dc_chilling

Everyone on fintwit should be required to show their returns before commenting on markets. Most of these fools don’t have a clue what they are doing. Stop clogging up my feed with your nonsense “technicals” and fear porn 😂

@Coffee__Capital Depends how high and how prolonged. But I can promise you this, if the strait is closed for a long time, we will have a global recession. A pretty bad one tbh.

At a high level, there are really 2 camps to be in right now: * Oil price surge will cause inflation and rates will end the year higher * Oil price surge will cause a global recession and demand will fall off a cliff, rates will thus end the year much lower It really all depends on how long the Strait is blocked.

@ToupeeCostanza @BURMESEMOM @KTinnotfromRI @DoulosOfJesus @conservmillen @grok No shit lol You think bro randomly went blind, deaf, and fell into a comma randomly? In a country where the leader fed his own uncle dogs? Let’s be real here.

@BURMESEMOM @KTinnotfromRI @DoulosOfJesus @conservmillen @grok yeah they might if they attempt suicide. what's your theory? why wouldn't NK just kill him? 1) why would they comatose him instead of kill him? 2) if he went into coma because of torture, why wouldn't they cover their tracks and finish him off?

I can’t believe it’s been 10 years. I remember when he was brought home in Trump’s first term. I will never forget his mother saying, “His bottom teeth looked like they had been rearranged with pliers.” He was basically braindead when they saw him again. I don’t even want to think about what he endured

@traderhc @MichaelPBento Respect that answer.

Fair enough . I got that one wrong. If the high yield came in below when-issued with indirects strong and a 2.76 bid-to-cover, that's a solid auction by any measure. I'll own the miss. No courses to sell though. Just a guy who misread the result and got checked for it. That's how it should work.

The 20-year auction just tailed 15 basis points. Day before FOMC. Let that register. The biggest bond buyers in the world are demanding significantly more yield to lend the government money long-term. Front end at 3.68% is screaming for cuts. The long end at 4.86% is saying "cut all you want, we don't trust your fiscal math." That's a bear steepener. The one curve shape the Fed can't fix. I think $TLT drifts to 86-87.50 this week even if Powell sounds dovish tomorrow. Long bonds near 52-week lows while the market begs for rate cuts is telling you everything. Everyone's watching the dot plot. Watch the 30-year yield after Powell speaks. If it doesn't drop on dovish language, rate cuts are broken. What's your read on the long end here?

@MichaelPBento @traderhc Lmao I agree. This dude has no idea what he’s talking about. Just trying to sell courses.

What on earth are you talking about, it did not tail. The high yield at auction was lower than the when issued. There was also robust demand from indirect buyers and the bid to cover was 2.76 which is very healthy. If it tailed yields would have spiked not caught a bid. I'm a macro bear and have a hawkish outlook on the Fed but this is just plain false information you are putting out there.

@Rory_Johnston Yep. Oddly enough the 2030s are likely incredibly bullish due to under investment lol

<taps sign> that's not how futures curves work!! And even if it WERE how futures curves work (which again, it isn't!), the WTI futures curve doesn't currently "get back to the $50s" until **2035** A decade. If you're going to misread the futures curve, misread it correctly.

@EconstratPB Imagine believing this nonsense. Warsh will do what Trump put him there to do and cut day 1

People are catching up.

@Wisdom_HQ Mushroom cloud

Drop a rapper NAME for him

@exec_sum 50% state tax 😂 This dude is smoking crack.

NEWS: Zohran Mamdani is proposing big changes to New York’s estate tax: - Tax rate: increase top tax rate to 50% (from 16%) - Threshold: lower to $750K (from $7M) Mamdani is currently facing a $5.4B city budget deficit so this is one way he’s trying to close the gap.

The jobs problem will overwhelm everything over time. Bond market is offsides. $tlt

@WhiteHouse Bro needs to work on interest rates lol None of this means much otherwise

With actions like promoting access to mortgage credit and removing regulatory barriers to home construction, President Trump is making it easier for Americans to buy homes, an integral part of the American Dream. 🏡🇺🇸

@calvinfroedge Subsidies that spur more demand and drive up the price even higher lol

We are so fucked

@markfny What do you think the fertilizer announcement will be from the gov? I assume subsidies but interested in your take

I can't wait for the new ag/fertz experts to grab on to the term: "nutrient harvesting."

Sounds like subsidies. Bullish $cf

@FastTradeKing Only way I think. Don’t have an SPR equivalent and already have the mechanism in place to subsidize farmers

My bet: fertilizer subsidies.

@srg444 @JerryFences @TJFullSend Exactly

@JerryFences @chilling_dc @TJFullSend Definitely don’t form a group first. To be clear we are not a group (in case that even comes up). Talk to the activist, tell him the story concisely and objectively, chart a course. And let’s revisit. DM me

Where are the $CHGG bros?

@BlacklionCTA Warsh is going to cut a ton imo Either because the war breaks the global economy or we continue down the deflationary unemployment spiral we’ve been on

Still think Warsh won't push for rate cuts at his first meeting and gleefully cut with a 1 vote majority if that's all he gets? (Note: It will likely be unanimous and may be >25bps).

@AndrewCdnpol @JerryFences Worst part is he could fix it all tomorrow and chooses not to. Buyback your shares, reopen review, sell the company

@JerryFences $chgg has lost 60% since Dan took over. We as bag holders pay dear price for his return.

At this point $CHGG is roughly 50% retail owned. I think there’s probably 10% ownership that’s active on Twitter. Company is not making the right decisions, has net cash and valuable assets. Board is not aligned with shareholders. Activist campaign wen?

@LizThomasStrat Market is way offsides lol We are getting 3-4 cuts this year. Either the war breaks everything and we emergency cut or it ends and we get the regularly scheduled cuts we were going to get anyway.

Make that ~70% now.

This energy crisis will get so out of hand that the fed will step in like they did during Covid

@JerryFences @srg444 @TJFullSend Up to you but grabbing an activist to run with it might expedite the process

@srg444 @chilling_dc @TJFullSend Would your preference by for us to form or engage an activist to lead? Have one in my already for the latter that I was going to setup a meeting with