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🔱 1u | Anthony Kay u3.5 Strikeouts (-140) @ DraftKings Kay vs LHH, he has what it takes to do well, he’s been crazy with a 38.8 K% and just 1 walk allowed in 21 AB. vs RHH, he only has an 8.7 K% and a huge 16.2 BB%, those (stats are from 80 AB so that's more than enough data). SDP is probably rolling out a RHH-heavy lineup here, so that’s not a great spot for him to rack up SOs. SDP has been mid against LHPs. They’ve allowed Skubal (6 SO) in 74 pitches, Yusei Kikuchi (8 SO), and Framber Valdez (5 SO). But you can’t compare Anthony Kay to Skubal, and when you watch film from the Kikuchi game, they were getting killed by the Splitter and Curveball. Same goes for Framber, who was finishing them with the Sinker & Curveball — Kay doesn’t throw any of those pitches, just the Sinker & rarely. SDP have limited guys like Ranger Suárez (2 SO), Matthew Boyd (4 SO), and Noah Schultz (2 SO). Schultz is literally his teammate, has a similar arsenal, and is a high SO pitcher who handles both LHH and RHH well, and he still struggled. Kay’s only gone over this line twice all year, against KCR & MIL. That KCR game was just him farming Vinnie Pasquantino for 2 SO, Kyle Isbel for 2 SO, and Jac Caglianone for the last 2 SO. All of those guys are LHH, which he’s not getting here. He’ll probably be around 75–85 pitches again. I don’t really see him getting to 4 unless SDP get batters get horny & swing at funny shit today. #MLB #SportsBetting #BettingTips #GamblingTwitter #Odds #FreeBets #BettingOdds #Parlay #Baseball

NEW: Sources who have reviewed the betting data told @PeteNakos that, dating back to 2022, Brendan Sorsby placed more than 10k wagers and at one point averaged 20 bets per day. Sorsby placed bets across multiple states, using a range of gambling apps. on3.com/news/texas-tec…

Link to tail: upside.tools/go/5w74md Play #1 - Gordon UNDER 22.5 P+R+A: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools: Pinnacle -137. Novig -150. etc. Novig is laying -150 on this. That's the sharpest exchange in the market and they want this under at heavy juice. Optimizer has it hitting 57.4%. Breakeven on a Pick6 3 man is 54.95%. That % comes from devigging the books pricing this exact line — strip the vig and that's what the market actually believes. 28 cent discount from where the sharp money lives. That's the gap we're exploiting.

@Amonahan We need a $1B dollar business idea right now