or is there a realization that they know tech and can ride beta in a tech bull market but that’s about it? How about all of the those Taiwanese picks huh? They say nothing when they fall 50% on their way to 70-80% declines. FinX is a messed up place. Needs to be cleaned up.
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Hope $ALAB has the cure for cancer, otherwise I think it getting cut in half by end of Sept. 30x 2027 sales 😂. Yeah, that’s sustainable. Who owns this at this level in a tape where multiples are contracting and little will be left standing over 10-12x sales. Just absurd. And this is precisely why even if we get a bottom in the next couple of days, it won’t be THE bottom, more work to do.
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@outlierrcapital @EchoAnalysis The market will do what it wants to do. Even if the business is solid. Id take advantage of 30 to buy hard.
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$LMND No changes👀
I'm confident price will make a new low and will test the 200WMA in the $30s.
Patience here. I am warning you.
Echo Analysis@EchoAnalysis
$LMND Expect lower 👀 We have got this spot on and price is now rejecting off the 0.618 very sharply. This is clearly transitioning into Wave C. Expecting a bottom at the 40s minimum. Patience.
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@AtlasShrug1 Haha well, I think you scared them with that downside target lol. To be fair you were already warning them a while ago. I believe u had in mind a 9 for bear case and a 21 for bull case.
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@cesarsroy No scare, at $7-8 I like it, that’s why I was willing to sell the puts!
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$NOK - my timeline was full of dip buyers posting their trades a couple of weeks ago. Where have the buyers gone?
@AtlasShrug1 has scared them.
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@TheRonnieVShow I doubled my position this week. Its ready now to fall 10% haha
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@AtlasShrug1 @Temple_Eight Are u going to reload on shorts? I have the feeling that qqq IV will be expensive for puts.
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@cesarsroy @Temple_Eight Oversold bounce, that’s all we gonna get. Then back down. Mark it.
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Capitulation day. A Big recovery is coming next week. $NQ
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@TheRonnieVShow Bro you said 684 in the video. Sorry but we didnt get there. Not fully spot on ;)
Im joking of course. Good job. Lets see that rally back to 740.
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SERIOUSLY?!
We are spot on since July 8th on $QQQ
$700 -> $725 -> $687
Next up is a move to $740 before a leg lower.
No way this happens right? 😅
Full original video here: youtu.be/0qCUdrXyquQ?si…
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RonnieV@TheRonnieVShow
Market is still bullish, but... The cracks are starting to show on $SPY $QQQ I broke down the warning signal I’m watching: youtu.be/0qCUdrXyquQ?si… via @YouTube
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@AtlasShrug1 @PhotonBull Seriously the s&p500 is like 1% from ath and people are saying this is worse than 2008? Folks need to Breathe and derisk in the next leg higher.
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Not even close, I was investing professionally then, it was more trying than 2000-2002 bc at least back during that period housing prices continued to rise and we never got a consumer recession. Just capex. 2008-2009 was the biggest shitstorm ever with the exception of the Great Depression. Maybe the mid 70s come close but at least them you could hide inflation assets. GFC there was nowhere to hide but cash.
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As someone who has absolutely no experience or memory from the market that year, I have to agree!
CuiBono@CuiBonoCapital
This is arguably worse than 2008
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@AtlasShrug1 @TheStalwart @Emily_Sundberg Dont u think there are still good opportunities at relatively ok valuations? I see stocks like VLX or PENG that have been frothy and a consolidation was warranted. But i wouldnt say their earnings will just go lower from here forever…
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@TheStalwart @Emily_Sundberg It is an erroneous message. The trade is over, there will be countertrend rallies, but those are opportunities to sell now. Yet most will be chasing, only to get rug pulled yet again.
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This is such an important message from @Emily_Sundberg @emilysundberg/note/p-207434588?r=h8n&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@emilysundberg…
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Probably one of the best accounts in here . Objective thoughts, respectful (quite unusual in X) and dishing out free alpha.
Outlier Capital@outlierrcapital
Market has been so crazy I didn't realize I hit 3,000 followers! Thank you all so much! If you're new here... Little bit about me: I recently started a small long/short hedge fund (which I am still trying to grow) after having one of the craziest years I have seen anyone have on X since just about a year ago I am neither a bull nor a bear. I am objective and open minded and try to navigate the market to the best I can and share my thoughts... I've posted many great trades of all kinds in the past year: growth, deep value, momentum, commodities, momentum shorts, fundamental shorts, and some thoughts about macro that were right more often than not. I think my style is unique. I don't really fit in a box in the hedge fund world or the retail world or with my view on markets in general. Hope I can continue providing value and you get something from my content in one way shape or form. Appreciate all of you that interact with my content. Means more than you can imagine. OC 💙
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@SunvMikey I feel monday will still be a flush down to shake out as many people as possible. Then a short term relief rally at least!!
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Everyone on X calling for us to crash next week makes me bullish tbh. Market has a way of surprising people. Add into it alot of bullish options flow and the way overdone sell off and I think we are ripe for a bounce very soon
Also think institutions will front run Google earnings. IMO all the hyperscalers will increase capex. Once the market sees increased capex retail will jump on board. So I think we start running before Google earnings as institutions will already know if capex is going to increase or not.
CapitalFlow@CapitalFlowApp
Whales are aggressively front-running $SNDK, unleashing an absolute avalanche of high-conviction call premium straight into the ask!
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@outlierrcapital Lets bury the head in the sand! The Ostrich Strategy :)
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@cesarsroy Lol neither you nor I want to know the answer to that question
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I cannot underestimate the importance of the 10Y not breaking out here.
If it does...
Good luck soldier
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@outlierrcapital Id love to see it test 50 from above into earnings.
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Honestly surprised my king 🍋 is up today...
Keep betting on the superglue and screws in data centers trading at 200x sales
I will bet on the companies actually using AI to disrupt industries (with no capex required 😉) $LMND
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@AtlasShrug1 And how does the short puts count in the equation? Maybe their market value is 100k but the delta exposure might be 1m. Are u using -100k or -1m when caculating the 15% ? Just curious :)
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@cesarsroy Gross includes cash/t-bills which stand at about 85% of liquid assets right now.
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Picked up some $AMBA for the humanoid basket today to get me to about 50% net plus or minus. Still running only about 15% gross equity exposure.
Today was a great alpha day, green longs and red shorts. If only every day could be like that lol.
Have a good weekend.
—JG
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@outlierrcapital Thank you for the free alpha you deliver.! If only i followed more haha
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Market has been so crazy I didn't realize I hit 3,000 followers! Thank you all so much!
If you're new here... Little bit about me:
I recently started a small long/short hedge fund (which I am still trying to grow) after having one of the craziest years I have seen anyone have on X since just about a year ago
I am neither a bull nor a bear. I am objective and open minded and try to navigate the market to the best I can and share my thoughts...
I've posted many great trades of all kinds in the past year: growth, deep value, momentum, commodities, momentum shorts, fundamental shorts, and some thoughts about macro that were right more often than not.
I think my style is unique. I don't really fit in a box in the hedge fund world or the retail world or with my view on markets in general.
Hope I can continue providing value and you get something from my content in one way shape or form.
Appreciate all of you that interact with my content. Means more than you can imagine.
OC 💙
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