Cristian Strat

Things with convex payoffs: - Reputation that puts you on the radar of smart people - Strong network - Valuable information flow - Starting companies - Joining fast-growing companies early - Expertise in high-growth industries - Trying new things and cutting losses - Integrity

@pronounced_kyle 🙋‍♂️

Who has read this book? I just finished it and want to start a spoiler-heavy groupchat. I have Theories

I am a proud US citizen and founder of a successful startup that employs 94 employees in the US and 180+ employees globally. I was in Dubai on a business trip meeting with financial institutions to help them fight financial fraud in the region, but now I am stranded. I expected the @usgov to do something to get US citizens out but I haven't seen any meaningful action. After 4 days of adrenalin and constant fear, I feel demoralised and abandoned by our government. It’s difficult watching other countries – UK, Israel, Spain, Italy and India – repatriate their citizens or ensure that commercial flights continue operating to bring them home. I became a naturalized US citizen because I believe in the American dream, and the idea that in a crisis, America never leaves its citizens behind. I see that American dream being shattered not just for me, but for tens of thousands of other Americans left stranded. I have 3 requests of our government: 1. Can the @usgov ensure the commercial airlines don't cancel US bound flights? I've booked a dozen flights to leave Dubai and ALL of them got canceled, even as flights to other countries continue operating. 2. If that is not possible, can the USG organize planes, commercial or military, to evacuate Americans out of Dubai and the surrounding region? I saw a very hopeful note from the Assistant Secretary of State for Global Public Affairs which states, “the US State Dept is in touch with 3,000 Americans and that we should call 1-202-501-4444 for assistance with departure options.” But that is unfortunately not accurate. I am enrolled in Step and have only received generic messages. Further, on calling that number, the message you get is: "Please don't rely on the USG for assisted departure or evacuation at this point. There are currently no evacuation flights at this time." 3. With funding cuts to the US consulates and with attacks on US embassies in the region, there’s no one that Americans can reach out to in the broader GCC region. Can we set up an emergency hotline within the US that actually works, and that has someone who is taking down more details? @SecRubio just stated that there are 1500 Americans who have contacted asking for assistance to evacuate. How did they do that because I am completely at a loss on who to call? I called up 1-202-501-4444 and all I got is a generic message. Myself and other Americans need help getting back home.

@FrankieIsLost Any chance someone can curate the leaderboard / remove cheats? I was thinking of giving it a try, but not sure what's a good legitimate score.

this is a really great test for AI tool proficiency, since it requires working with long-running tasks, multi-step reasoning, tool use and iterative debugging. here's a leaderboard for it if you want to enter the arena:

@ComputerHistory collection item: computerhistory.org/collections/ca…

Found this gem on OpenCHM: The "Electronica CIP-03" is a Romanian clone of theTimex/Sinclair ZX Spectrum computer based on the MMN-80 CPU, an Eastern European clone of the Zilog Z80 microprocessor Gift of @AFiscutean

@eightyhi @Kalshi Is Kalshi allowed to list such a contract? DCMs must show contracts satisfy an "economic purpose test" and steer clear of gambling, among other things. One can argue many sports-related markets pass the test (e.g, hedging utility), but a literal coin toss surely fails, no?

I am genuinely proud of @Kalshi for not listing this market, and not going down the path of markets based on "synthetic" risk. Meaning, markets that are purely luck based, like coin tosses, roulette, slots. The market would certainly be successful, drive some growth, and make a great chunk of change for any exchange. Leaving that money on the table is the right thing to do here.

I've worked with @dwr since the early days of Coinbase, I'm an investor in Farcaster, built on top of Farcaster, and joined the Farcaster team with Dan as my manager. I'd easily work for Dan again and I have context across 12 years vs any insane hit pieces farming engagement

@mirza This post is embarrassingly inaccurate, beginning with the title and key facts about the outcome. The framing is incredibly malicious/libelous. All this to farm likes? Disgusting.

@maxboonen We (the US) set up many of these international courts and laws because they are in our best interest. Revise some sure, but "end" all and you're left with what?

@EghosaO I’m sorry for your loss… 🙏

Nowa Omoigui, MD (1959-2021) and Moira Omoigui (1962-2025). Sharing memories of happy times. May their souls RIP.

@jazzychad can you do surface-stable dithering? :) youtube.com/watch?v=HPqGaI…

Actually, *I* invented dithering

@EvgenyGaevoy We need a proper eval (log-score / cross-entropy loss / ignorance score), but if you want to compare against other people/media you have to pick single points in time at which to eval (e.g., probs at 7 days before resolution).

I think people are very confused about prediction markets “accuracy” Prime example is US elections. No, polymarket did not “predict Trump winning”. It was more accurate (!) than other sources. In order to have a claim you have predicted something you can’t say “Trump is 60% likely to win”, you have to say “Trump will win” (or have a claim that is very close to 100%, which 60% is just not, it’s still more of a coin flip)

I’m looking for a new Chief of Staff to work with me at Coinbase. It’s a unique role. And I’m not going to lie, it’s a tough one. But it gives a level of ownership and growth you’re unlikely to get anywhere else. Requirements: • Exceptional communication • Highly analytical, structured thinker • Fast mover • Strong, organized leadership • Solver of hard problems • High EQ • Grit and determination • Immune to change and volatility • Be all-in on our mission What you’ll do: • Become an extension of me. Help prepare or act as a proxy for key engagements and decisions • Lead mission critical projects • Proactively solve problems before they escalate • Build narratives for internal and external sharing • Act as a trusted advisor to our leadership team • Help me and Coinbase operate at peak efficiency • Play a key role in updating the financial system If this sounds like you, we’d love to hear from you. Link to apply below. (Please don’t DM me😀)

@petejkim who hurt you?

When you suggest a feature and all you hear back is "it’s already on our roadmap", what they really mean is "we don't care, stop talking." 9/10 times it’s not even on the roadmap or it’s in p999. If it actually mattered, they’d be digging in with questions to test their assumptions and to make sure what they’re building matches your needs.

@PaulRBerg just ftw

I've stopped using `package.json` scripts justfiles everywhere github.com/casey/just

@528736_ nipple keyboard? 🤨

@BurakYngn Isn’t it strange that such a worldly skill - making sound decisions in the real world - is mostly genetic? Shouldn’t it be closer to some kind of highly refined experience than to a born ability?

@cgst Unfortunately it’s mostly genetic imo… Beyond that, I think it’s mostly just touching grass and engaging with reality.

Ok people are fighting about IQ again so I made a Claude artifact, as one does. I set judgment to correlate 0.5 with income and 0.2 with IQ. When you do this, IQ ends up predicting income, but barely (~0.1 correlation), similar to the studies. Link here: claude.ai/public/artifac…

@niftynei the AI is making us think

im upset at how the vibe coding machine is revealing the unspecificity of my visions

Genz commie baristas with bull nose rings in this cafe look at me on the laptop as if i'm the representative of the AI that is going to automate them out of a job and they're not wrong