Ella Papanek

Hal Finney

@peanut_bettor @goldenpants013 @spanky @Sports__Proj :)

Dear @spanky if this is not admitted into the gambling hall of fame at bet bash, it is not a legitimate marker of history. The second "OK" by @Sports__Proj is art at the highest level. If "Ricky Snot" Johnson gets in for running a PPH in 1978 or something, this deserves in.

@NickPreszler Diff blind structures (loosely) serve as a skill sorting mechanism for poker, + I agree “game selection as strategy” is generally a good/interesting feature. but mechanism can’t be explicit. for trading you’d get sandbagging, fragmented + thin liquidity, taker-only pools, etc

Hear me out: Skill-based matchmaking for prediction markets. Orderbooks on large markets are split based on the rolling 30 day PnL of the users trying to participate. Limit orders from losing traders are only filled by buys from other losing traders. Similarly, winning traders only match with other winning traders. All trades are either fish vs fish or sharp vs sharp, never fish vs sharp. A truly peer to peer system.

Discussion we had this evening. In NYC we are bringing back the IRISH HELLO. AKA THE 90s. Here’s how it works. You and your friends all share location. Sporadically throughout the day (lunch break, coffee walk, after work, before work) you check to see where they are. If you’re close to someone, you just show up at their location. Aka bring them a coffee to work, stop by their apt unannounced, kick shoes off and spill the tea. Spontaneously grab a drink or dinner because you’re in the same vicinity. And even if you’re not, meet in the middle. It’s easy to get around here. We’re nostalgic for a time that does not exist and yet we have the means to create it and still we refuse. Everyone is too cool or too nonchalant or too scared to appear desperate. Who gives a fuck. I think we should all be a little more desperate. You’re alive. You need people and people need you. Be the one who calls. Be the one who makes the plan, who sets the tone. I guarantee you’ll be surprised at who shows up. It’s better to be the person who tries than the person who doesn’t. HELLO I AM HERE.

.@lightconexyz is hiring a trader/mm if you find it exciting to explore a greenfield category, to be the first trader in the world to think about and design strategies around impact markets, and to be part of a small team with seed-stage startup equity upside- please reach out!

@tommybytes Yeah I just framed in terms of the favored team, so your estimate would be 75-80

@chexmatrix having to make up that extra yard that many times would be a major disadvantage, so im thinking 20-25% maybe im reading the question wrong

If two average NFL teams played on a neutral field, but one team faced 1st & 11 on every new set of downs, what would you guess the win probability would be?

@professor042 @Atlantislq @Polymarket yeah calibration matters more than “accuracy”

@chexmatrix @Atlantislq @Polymarket Not sure but interesting to see that the accuracy is higher 1-month prior to an event than 12 hours before. Doesn't seem like a good thing

Polymarket accuracy is at 95.2% right now that’s insane World record. No media in history ever hit that accuracy. Okay, 91.1% accuracy over a month do you realize how crazy that is we’re literally predicting the future Massadoption here. prediction market supercycle.

@throwthedamball @kennedyfortgang Congrats!!!

A week off, but one magical night w/ Mrs Throwthedamball עוד ישמע בערי יהודה ובחוצות ירושלים קול ששון וקול שמחה קול חתן וקול כלה “Once again will be heard in the cities of Judah and in the streets of Jerusalem: the voice of joy and gladness, the voice of the bride and groom.”

@PlusEVAnalytics Also very curious to see the 3-leg approach. Because lots of cases where A and B are negatively correlated when C is true and positively correlated when C is false

@PlusEVAnalytics Agree on the second point - seems first parlay iteration will be RFQ and highly dependent on how competitive pricing MMs show.

I simultaneously love this and hate this. It's elegant but can't imagine it will attract any rec liquidity unless it's packaged differently. And if we can't use it to extract money from those dumber than us, what's the point of any of it?

Every person on this airplane is super intently studying the safety information card during the demo. I feel like I’m on a hidden camera show

Would you rather own x% of a startup that you think has y% chance of success or y% of a startup with x% chance of success? Assume x < y < 5 and "success" magnitude is equivalent

@joshqharris count me in

We're looking for Paid Beta Testers for Pixie Chess who are down to play a large number of matches for an hourly rate. Competitive chess experience valued. If you are a crypto trader, you are excluded from this. <3

@ColeJacobson32 Congrats!!

assume you've already controlled for age + income + how well you know them

Ive noticed on avg my female friends are less comfortable accepting generosity from me (paying for group dinner, picking up a gift/grocery/errand) than my male friends. “No you don’t have to” vs “haha thanks let’s run up the tab”. Curious what other people’s experiences are /why?

@tejfbanalytics In

am planning a sports analytics meetup in NYC sometime in mid july. if you’re in the area and would be interested feel free to reply to this or shoot me a message

Prediction markets let you bet on outcomes, but so much more is possible. This paper introduces Multiverse Finance, which splits the financial system into parallel universes so you can short the market today, but only if your candidate is going to lose the next election. 1/