0xSilence.

#相信相信的力量

人生最好的活法其实就两句话，在自己的世界里大放异彩，把自己当回事，你的感受比道理重要。在他人的世界里，顺其自然，别太把别人当回事，他的课题让他自己背负就好。

應該是這招讓我打到我的目標的

$BTC check it! Talking about the two levels I marked on the chart 5 days ago: 80.7k and 84.3k. I calculated these levels using Fibonacci, Pivot Points, and Trendlines. The 80.7k zone already helped me execute a SHORT setup that hit TP1 at 4.2/10R as planned. For me personally, 4.2R is not an exceptionally high expectation trade, but I believe it’s a dream level performance for most traders. If you simply stay disciplined and always trade according to your Risk Reward (RR) plan, you’ll clearly understand what I mean. Simply put: when trading with proper RR, if you risk 1R = $1k per trade, my setup just delivered $4,200 in profit. Does that mean anything to you? Back to $BTC, as I mentioned in the previous post, I’m still expecting a correction during #NYO. I didn’t share this trade live because I anticipated 81.1k would hold. Once price returns to the 84.3k area, we’ll look to enter. If price continues lower instead, it’s straightforward: wait for the H4 candle to close below 80.7k for confirmation, then look for a clean entry signal around the 81.3k zone to take a safer SHORT position. Goodluck

at the beginning of every crypto bull market to create wealth effect + bring back retail attention, you need: - one crypto major to go parabolic - one crypto meme to go parabolic in 2017/18 it was btc & xrp in 2020/21 it was eth & doge in 2023/24 it was sol & pepe

🙅‍♂️ I'm not expecting crazy returns from $BTC in the next Bull Cycle (2027-2029) 👉 Each cycle #Bitcoin shows diminishing returns: 3200x -> 623x -> 119x -> 22x -> 8x In the 2027-2029 Bull Run I expect a 4-5x from $BTC From ~$40k (Bear Market Bottom) to $160-200k (Cycle Top) 📍

$BTC 1D chart MA100 -> MA200 A Classic Bull Trap in a Bear Market 🧐

While you're hyping $BTC recovering to $82K, you're already in the trap Every time RSI hit 70 since Q3 2025, a dump of at least 36% followed The 200-day MA is still overhead. Lower highs still intact. Macro unchanged Position carefully

什么？你跟我说 因为资金费率为负，所以 空头积累过多，可能导致比特币直接冲历史新高？？？ 名牌看空，这段上涨 就是非常经典的榨取市场流动性的手法，资金费率为负 确实会短期刺激上涨，但 你需要理解这种上涨能坚持多久，仅靠资费为负，那就是多头的鱼尾行情～ 目前认为最适合做空的位置就是86附近，进场头仓，然后上去了就满满加仓～📉

节后首推 熊市背景下，历史4次，BTC均受到200均线压制，这次会会怎样？我主观认为不会例外 勿要FOMO，不要上头哇！

$BTC How far can this rally go ? We already established that this cycle shows many similarities to the last one, so let’s look at the previous bull trap. During the 2022 bear market, we saw a relief rally of around 46% before price dropped another 68% and eventually formed the bottom. This time, we’re currently up around 40%, which suggests there could still be some room to the upside if history repeats. This is typical in every bear market. Price pushes higher and breaks through resistance levels one after another. This continues until sentiment shifts and people start calling for the end of the bear market and the four year cycle. And every single time, those people get rekt. Honestly, if you call for the bottom after 3 months, you deserve to get liquidated.

I’ve said it since the earliest days of @base Base’s biggest edge over every other chain was never being the biggest casino like @solana. It was becoming the home for real-world companies, real products, and fundamentally strong projects with actual crypto use cases. And if you take the time to study which projects performed the best on Base, a pattern becomes obvious. It’s always the strongest fundamentals. Look at projects like: • Virtuals • Aerodrome • KTA • Venice And many others The biggest winners on @base have consistently been real companies building real infrastructure, real products, and real utility, not just empty speculation. That’s what makes @base different. And now we’re seeing it again with $LFI. Not even a week old, already with over 100M+ committed to the fund, built by the team behind one of the largest U.S. property tax lien hedge funds. This matters because it’s not limited to the crypto space, but it’s operating in both tradfi and web3, in a market that’s arguably bigger than crypto itself, bringing outside capital interest and flows. Especially after the CLARITY Act compromise text and the growing regulatory push against stablecoin yield products. Yield will need to come from real-world cash flows. And that’s exactly where projects like @lienfiapp position themselves: • real-world yield • real assets • real cash flows • accessible onchain This is the direction the market is heading. And I genuinely believe Coinbase and Base understand this. Because the path for Base to become a multi-hundred-billion-dollar chan is not by competing with Solana on pure gambling and being a decentralized casino. It’s by becoming the default chain for real-world companies and startups that actually benefit from blockchain rails. And we’re already seeing signs of it. The latest @base and @ycombinator batches have some extremely high-caliber founders and startups. I believe many future 9fig and even 10fig companies will come out of this. Personally, I think $LFI has a realistic path toward becoming a 10fig company if execution keeps matching the vision. And there is no better team than @lienfiapp’s for this. And even the conservative case still points toward a very large outcome. Lock in on @base. I think the next generation of serious crypto companies will be built here.

