CT

@GavinSBaker @DAlperovitch Tried to look it up or tried to get employed in the industry ?

@DAlperovitch I actually tried and nothing came up.

The argument for selling deprecated GPUs to China: Selling them less advanced GPUs than we have in America decreases the odds that they develop more advanced GPUs than America that go down a different, more power intensive tech tree. Pro national-security.

@LukeGromen @johnarnold With that starting framework, how do you view the latest leaks re 3 phase proposal / negotiations? Iran feeling the pinch or just more playing for time until the rubber hits the road ?

@johnarnold Losing 10m b/d of oil supply every day means every day that goes by without a resolution will cause western economies to converge toward the Iranian economy The former head of the IRGC said this was exactly Iran’s strategy on Iranian state TV about a week into the war.

We've reached the point in the war when neither side has a good card to play and both think they can wait the other out, which would seem like a manageable stalemate except that the oil market is losing circa 10 million barrels of supply each day.

@OilHeadlineNews A) Why all caps for a headline which is already 24h old ? B) Why all caps for a headline which is a fart in a wind tunnel ?

OPEC+ TO RAISE OIL OUTPUT TARGETS BY 188,000 BPD FROM JUNE

@ConvexDispatch AV is too far away for htz. But even so why would a company with a huge legacy debt burden be the one to benefit ? Wouldn’t an EV maker choose a company with a clean balance sheet? And who is hiring a car if we have AV? Just get AV Ubers instead? It’s just narrative nonsense.

@chazt1995 I think if they deploy AV solution well while business can change overnight in term of valuation

Follow-up thought on $HTZ. One really interesting angle the management should look at: once Hertz goes deeper into autonomous driving and robotaxis through Oro, all those cars will generate a massive, proprietary dataset on real-world driving, fleet utilization, charging patterns, maintenance cycles, and customer behavior. That data is extremely valuable for training AI models. And the best part? $HTZ is not a car manufacturer, so this is clean, unbiased, real-world fleet data that no OEM or AV company currently has at this scale. It’s the kind of proprietary data goldmine Reddit has successfully monetized through big licensing deals. If Hertz can figure out how to package and monetize this data layer (either directly or through partnerships), it becomes another high-margin revenue stream on top of the fleet operations business. @BillAckman this feels like the kind of hidden optionality that could make the re-rating even more powerful. I’m just throwing ideas out there. Hope management is already thinking about it. What do you think - data monetization the next quiet upside in Hertz?

@ElliotDodson Probably an important distinction between metals and miners depending on type of move… in a sharp liquidation it all goes down, in a gradual grind (higher in oil, lower in risk) metal likely outperforms given the processing and supply issues that are coming visible…

Key question on my mind Either now or Vsoon the reality of the situation will start to take a grip, oil reaction in the last couple of days likely reflects that. Are 'economically sensitive' metals like copper going to be back on the chopping block - do we get a dip to buy?

@jambox07 @joe_yer99 David Brent’s influence knows no bounds

@joe_yer99 i never knew piers was such a sassy diva

Me, at school, when the English teacher asked me to read out last nights homework.

@rickjeff78 @Osint613 It strikes me as odd that people think a country who has lost hundreds of bn (maybe tn?) in lost economic potential over the last few decades due to ideological pursuit of nuclear weapons will now definitely do the “economically rational” thing and give up pursuit of said nukes.

@Osint613 The global economy will be worse on #2. They are clearly taking #2. Anyone who thinks they will just throw up their hands has rocks for brains.

This is Iran’s core dilemma now. Both choices threaten the regime. Option 1: Take the deal The economy needs it. The blockade is biting, the rial is collapsing, shortages are growing, salaries are delayed. But giving up the nuclear file means losing deterrence and weakening support from the IRGC hardliners. Option 2: Refuse the deal They keep ideological support and hardliner backing. But the economy keeps sinking. Within 3 months, losses near the full $56 billion annual budget. Unrest could spiral beyond control. Which way IRGC?

@VKMacro Yeah very good note. The question it hinted but didn’t really ask or answer is when does the inventory lever run out and cause the demand destruction necessity to triple (not predicting it, but is it 1/2/6 months of current deficit)

JPM oil note is very good. The most surprising to me was their ME demand destruction number Genuinely can’t believe it’s so big

@DelB0yTr0tter Yes - that seems reasonable over medium term certainly. I’m half sized in metals/miners now with a plan to buy aggressively in event of a “sell everything” liquidation event, but if/when that doesn’t happen I (and plenty like me) will contribute to the rise by chasing it up!

@DelB0yTr0tter Love the conviction… does the current +1 correlation of metals to spy/qqq not mean those slightly offset one another? Or is this a timeframe that allows for that to “correct” to its more traditional relationship?

LONG VIX SHORT SPY SHORT NDX LONG XLE SHORT TLT LONG GLD/SLV (miners too)

@rev_cap Isn’t it more of a pitch to not sell in response to whatever it is he’s about to do …

@dampedspring Although means the prospect of an accelerated release / raise has gone … 1 week is still some time for a renewed squeeze imo covered half short at close

$Car bumped its earnings release up to 4/29. Not bullish

@toglesby27 @spotgamma They will be limited by insider sales restrictions ahead of results… so we will either find out in the next day or two (2 weeks to earnings plus 2 day filing requirement) or will only happen post filing of results (early or not) by which time company could have front run them…

Also, everyone is lauding the Hedge funds for a well-executed squeeze, but they have to monetize sometime, somehow. Remember $BBBY - Cohen was pumping the stock by suggesting that he was buying more calls when he was actually selling hand over fist. I suspect we are going to turn around one morning and see the big two have moved a BUNCH of stock. $car

$CAR Our data shows positive gamma for buyside <~$650 and negative gamma above that due (retail?) short calls. Pentwaters Deep-ITM calls ($85 risk reversal): +$355M ~600K share-eq at Δ≈1 seems to still be on From my understanding there can't be ATM offering due to earnings blackout ~5/11.

@spotgamma Would typically be post close or pre open but yes once headlines have been released publicly there is no mnpi to cause the blackout

@chazt1995 they can do that immediately after headline?

@ConvexDispatch @Kacper_PK_CH @Noalgos When you say fleet value are you including the huge amount of debt that is held against the fleet ? And the cost of that debt (and junior debt) vs the operational profits of the business ? And the forward value of those assets as they realise depreciation of ice vehicles

@chazt1995 @Kacper_PK_CH @Noalgos At around 4$ a share they are trading close to their fleet value and they have shown first positive EPS in Q2. So I think as a turnaround play it's interesting. But I do agree at current pricing a lot of short term potential is priced in :D

Last short squeeze in $CAR - Avis Budget Group was .. The end of 2021. 😉

@ConvexDispatch @Kacper_PK_CH @Noalgos But that means that the stock will be worth $2-3 in the upside case

@ConvexDispatch @Kacper_PK_CH @Noalgos They do have a chance to use the meme bid to issue stock, improve the balance sheet and give them some runway for a turnaround though