Jesse Livermore mapped this pattern 100 years ago He made $100 million shorting the 1929 crash using this exact framework Livermore's Speculative Chart maps how smart money distributes to retail before a major top We're at stage 6-7 - the first pullback after the trap

不要嘲笑任何一个股，也不嘲笑任何一个赛道 踏准靠自己的认知 知识目前已经因为ai没有太大门槛 风水轮流转

过去一年的 $btc 四次RSI超买。

short btc here 理由：市场对saylor的买入预期过于乐观，刚刚saylor那条推可能成为调整预期的转折点

$LITE 最新一季财报以及 Q&A集合 结论：在我看来财报不错，营收略低于市场预期，但利润率超预期。需求强劲，供需缺口进一扩大。 加了一点 $LITE 。 核心数据： 1️⃣营收： 8.084 亿美元，较去年同期大增 90.1%，创历史新高。 2️⃣非 GAAP 毛利率： 47.9%，较前一季的 42.5% 显著改善。 3️⃣分部营收： 组件业务营收 5.33 亿美元（同比增 77.3%）；系统业务营收 2.75 亿美元（同比增 121.1%）。订单情况： OCS因为原材料受限，产能受限，订单积压量已超过 4 亿美元，能见度已排至 2028 年。 4️⃣Nvidia 直接投资。Q3 现金及短期投资增加 至 $31.7亿。 5️⃣新建第五座 InP 晶圆厂：3月宣布收购北卡罗来纳州 Greensboro 的第五座 InP fab，正在将 GaAs 产线转换为 InP，为未来数年增长提供产能。 Q&A 精华： 1️⃣EML 供需缺口： Hurlston：需求端持续超前，供需缺口目前 >30%（上季度说25-30%）。正在推进产能爬坡，计划 EML 单位出货量从 Dec'25 到 Dec'26 同比增长50%以上。泵浦激光约束甚至比 EML 更紧，是"意外的"需求爆发。 2️⃣Scale-Across 机会： 泵浦激光进入光放大器，multi-rail 架构下每个节点需要更多泵浦激光。这个市场 Lumentum 认为可能比 EML 机会更大。 3️⃣OCS 进展： 目前两大主要客户贡献大部分 OCS 量，正在接近锁定新的额外赢单，规模与已宣布的 OFC 大单相当。供应链紧张是当前主要瓶颈，而不是需求。 4️⃣Q4 增长驱动： Q4 环比增量超过一半来自 components（EML、scale-across）；transceivers 是另一大增量，1.6T 执行领先，但受外部元器件供应限制当前仍在欠发货；OCS 贡献持续增加，CPO 和 scale-up 贡献尚在初期。 5️⃣CPO 垂直整合： ELS（External Light Source）模块可以让 Lumentum 服务不熟悉光学的芯片设计客户，是"马上就要发生的"新赢单，正接近可以公开谈论的阶段。Scale-up CPO 预计2027年底开始出货。 6️⃣Oversupply 风险： Hurlston：感觉 oversupply 风险很低。客户正在寻求延展现有长期合同，若有 oversupply 预期，客户早就不会这么积极谈续约。当前的定价能力也是供需未平衡的信号。 7️⃣LTA 结构： 正在与主要客户就泵浦激光产能协商，包括预付款、take-or-pay、价格提升等多种形式，本质是让客户分担 CapEx 风险，换取长期供货保障。

The great @toady_hawk is hosting @MLeeJr today at 2:30 PM ET on ZEROPOD LIVE to discuss LienFi and the $LFI launch. Register to attend the live recording below. luma.com/hrfuel5y

1/ Announcing the launch of LienFi ($LFI) $LFI is now live for trading on @base LienFi is building modern capital rails for one of America's most established and overlooked yield markets: property tax liens CA: 0x3722264aB15a1dfCe5a5af89e6547F7949A8ABA3 More below 👇

BREAKING: Solana Foundation Launches Pay.sh in Collaboration with @GoogleCloud

Today at 3 PM ET, @mleejr will be joining @latenightonbase to discuss LienFi and the $LFI launch. Streamed live on 𝕏.